MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Monday January 19 2026 (MLK day)Solid day. 2-0 / +$209
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Long Opinion on BABAI have been watching Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ( NYSE:BABA ) for a while, and to me this pullback looks far more like a reset than a breakdown.
From a bigger-picture standpoint, I like that this is happening while fundamentals are stabilizing rather than deteriorating. Valuation is still compressed relative to history, cash flow remains strong, and sentiment around China equities has been washed out. That creates a backdrop where I am more willing to trust a technical correction instead of assuming distribution.
Technically, the move from 117.60 to 192.67 corrected back into the 146 to 147 area, which is roughly a two-thirds retracement of the prior advance. That depth fits what Dow and myself consider a healthy correction, especially since it lines up with a former resistance level that now appears to be acting as support.
What really caught my attention was the behavior on 12/26/25. On the daily chart, price put in a failure swing and reclaimed 151.82. That breakout came with a clear expansion in participation, with 4H volume around 521K versus an eight-day average near 282K (the miniature prior move), which tells me this was more than just a mechanical bounce.
Momentum is starting to turn as well. MACD has flipped bullish and moved into positive territory, and on the 4H timeframe price is now holding above the 20-period SMA. I like to use the 20, 50, and 200 moving averages in harmony, and seeing price reclaim the short-term average is, to me, early confirmation that control is beginning to shift back to the upside.
If this keeps pushing, I would expect some pauses along the way rather than a straight shot up. First spots I am watching are 154.30 and 157.25, then 160.00. Anything beyond that depends on momentum, with 161.20, 164.25, and 166.36 as the next areas to keep in mind.
For now, my bias stays constructively bullish as long as price holds above the prior resistance and current support zone. A clean loss of that area would change the picture, but until then this looks like a continuation attempt rather than a failed rally.
Please feel free to share your opinions
Thanks,
SOLUSDT M15 Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description
BINANCE:SOLUSDT is currently trading inside a short-term discount zone after a corrective pullback, following a previous impulsive bearish leg. Price is reacting from a 15-minute Fair Value Gap while holding above sell-side liquidity, suggesting absorption and a potential bullish continuation toward higher intraday PD arrays.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 127.08
• Stop Loss: Below 126.80
• TP1: 127.39
• TP2: 127.86
• TP3: 128.23
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🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Price reacting from an unmitigated 15m FVG
• No bearish BOS confirming continuation to the downside
• Structure supports a corrective move transitioning into bullish expansion
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🧩 Summary
CRYPTOCAP:SOL shows signs of stabilization after mitigating sell-side liquidity and respecting a short-term discount zone. As long as price remains above the 15m FVG, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored with upside targets aligned toward intraday premium zones.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Short-term crypto sentiment remains constructive, with rotational inflows supporting high-liquidity altcoins. In the absence of negative catalysts, pullbacks into discount zones are more likely to resolve higher rather than extend lower.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
RIVER to 62 ?The bullish structure is evolving as the market shows clear signs of accumulation around the 33 level, which has acted as a strong demand zone.
Price action in this area is characterized by tight ranges and repeated reclaims of value, suggesting institutional absorption rather than distribution.
The volume profile confirms this behavior, highlighting a developing high-volume node that signals acceptance and accumulation.
Once price stabilizes above this base, the next logical upside target aligns with the 62 resistance, a prior rejection area and volume gap.
A successful break and acceptance above intermediate resistances would validate continuation toward that level.
Long trade
Pair GBPUSD
Buyside trade
Thu 22nd Jan 26
4.00 pm LND to NY overlap
Entry 1.35047
Profit level 1.35921 (0.647%)
Stop level 1.34810 (0.175%)
RR 3.69
GBPUSD — Sentiment & Narrative Analysis
Market Sentiment: Buy-Side Favoured (Conditional Continuation)
Higher-timeframe context shows sell-side liquidity already mitigated from the prior range, with price transitioning into acceptance above the key mid-range equilibrium. The market structure reflects a shift from corrective behaviour into controlled expansion, rather than impulsive distribution.
