Was curious to see the spread between the US National Debt and Real GDP. As we can see, the National Debt was sustainable prior to 2016 as productivity was greater, but this has since changed. How long can we continue this, especially with a looming recession aka reduced productivity in spite of continued deficit spending?
Just curious to see how the Real GDP chart stands against the National Debt chart. According to this, there is currently almost a 50% spread between productivity and fiscal spending. Is this sustainable?
One of the best ways to think about public debt is to think of oil extraction. How many barrels of oil are required to extract 1 barrel? Right now we are extracting only $0.64 cents of GDP for every new $ of added public debt. This is a horrific ROI. Can you imagine using 1 barrel of oil to extract 64% of a barrel of oil? To make matters worse it keeps falling and...
Why is the S&P500 ready to go short again? This question can't be answer, I'm not a magician and no one will know what the market is going to do, but let's see what's giving me the hint of the short idea. Let's start from the Real GDP . We're going to consider the Real GDP which I'll be calling GDP during the post. After doing some research you can see how the...
Corporate Profits have been outpacing as a % of Real GDP thanks to excessive deficits, ZIRP and QE for at least 2 decades. This massive run has not been without its corrections. Once in 2008 to 2009 and once in 2014 to 2016. One led to a severe recession when CP dropped 63% the other a sideway market in SP500 with market drawdown of nearly 20%. We are about to...
Behind the scenes, the St Louis Fed is showing you a GANN 45-degree downtrend. Looks super bullish eh? Yeah, no it does not. ___________________________________________________________________________ Disaster ahead. PS. Eron lied his ass off in Q1 - that better be obvious by now.