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Probability

One for the patient traders CHFJPY long 📈🙌Entry details are shown on the chart. Working the H1 time frame on this strategy. We're only looking for TP3. Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency. Last trade took six days to land. This strategy is one for those who can sit on their hands 😆 ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Long
by pow_removetheguesswork
Understanding draw down recovery 😬😥Morning traders. Middle of the trading week all ready! I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss a topic we all fear and we all find ourselves in at some point in our trading journey. That topic being draw down and your account in a loss of starting capital. The table I have drawn on the chart shows the amount of gain required to get an account back to break even depending on how big the draw down is on your capital. Scary stuff when viewed in a simple table format like and hits home just how big of task over turning losses could be. No trading system or strategy has zero losses or draw down and all strategies endure losing runs. To avoid excessive losses there is two crucial elements. Sounds obvious but cut losing trades quickly is the first element, second element is factoring probability into the trading strategy. Probability helps control risk management which in turns keep losses to a minimum, probability is obtained by carrying out back testing on your strategy. You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy. The example I am using for this Idea is on AUDCHF H1 timeframe and thanks to our built in strategy tester I can see if I traded this pair in the manner the strategy is set over the last 292 trades at 1% risk I am 22% down on my account. It would not take in the region of a 25% account gain to be back to near break even on my account!!! You don't need a built in strategy tester to gain this information you can also manually back test a strategy in order to avoid losses and to know if you are entering markets with a proven edge. A trading edge means your strategy creates bigger wins than losses. Which in turn means you avoid the situation shown in the table. To avoid hefty draw down don't enter the markets blind with an unproven strategy. Ensure you have back tested strategies with probability factored in to those strategies that way what is shown in the table wont apply to you then 👍 ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
Triangle breakout in BritanniaNSE:BRITANNIA The stock has fallen 10% from it's 52 week. The trend line acts as a strong support and resistance respectively. *Trade Confirmations* :- The monthly central pivot range is narrow indicating a trending month. :- Descending triangles have good success rates. :- Consolidation near the trend line. *Trade Setup* :- T1 - 3550 :- T2 - 3800 :- SL - 3350 Thank you for viewing my ideas and analysis. Read it completely for complete understanding. Follow me so that you'll get notified whenever I post some content. Let me know through the comment section if you have any doubts or feedbacks. All the best! Happy trading/investing :)
NSE:BRITANNIALong
by Omsai1238
BTC in 4H. two panoramas. English The theory says that its heading for a bearish triangle. we are in a trend continuity pattern. but its a probability, not a certainty. I think there is a 50/50. BTC can break up that resistance at 40,600 or try to look for levels close to 30,000 Español. La teoría dice que se dirige a un triangulo bajista. estamos en un patrón de continuidad de tendencia. pero es una probabilidad, no una certeza. creo que hay un 50/50. puede llegar a romper a la alza esa resistencia en 40600 o intentar buscar unos niveles cercanos a los 30.000
by xfrai3
NZDUSD ShortNZDUSD has surged to the upside due to RBNZ being more hawkish, however volume has subsided and I expect a short back to .72000 1. The previous times the kiwi has risen due to RBNZ a few days later it dropped back below where it rose from. (looking for a repeat) 2. Sell volume has been increasing 3. Kiwi is still range bound and with USD gaining strength - kiwi at top of range, this increases the probability of a short trade This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only
Short
by csohrab
How to use Chobotaru IndicatorOur indicator can now be used by everyone. There are a lot of indicators trying to predict what will be the range of the stock in the future. Some of the indicators, that are well known, are using STD of volatility like Bolinger Bands or using an advanced simulation like Monte-Carlo, and others that are using different methods. Our approach to this subject is different. There is an official volatility predictor called Implied Volatility. (I explained it in a different post) This number can be seen in the options chain in your broker platform. You don’t need to trade options to use this indicator. This indicator shows you a probability cloud, giving you the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. This can help in several ways like determine if your target price is possible, where to put stop-loss, you can also use other technical analyses, like support and resistance to choose which area is best for your trade. The sky is the limit. We tested it on 30(+/-10) days of small market cap and higher. In our testing, the price finished inside the range more than 80% of the time (the result are higher but I’m trying to stay conservative). The user can choose a different option’s time period than 30 days, but the longer the period the higher the chance for