During the London–New York overlap, price held above the prior breaker / reclaimed resistance zone, signalling institutional acceptance rather than rejection. This overlap window typically serves as a validation phase, and the price's failure to re-enter the lower range suggests strong buy-side sponsorship.
Volume and execution clusters around the entry zone indicate absorption of residual sell orders, with price respecting the premium PD-array rather than seeking discounts. This behaviour is consistent with late-stage accumulation transitioning into continuation rather than exhaustion.
Psychologically, the market is positioned for a clean buy-side run toward resting liquidity above recent highs, with minimal incentive for price to rebalance lower unless the structure is invalidated.
Long trade
ONDOUSDT Perpetual (15-Minute)
Sentiment Summary
Bias: Short-term Buy-side (mean-reversion → continuation)
Session Context: NY Session PM
Structure Context: HTF corrective → LTF accumulation resolved
Market Context:
ONDO experienced a sharp sell-side expansion, aggressively clearing downside liquidity and reaching a clear discount extreme. That sell-off exhausted momentum and was followed by base-building and acceptance, signalling a transition from liquidation to accumulation.
Narrative:
After the sell-side sweep, price stabilised into a range, forming higher lows and reclaiming internal structure. The recent upside move shows bullish displacement and FVG creation, indicating that buyers are now in control on the lower timeframe. This behaviour suggests the market has completed its corrective phase and is rotating back toward value and prior supply.
Liquidity & Order-Flow:
Sell-side liquidity is fully harvested below the range
Bullish FVGs forming and holding as support
Buy-side liquidity resting above the consolidation highs acts as the draw
Execution Logic:
The buy-side bias is justified following discount mitigation + structural reclaim, targeting a rotation toward prior highs/imbalance.
Entry 5min TF
BTCUSDT M30 – Bearish Continuation From LTF FVG📝 Description
Bitcoin on the 30-minute timeframe is trading within a short-term corrective pullback inside a broader bearish rotation. Price has retraced into a 30m Fair Value Gap, suggesting a potential continuation lower rather than acceptance above value.
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📉 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bearish
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 89,340
• Stop Loss: Above 89,600
• TP1: 88,980
• TP2: 88,660
• TP3: 88,270 (Lower 30m FVG)
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🧠 ICT & SMC Notes
• Retracement into LTF FVG after impulsive sell-off
• Structure remains bearish with weak bullish displacement
• No confirmed bullish CHOCH on LTF
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📌 Summary
BTC is showing corrective behavior within a bearish structure. Failure to reclaim the 30m FVG keeps the bearish scenario active, with price likely to seek lower liquidity levels.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Short-term crypto sentiment remains cautious, with risk-off flows supporting corrective or continuation downside moves in Bitcoin.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
GOLD M15 Bullish Continuation From LTF FVG📝 Description
TVC:GOLD on the 15-minute timeframe remains in a bullish structure after a strong impulsive move. Price has retraced into a 15m Fair Value Gap while holding above a valid 30m bullish Order Block, signaling continuation rather than reversal.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 4,931.8
• Stop Loss: Below 4,919
• TP1: 4,947
• TP2: 4,958
• TP3: 4,967 (Buy-Side Liquidity)
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🧠 ICT & SMC Notes
• Clean bullish displacement confirms intent
• Pullback remains corrective
• Entry aligned with LTF FVG inside bullish leg
• Targets positioned at external Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)
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📌 Summary
Gold is showing healthy bullish continuation behavior. Holding above the 15m FVG keeps the bullish scenario valid with a draw toward higher liquidity levels.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Gold remains supported under risk-hedging demand and dollar sensitivity, reinforcing bullish technical continuation in the short term.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
GBPUSD M15 HTF FVG Support and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description
GBPUSD on the 15-minute timeframe has delivered an impulsive bullish expansion and is now consolidating above a fresh M15 Fair Value Gap. Price is holding above the pullback low, indicating acceptance above value and continuation potential toward higher liquidity.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the M15 pullback low and FVG base
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 1.3527
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3515
• TP1: 1.3537
• TP2: 1.3544
• TP3: 1.3554
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🧠 ICT & SMC Notes
• Strong bullish displacement confirming short-term order flow shift
• Price respecting M15 FVG as a support PD array
• No bearish CHOCH observed on lower timeframes
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📌 Summary
As long as price remains above the M15 FVG and the pullback low holds, bullish continuation remains favored with expectations of a draw toward higher buy-side liquidity.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With relative GBP strength and stable risk sentiment, short-term bullish continuation remains supported unless macro risk-off conditions emerge.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
GBPAUD: Another Bullish Confirmation 🇬🇧🇦🇺
GBPAUD leaves another bullish clue this morning,
after the release of the UK Retail Sales data.
