Personally, I'm not doing a ton here beyond looking at cleaning up remaining December cycle setups and evaluating whether there are poo piles that should be looked at for the taking of tax loss in the margin account before year's end. Nevertheless, here's an outline of what's potentially playable in the coming week ... .
ADBE (81/49) announces earnings on ...
NVAX is currently expecting some volatility in the near future given by the prices of these options. Here is one with 43 days to expiry with a 46% margin or error! These incredible numbers translates into 15% cash on cash return in 43 days if not assigned! The delta of this option is at 16.44 which means for the writer or seller of this option, you have a ...
Another week of wasteland for premium selling, with EWZ again topping the volatility charts for non earnings plays, although I may go small with an IWM setup in the May monthly (it's the most volatile amongst the index ETF's, which ain't saying much). I've got one more short-term RUT/IUX setup on that I will need to address, but other than that, it's going to be ...
When volatility is low such as it is now in shorter term expiries, you have a couple of different choices when selling premium in broad-based market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA: (a) sit on your hands, waiting for volatility to pop to a level such that less-than 45 DTE setups are more profitable; or (b) look farther out in time for volatility to ...
As with the XOP play, selling premium where the volatility is and that's in gold issues (GDX, GG, GDXJ) and oil (OIH, XOP) right now.
I filled this earlier today for a $98 credit.
The current metrics are:
Probability of Profit: 72%
Max Profit: $90 per contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Notes: At the suggestion of FractalTrader (that you very much for your ...
With a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to ...
PCLN announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on this play before today's close.
As noted in my post early this week regarding this week's earnings play prospects, PCLN's options are somewhat illiquid, so look for a fill of any setup at or above the mid price and resist the urge to chase price for a fill ... . You can naturally play with ...
With the highest implied volatility out of the four indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000), the Russell 2000, RUT or IUX (symbology will vary by platform, apparently), offers good premium selling as an alternative to playing its ETF counterpart, IWM.
Given the value of the underlying and its accompanying options, having more "meat on the bone" allows you ...
TSLA announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on any volatility contraction play (short strangle/iron condor) before then. You'll naturally want to tweak these strikes if there is any movement during the market day ... .
Feb 19th 111/180 short strangle
Probability of Profit: 74%
Max Profit: $404/contract
Buying Power Effect: ...
DIS announces earnings today after market hours, so look to put on any setup before New York close.
Here are the two "classic" setups:
Feb 19th 82.5/100 short strangle
Probability of Profit %: 74%
Max Profit: $127/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Feb 19 77.5/82.5/100/105 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 72%
Max Profit: $86/contract
Buying Power ...
Unfortunately, I was fiddling around so much with setups in index ETF's and GLD last week that I didn't get a chance to do a single earnings play ... But it's all good.
Naturally, if volatility remains high in SPY, DIA, QQQ, and/or IWM, I'll continue to work those. However, while I'm waiting for some kind of bounce to occur to leg into the short call side of ...
And earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays.
GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after ...
NFLX announces earnings on Tuesday 1/19 after market, so look to put on any premium selling play shortly before NY close.
Here are two possible setups, which may have to be tweaked, depending on price movement in the underlying:
Jan 29 80/128 short strangle
Probability of Profit %: 77%
Max Profit: $246/contract
Buying Power Effect: ~$1041
Break Evens: ...
Next week is literally hopping with potential earnings announcement plays.
I've tried to pick out the ones that (1) have > 70% implied volatility rank; (2) offer greater than a 1.00 credit ($100) for the "classic" one standard deviation short strangle setup; (3) have fairly good liquidity with options prices; and (4) offer weeklies, but there are also a few ...
With an implied volatility rank of 76 and an implied volatility of 56, an XOP short strangle is a good premium selling play here, with the standard 45 day setup yielding about 1.00 in credit for only $275 or so worth of buying power.
Here's the setup:
Feb 19th 23/32 short strangle
Probability of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $97
Buying Power Effect: ~$275
Break Evens: ...
With a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR).
Here's my set up:
Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle
Max Profit: $150/contract