AUD data continues to improve and with retail sales overshooting AUDUSD is approaching the key 0.690x. It is hard to argue for a cut this Feb with domestic data improving, though it will take a break above 0.692x for me to get excited. I am bullish on AUDUSD medium term but expect some of those who initiated longs yesterday and positioned for weaker US payrolls...
AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to...
Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well...
Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: ...
A very good time to update the Gold chart after a huge gap up for the open forr the first swing target. Sadly no surprises via risk ticking higher and providing the catalyst in completing these flows: In my books, markets are happy to continue trading the same USD devaluation flows which will keep Gold supported via reflationary hedges even if (highly...
Finally guess who is back??? You know what that means...Macro coverage in the live channel and charts on Tradingview all day everyday will resume as usual with today's session! Lets jump straight in...LTC is in the habit of pinning bears by choosing the momentum manoeuvre via a breakout . Bulls have done very well in this way so far, the logic which seems to...
BTC volumes are impressive and longs starting to follow through notably more aggressive ahead of CME. Even if the Global reflation theme materialises next year, as many are outguessing, while this artificial USD devaluation would help support growth in the short-term, the erosion of confidence in the establishment and monetary system will have significant...
Large hands coming underneath and pushing price straight back out of the lows as widely expected because of how cheap BTC is. This is a gift in this business, you can see BTC finding strong support at the lows in 7000 handle. Those following will know I have been (and continue) to aggressively buy the 7000/7100 lows, as soon as we crack 7500 expect accelerated...
EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly...
On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and...
A noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the...
As you can see the strong relationship Copper has with Chinese equities, you will notice what has been the case for these final stages of the economic cycle, metals have been moving miles ahead of equities. We got the floor set in Copper as widely expected all year: Any dips now look competitive: Copper has been allowed to outperform Gold: Bulls...
A timely update to the Dollar chart in time for the NY session, with most of G10 FX trading at the bottom of the short term range markets are preparing for the final flush in USD before killing the year off on the FX board. Lets start by reviewing our long-term map: Here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15...
With a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly: Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart: When our opponent...
In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: ...
Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance...
Markets closing down for 2019 right on time for the 3254 target, focus is now shifting towards event risk positioning into 2020 and participants seem happy to play the reflationary trades. This is an interesting swing to track with US election flows providing the ebb and flow. The flows will now reflect in a lagged currency move with the Year-End repo...
With Trump Administration desperately attempting to add momentum to the $ downside via another Fed cut and pressure on ECB, combined with a convergence in US-EU differentials will lead to a long-term rebound in EUR. I am expecting volatility to expand into year-end after completing the 76.4% retracement. For those tracking the USD long-term chart from last...