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Gold smashes record high: Gov shutdown + EOM flows drive rallyGold hit fresh all-time highs above $3,875 as multiple catalysts converged on September 30th. Let's break down the perfect storm driving this bull run and critical technical levels ahead. Key Market Drivers: US Government Shutdown: Congress fails to agree on fiscal budget by tonight's deadline – no jobs data Friday, Fed flies blind into October meeting Fed Rate Cut Odds: 89% probability of October cut, 65% chance of December follow-up as economic data blackout begins China's Golden Week: 8-day market closure starting tomorrow removes world's largest gold consumer from active trading End-of-Month Flows: Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing adding fuel to momentum Technical Analysis: Triangle Breakout : Confirmed breakout from major consolidation pattern Fibonacci Targets : 200% extension at $3,885 (current area), next target $3,920 Elliott Wave Count : Approaching potential 5th wave completion near $4,000 RSI Setup: Flat momentum suggests another leg higher before divergence Trading Levels: Resistance: $3,885 (200% Fib), $3,920 (triangle target), $4,000 (psychological) Support: $3,830, $3,790 (swing low), $3,750 (triangle support) Channel: Ascending channel intact – trend bullish while above support Strategy : Bullish Bias : Continuation above $3,850, target $3,920-$4,000 Risk Scenario: IF (possible) government deal reached, watch for profit-taking to $3,790 Stop Loss: Above $3,910 for any short-term correction trades A historic confluence of political dysfunction, monetary policy uncertainty, and technical breakout adds to bullish bias. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Federal Reserve Time: Rate Cut Decision AheadFederal Reserve Time: Rate Cut Decision Ahead 🕰️📉📈 Chart: Today is not just another day — it’s Federal Reserve Day , and Bitcoin is coiled at a key inflection point. The chart? It’s loud and clear: We’re sitting directly at the 117,384 resistance — the same major S/R level we've tracked since March 2023. 📍 🎯 If the Fed delivers a 0.25% cut (which CME odds say is 94% likely): ✅ 60% chance of breakout 🎯 Target: 138,888 But... 🔥 A surprise 0.50% cut could mean a 90% breakout probability and clean push through 118,400. On the flip side... ⚠️ No rate cut? Expect fireworks — and not the good kind. That sets us up for a potential rejection with 95% chance of downside toward 100,831 . 💡 My plan is simple and level-based: Long above 117,384 Short below 117,384 We’ve seen this movie before. 2019 rate cuts under Trump triggered brief rallies, but the long-term move was muted. History rhymes — but price action leads. Mindset Check 🧘 "Markets thrive on expectation, not news. Most trades are won before the announcement — on the chart, not on the feed." One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclaimer: Everything shared here is opinion-based and for discussion purposes. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Long
by FX_Professor
Gold, Silver soar on rate cut hopes & Trump tariff rullingGold and silver are making headlines as both metals surge amid a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Gold is trading just below its all-time record, having recently touched $3,495 per ounce, while silver has soared to a 14-year high of above $40.50. The main catalyst behind this rally is growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, following dovish signals from Fed officials and signs of a softening US job market. With markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut, the US dollar has weakened, making non-yielding assets, such as gold and silver, more attractive. The recent US court ruling that deemed most of President Trump’s tariffs illegal has added further pressure on the dollar, while thin trading conditions due to a US bank holiday have amplified price moves. Bullish signals for gold and silver are strong. Both metals are also benefiting from tight supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold is consolidating just below record highs, and technical analysis points to a potential breakout from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. If confirmed, this could propel gold toward new highs, with targets in the $3,550–$3,820 range. Silver’s rally is supported by a classic pennant formation, with technical projections suggesting a move toward $42 is possible in the short term. However, there are bearish risks to consider. If upcoming US employment data surprises to the upside or inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed could delay or scale back rate cuts, which would strengthen the dollar and potentially cap further gains in gold and silver. Additionally, both metals are trading near major resistance levels, and a failure to break out convincingly could trigger profit-taking or a technical pullback. For gold, support sits around $3,440, with the 50-day moving average at $3,350 providing a key floor. For silver, a drop below $39.55 could signal a short-term reversal. While the setup favours further upside, especially if the Fed delivers on market expectations, traders should stay alert to key data releases and resistance levels that could shift the narrative in either direction. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAGUSD
by ThinkMarkets
US Dollar: Bearish August. Rate Cuts Likely. Sell USD?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 25 - 29th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar The USD has been weak since the start of August. It took a huge move down Friday with FED Chairman Powell's dovish take on rate cuts. So, this market is is not one to take buys in. However, we are still in correction territory, looking at the Monthly and Weekly candles. Be mindful that the market can find support at current levels, even though it has been bearish for 7+ months. The Swing Low has not been violated as yet. Be cautious. No buys are justified without a Bullish BOS. Sells are the best best, but keep your head on a swivel! React and do not predict. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
29
Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024? Dow Jones Futures & Options E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: YM 1.00 index point = $5.00 Micro E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: MYM 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by konhow
4
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:DJI
by konhow
40
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
14
London Watchlist: Expecting a strong GBPSo... the UK data coming out today is pretty important, if bad it increases the chance of a rate cut by the BOE, but if positive it kinda kills it! So there should be pretty big movement on the GBP if the print is better than expected or worse thane expected! The video pretty much explains our thinking here and our trading tactic, we are long on GBPUSD and we are targetting the 120% mark seen on the chart on the right, a solid 100+ pip move! Right now the GBP is tanking, but thats just due to expectations of the analysts, who are rarely right and they don't even trade for a living, the charts say GBP is long and we will TRADE WHAT WE SEE ! If you like the video give us a follow!
Long
by PrimedGroup
ORBEX: TOO Many "Insurance" CUTS! Where Risk Takes Us?In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #Fed's rate cut and identify the main components leading to their decision. I also talk about their decision toolbox and wonder whether they should start looking at slowing inflation with a different eye? One that doesn't look at trade wars with such certainty. With Fed, BOC and now also BOJ out, we can't miss the opportunities appearing on #cadjpy and #usdcnh, can we? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex