With the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the...
Here we can see price risks are still skewed to the topside, with CB's buying Gold at a rate unseen since the Nixon era meaning Silver will continue to move as collateral. Prices have trended in the same direction over the past 4 waves, the market appears to be underpricing the odds of future demand risks as well as a meaningful pick-up in risk due to completions...
Uncertainty around reflationary fears will add upside risks to prices in Gold for 1H20. Gold remains bid since the start of November, despite risky assets continuing to gain ground. CB's have been buying 20% of the Gold supplies, the same rate circa Nixon era, all whilst mainstream media paints the geopolitical landscape with a more constructive backdrop, any...
Very little to update on EUR with flows on both sides clashing and causing minor chop inside the 1.11xx handle. Better numbers than expected from Germany this morning providing a gift for those adding on dips. A quick review of the two positions we have traded live so far with the infamous "worm in the apple". A quick review of these charts: As long as...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons; (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last...
A good time to map the strategy and flows for CADNOK as we approach year-end. As you will have noticed I am tracking for a major pullback in the cross over the first half in 2020, this is coming from large macro forces at play. Central bank coordination has opened up the opportunity for NOK to outperform CAD. Firstly the reflation theme via USD devaluation is...
A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA...
A good time to update the AUD chart-pack after the updates from a dovish RBA. Soft on wages and consumption with emphasis on outlook reassessment in Feb. Unless we see the domestic story pickup dramatically in Australia it will continue to keep AUD stuck in low gear. Support is found here at 0.685x and sizes I’m seeing should be enough to carry us towards the...
A very simple trigger for those wanting to cover some shorts from the initial elections entry; the key 1.315x support is holding and pressure has been completely absorbed. We are trading the bottom of the clearly defined range from the elections; 1.315x <=> 1.355x and markets rather than going overboard on risk will want to keep their cards closer to their...
GBPUSD rejected at 1.35xx which acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. Here actively selling into all rallies in GBP crosses, although there is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term. With Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive...
With Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook: We have positioned live in two textbook cases: For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance...
BTC - Choppy trading persists - a touch of excitement as we break back above the prior downward sloping trendline from last week, however the market is mindful that $ shorts are becoming more widely expressed and I am awaiting the spillover into BTC via the next key risk driver. Expecting BTC dips to continue to be met with demand/covering interest and a close...
In a nutshell, I am expecting Copper to keep Chinese Equities afloat and recover Q120 with less uncertainty via fiscal policy and a rebound in exports. For those following the latest Hang Seng / Copper chart: For the macro side, CNY will find a strong bid via trade tensions easing as we move into 2020 US elections. China's outlook for future generations is...
After getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo. Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning...
Here we are tracking the 2020 macro map for USDINR, a high yielding EM currency. The expansion in volatility here will come from CB coordination, and being short USDINR which generally would also support a view for better risk appetite means it acts a great portfolio hedge for those looking for high carry. On the INR side, macro figures are starting to indicate...
A very good time to update the Gold chart after clearing inflation and FOMC yesterday. As widely mentioned in the latest macro update in the institutional room: " Here tracking for a slight uptick in inflation but nothing out of trend before the spotlight is turned onto forward guidance with Fed and 2020 dots. I expect the dots to tick down whilst leaving 2021...
A timely update to the Dollar chart after clearing Fed minutes. Nothing to update after the third cut, Fed front loading the DXY decline over the coming months and quarters. Firstly lets start with our Long-term Dollar chart: Mainstream media selling the orderly brexit resolution and reflationary growth rebound to strategically converge the gap with the US....