The price formed a high momentum bullish candle
and violated a resistance line of a falling wedge.
Goal remains intact - 1.982
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XAU/USD 23 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis of yesterday where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed.
CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to current price action and is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,967.520.
Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued to print higher-highs subsequently printing a bullish iBOS.
You will notice that depth of internal low has reduced significantly. This will provide us with early indication of pullback phase initiation of all HTF's
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH and is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor this with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,967.520.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
EURUSD Swing Trade Idea...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
Happy New Year and long time, no see. I wanted to share my EURUSD swing trade idea for the week. This is just my technical analysis so please check the news and cross reference your own indicators.
I think it will buy and here is what I am looking at:
- Momentum has been picking up for the buyers considering the last few candles on H4.
- The candles have crossed and closed ABOVE previous resistance. This is a buy confirmation for me.
- Candle patterns on multiple time frames show buying confirmations.
- The stochastic is facing up, the fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange) and one or both lines have crossed above 80.
Additional information:
- Trade is active with additional buy stops in place.
- I will be using previous highs as buy stops and TPs and previous lows as my SL.
Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know what you think in the comments
Long trade Pair MNQH
Buyside trade
Thu 22nd Jan 26
5.15 am
LND Session AM
Entry 25689.50
Profit level 25883.25 (0.75%)
Stop level 25657.75 (0.12%)
RR 6.1
MNQH (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100, 15-Min) — Sentiment Summary
Bias: Buy-side (intraday continuation)
Session: London AM
Date/Time: Thu 22 Jan 2026, 5:15 am
RR: 6.1
Market Context:
The broader structure remains bullish, with price holding above value after a prior corrective phase. The market recently swept sell-side liquidity into a well-defined discount zone, completing a reset before London participation.
Narrative:
Following the sell-side sweep, price showed bullish displacement and acceptance back above intraday value during the London AM window. We assume this signals institutional re-engagement and a shift back into continuation mode rather than further mean reversion.
Liquidity & Order-Flow:
Sell-side liquidity below recent lows cleared and defended
Bullish FVG / value support respected on the retrace
Buy-side liquidity remains resting above session highs, acting as the primary draw
Execution Logic:
The long entry at 25,689.50 aligns with discount mitigation + bullish continuation, with a tight stop below the defended low. Targets are positioned into buy-side liquidity, offering strong RR relative to risk.
Invalidation:
A decisive bearish displacement and acceptance back below the defended lows/value would invalidate the buy-side bias.
Long trade
5min TF overview
Silver Futures (SI 5-Minute) — Sentiment Summary
Bias: Short-term Buy-side (tactical continuation)
Session: NY Session PM
Context: HTF bullish → LTF pullback completed → continuation attempt
Narrative:
Silver remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframes following a strong impulsive expansion. After clearing sell-side liquidity and completing a corrective pullback, the price has now reacted positively from a discounted area, printing a sharp bullish response during the NY PM window. This suggests the market has completed its mean-reversion phase and is attempting to re-align with the dominant trend.
