Money printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard.
In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities.
In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this...
Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting:
First, SPX:
Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really.
Now, DJI/M2SL
There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came.
Long-term Inflation...
The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing...
If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing.
I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of...
The anxious moment when your investment goes through a period of slowdown or drop.
When everything is good, everyone is happy. Nobody thinks twice when a market is growing.
It's at that point of the first lower-low, when an investor loses their sleep. And it can be suffering when insomnia is prolonged.
The 2022 Recession will be remembered as the most confusing...
SPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea.
While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the...
Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!!
Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you!
How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing,...
Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar).
World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both...
US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared...
Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind.
This chart clears the picture.
On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO
On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX
modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart.
This chart tells us...
I have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad?
We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when...
Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it?
But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23?
And another question... have equities peaked?
For the past year, bonds have been...
Today, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’.
In addition to this, I wanted to...
World on terror in 2001, world on Russia in 2022.
Sticky inflation, explosive dollar and a tech bubble.
And a housing crisis brewing? Not a recipe for success.
I don't understand why anyone would expect actual, long-term growth from this exact point.
The chart above shows something peculiar. We have bearishly tried to escape the ribbon and failed (for now?).
Also...
In this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation.
After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money.
I am amazed from this chart. Mainly...
BLS published March PPI results this morning showing an increase of just over 11% year over year for $PPIFIS (Final Demand) or slightly more than 1.3% increase month over month.
This leaves critical information out and paints a partial picture as $PPIACO (All Commodities) reflects a full 20.46% increase year over year and over a 2.8% increase in March over...
I believe PPIACO (Producer Price Index)– it's RSI & BITCOIN are Correlated
PPIACO (Producer Price Index) is related to inflation .
Look at the points in witch its RSI or the direction starts to change for PPIACO. They correspond with bottom or tops or changes in direction for BTC . Fascinating and makes sense.
Black line is BTCUSD
Pink Line is PPIACO
RSI is of...