a rare event that is not currently priced in. The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model. In simple words, the prices of options give you some indication of how the market thinks the stock should perform. If you take the implied volatility and insert it into the indicator, you can see the probability range, transforming this data into a visual representation. What inputs do you need to enter? Instrument price – The current price of the stock or futures contract. In this example, the close price of the SPY on March 30, 2021, is 394.73 The interest rate – Searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value (of the day of the entry or day before). On 03/30/2021 the 3-month value was 0.02% Days to expire (minus trading holidays) – At the end of 03/30/2021, I searched for the option that is the closest to 30 days on the SPY. The option that ending on April 30, has 31 days, in this period we have a holiday “Good Friday”, so I subtract the original number of days from the holiday, 31-1 = 30 Implied Volatility – This number in your trading platform will usually be shown in a percentage, you need to enter a positive decimal number. In this example, the implied volatility of the option was 15.2%, the input is 0.152 The date – The last thing is the date of the entry, in this case, Day – 30, Month – 3, Year – 2021. This indicator can be used on daily bars and everything smaller than that. We recommend using it on daily bars. Try it for yourself on your charts and share your result, if you have any questions, tell us in the comments.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ZoharCho
4
$60,000 Explosion Big Short movie setupIn the movie, the big short Charlie Geller and Jamie Shipley took trades with options out of the money with low probability. This is an example of such trade, 100 options contract worth $6000 if SOS will run up again, this trade could make $60,000. If the price will move to $21, this trade could make $120,000 This also shows that options are leveraged, if you would like to buy the shares you would need to pay $39,000 for 10,000 shares. In this trade, the max loss is $6000, when buying the stocks the max loss is $39,000 How will it end? What do you say?
NYSE:SOSLong
by ZoharCho
14
Finally in the zone of interestFrom overbought ATH around 61780 price fell down to oversold and showing us bullish divergence on 4H RSI. When we consider strong support FIBO zone around 52.4K we get great probability for trade with minimal risk. Longs positions are starting stabilize too. (green line above charts). After all of that I will still opening only a small position of my account to leave room for further maneuvering :D Because the price CAN have many obstacles upwards (56500,59300,60000 and ATH.) 15% of account i long at market price. Comment below where you will buy or maybe where you will short: D And if you agree like. I will update this idea in close future so if you want, follow me.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exly11
1
EURUSD ShortLooking at a potential 1:55 short on EURUSD, my bias is relevant to DXY. Expecting retracement on Monday to clear up Thursday/Friday liquidity. My POI is based off of a BTS that needs mitigating, as it has taken out EQH's and left and IMB after it which is all signs of Smart Money. The market has left some EQH's to be taken out on the way to the POI, with IMB's on price above it also. Giving me extra conformation that we will see the market expand upwards. I will be risking 1% on on the entry given, but also 1% on LTF entry.
Short
by ZakRafiq0705
19
The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves. This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc). Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale. This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support. The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures. My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines. After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by sheganinans
15
AUDUSD: possible scenario 12.13.2020On the chart you can see a technical picture of AUDUSD, which in near-term may experience a pullback. For outside the market Aussie bulls the first entry level - in my opinion - can be somewhere around 0.74520, the second around 0.73790, etc. Don't forget, that proper risk management and volume calculations before getting an exposure in a certain asset is crucial. This is my personal view or analysis and should not be considered as a personal investment advice.
by GIgor_021
4
USDCAD: possible scenarioHello Traders! On the chart you can see my analysis of USDCAD pair... …in my opinion 1.29930-1.31460 price zone should be considered as an opportunity to open long position, as this is the zone where buyers might show some demand interest. Fundamentally speaking, yesterdays GDP numbers from China were worse than expected, risk-off on the equity markets and uncertainty regarding global oil demand should put some pressure on CAD against the greenback. The first take-profit target can be around 1.33320 price. // Don't forget to follow your personal risk-management rules before opening position. // Make sure you follow me for more upcoming ideas and feel free to share your opinion via comment. If you agree with my analysis support my work by hitting like.) // More info: link in bio ;) Contact me if you have any questions. // Risk disclaimer: This is not an investment advice and you should carefully consider whether trading is right for you in light of your particular circumstances and financial resources.