Liquidity & Order-Flow:
Sell-side liquidity below the range has already been cleared and defended
Bullish FVGs have provided support on the retracement
Acceptance above short-term structure implies buyers regaining control
Execution Logic:
The buy-side entry is justified after discount mitigation + bullish displacement, targeting a rotation back toward prior highs and remaining buy-side liquidity. Risk is clearly defined below the recent swing low, maintaining the setup's asymmetry and trend alignment.
Invalidation:
A decisive bearish displacement and acceptance below the defended lows would invalidate the buy-side bias.
NZDCHF LONG Market Structure Bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Rejection Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 0.46000
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 125%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Long trade
USDJPY — 18-Tab Colour Framework (Buy-Side Execution)
Timeframe: 15 minutes
Session: London AM
Date: Thu 22 Jan 2026
Bias: Buy-Side
USDJPY
Bias: Buy-side (Continuation after accumulation)
Market Context: Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, with price trading above value and holding a premium structure.
🟦 TAB 1 HTF market context
Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish
Price trading above the HTF value
No HTF bearish displacement present
🟩 TAB 2 — Macro Structure
Expansion → consolidation → continuation
Prior impulse leg respected
No structural failure on higher TFs
Narrative:
Price accumulated during the Asian session before London engineered a sell-side sweep, clearing weak liquidity below the range. This was followed by clean bullish displacement, confirming institutional participation. Multiple bullish FVGs and a respected London order block provided support, allowing the price to re-price higher.
Execution Logic:
Entry was taken after FVG mitigation and bullish structure continuation, with the stop safely below the protected low. The trade aligned with London AM continuation statistics and avoided counter-trend risk.
Targets & Expectation:
Upside targets were aligned with buy-side liquidity above session highs, offering a favourable asymmetric risk-to-reward profile.
Trade Summary
USDJPY Buy-Side continuation after sell-side sweep and London displacement.
Structure intact, liquidity aligned, and targets resting above.
GBPAUD: Strong Bullish Imbalance 🇬🇧🇦🇺
GBPAUD looks oversold after a recent bearish wave.
I see a strong intraday buying imbalance on an hourly time frame
after a trap below a key horizontal support level.
The market may continue to recover and reach the 1.982 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAU/USD 22 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis of yesterday where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed.
Currently, CHoCH positioning remains the same
Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high.
CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,888.545.
Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterdays bias dated 21 January 2026.
Price has continued to print higher-highs.
Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH followed by bullish momentum, however, due to the insignificance of the pullback, I shall apply discretion and not classify as iBOS. This has been marked in red.
Price has once again printed a bearish CHoCH.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor this with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,888.545.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
CADCHF: Bearish Move From Resistance 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF appears bearish after testing a key daily resistance level.
A bearish violation of the neckline of a descending triangle pattern
indicates a local strength of the sellers.
I expect a retracement to 0.5733 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short trade Pair AUDJYP
Sell-side trade
Wed 21st Jan 26
NY Session PM
3.00 pm
Entry 107.081
Profit level 106.574 (0.47%)
Stop level 107.147 (0.062%)
RR 7.68
Higher-Timeframe Sentiment
Macro Bias: Late-stage Buy-side → Distribution Risk at HTF Supply
Execution Bias (for this trade): Sell-side justified at a premium.
4Hr TF
4H Market Structure Narrative
Primary trend: Clear bullish expansion from the April lows, with sustained higher highs / higher lows. Current location: Price has now returned to a major 4H resistance / prior distribution high (equal highs/range high).
Bearish / Caution Case (Distribution Scenario)
Warning signs if price fails to hold 107.00:
A displacement back below 107.00 increases the odds of a deeper pullback into the London range.
Market Narrative
Asia → London: Clean accumulation and higher-low structure. Liquidity was engineered during Tokyo, then London delivered displacement, breaking prior range highs.
London → NY: Buy-side liquidity above London highs was raided during the NY open. Price expanded aggressively, printing a session high of ~107.20.
Post-raid behaviour: Momentum stalled near the highs with inefficiency (FVGs) left below, suggesting either a continuation after mitigation or distribution before a pullback.
5min TF






















