During the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026.
Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan.
So...
In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities.
Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us?
As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option?
My work...
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22.
At what level will he consider an interest rate cut?
He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut.
Market consensus...
So... the UK data coming out today is pretty important, if bad it increases the chance of a rate cut by the BOE, but if positive it kinda kills it! So there should be pretty big movement on the GBP if the print is better than expected or worse thane expected!
The video pretty much explains our thinking here and our trading tactic, we are long on GBPUSD and we are...
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #Fed's rate cut and identify the main components leading to their decision.
I also talk about their decision toolbox and wonder whether they should start looking at slowing inflation with a different eye? One that doesn't look at trade wars with such certainty.
With Fed, BOC and now also BOJ out, we can't...
I am thinking Euro/Dollar could finish a bigger corrective structure, however during the ECB meeting I am also expecting another move to the downside. After the meeting is done there could be bigger long swing playing out since I am assuming that most of the ECB rate cut on Thursday has been already priced in.
