With a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to keep engaged without tying up buying power for substantial periods of time.
The setup metrics:
RUT Feb 29th 1740/1750/1965/1975
Probability of Profit: 82%
Max Profit: $98/contract
Buying Power Effect: $902
Notes: As you can see by the metrics, the probability of profit is great; the risk-reward is not. As with all setups of this type, there is typically a trade-off between probability of profit (which generally requires a wider setup) and your defined risk, which represents the max loss you would experience if you allowed the setup to go to expiration without doing anything in the event of a test of one of your sides ... .
All that being said, I generally treat these as scalps. Although I shoot for 50% max profit for the setup, I usually look to get out of the trade for a smaller profit if that 50% max isn't fairly immediately realized.
The setup metrics:
RUT Feb 29th 1740/1750/1965/1975
Probability of Profit: 82%
Max Profit: $98/contract
Buying Power Effect: $902
Notes: As you can see by the metrics, the probability of profit is great; the risk-reward is not. As with all setups of this type, there is typically a trade-off between probability of profit (which generally requires a wider setup) and your defined risk, which represents the max loss you would experience if you allowed the setup to go to expiration without doing anything in the event of a test of one of your sides ... .
All that being said, I generally treat these as scalps. Although I shoot for 50% max profit for the setup, I usually look to get out of the trade for a smaller profit if that 50% max isn't fairly immediately realized.
Comment:
Filled for a .98 credit.
Comment:
Out of the put side for a .05 debit with 7 DTE.
Comment:
Out of the short call side for a .35 debit, so I made .98 (total credits) - .40 (total debits) = .58 or $58/contract on that play; better than 50% max profit of the original $98 setup -- I'll take it.