Long
by GIgor_021
S&P500: where to buy?Hello Traders! 3300 - 3410 price zone is the first, where bulls might step in and show some buying interest. If this is the case, the first take profit target is around 3500 level. Follow your personal risk-management rules before opening position. ^^ Make sure you follow me for more upcoming ideas and feel free to share your opinion via comment. If you agree with my analysis support my work by hitting like.) ^^ More info: link in bio ;) Contact me if you have any questions. ^^ Risk disclaimer: This is not an investment advice and you should carefully consider whether trading is right for you in light of your particular circumstances and financial resources.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by GIgor_021
5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:1. Anything can happen. Why? Because there are always unknown forces operating in every market at every moment , it takes only one trader somewhere in the world to negate the positive outcome of your edge. That's all: only one. Regardless of how much time, effort, or money you've invested in your analysis, from the market's perspective there are no exceptions to this truth. Any exceptions that may exist in your mind will be a source of conflict and potentially cause you to perceive market information as threatening. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don't know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation. On the other hand, if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right, then after a loss you will anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation, wondering if it's going to work. This, in turn, will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade, so you will not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results . 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn't about hoping, wondering, or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime. Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and what doesn't. Gathering "other" evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that the next flip will come up tails. If the market is offering you a legitimate edge,determine the risk and take the trade . 5. Every moment in the market is unique. Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness. No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves . To do so,every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous moment. Not a very likely possibility. Source: Mark Douglas - Trading in the zone
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by GIgor_021
5
MaMA : Momentum adjusted Moving AverageA brand new Moving Average , calculated using Momentum, Acceleration and Probability (Psychological Effect). Momentum adjusted Moving Average( MaMA ) is an indicator that measures Price Action by taking into consideration not only Price movements but also its Momentum, Acceleration and Probability. MaMA , provides faster responses comparing to the regular Moving Average Here is the math of the MaMA idea Momentum measures change in price over a specified time period momentum = source – source(length) where, source, indicates current bar’s price value source(length), indicates historical price value of length bars earlier Lets play with this formula and rewrite it by moving source(length) to other side of the equation source = source(length) + momentum to avoid confusion let’s call the source that we aim to predict as adjustedSource adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum looks nice the next value of source simply can be calculated by summing of historical value of the source value and value of the momentum. I wish it was so easy, the formula holds true only when the momentum is conserved/constant/steady but momentum move up or down with the price fluctuations (accelerating or decelerating) Let’s add acceleration effects on our formula, where acceleration is change in momentum for a given length. Then the formula will become as (skipped proof part of acceleration effects, you may google for further details) adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum + 1/2 * acceleration here again the formula holds true when the acceleration is constant and once again it is not the case for trading, acceleration also changes with the price fluctuations Then, how we can benefit from all of this, it has value yet requires additional approaches for better outcome Let’s simulate behaviour with some predictive approach such as using probability (also known as psychological effect), where probability is a measure for calculating the chances or the possibilities of the occurrence of a random event. As stated earlier above momentum and acceleration are changing with the price fluctuations, by using the probability approach we can add a predictive skill to determine the likelihood of momentum and acceleration changes (remember it is a predictive approach). With this approach, our equations can be expresses as follows adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum * probability adjustedSource = source(length) + ( momentum + 1/2 * acceleration ) * probability , with acceleration effect Finally, we plot MaMA with the new predicted source adjustedSource, applying acceleration effect is made settable by the used from the dialog box, default value is true. What to look for: • Trend Identification • Support and Resistance • Price Crossovers Recommended settings are applied as default settings, if you wish to change the length of the MaMA then you should also adjust length of Momentum (and/or Probability). For example for faster moving average such as 21 period it would be suggested to set momentum length to 13 Alternative usage, set moving average length to 1 and keep rest lengths with default values, it will produce a predictive price line based on momentum and probability. Experience acceleration factor by enabling and disabling it Conclusion MaMA provide an added level of confidence to a trading strategy and yet it is important to always be aware that it implements a predictive approach in a chaotic market use with caution just like with any indicator Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by dgtrd
14