The Yen continues to underperform all major pairs, including the Dollar. Yen weakness rather than Dollar strength is currently responsible for the gains that the Dollar has made, retracing some 700 pips off of the March lows. and, more recently, 230 pips off the August low. Technically we're looking at a potential alternative cypher pattern, though I make almost...
When experimenting with various financial instruments, one has to confess how strikingly coincidental it is that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago. At the same time, if one is to project when the macro pennant seen in the weekly may break, it also falls on the same week as the US mid-term election, which few can argue,...
As our proprietary risk-weighted index shows, the recovery above the 100-ema in the hourly chart suggests that in the short-term, risk-seeking conditions are likely to be dominant, even if major events as the ECB, BoE or US CPI will also have a major impact in volatility. The index has been mainly assisted by the sell-off in the USD, allowing a significant...
After cracking the 100-hourly MA, the risk-weighted index is clearly communicating that the dynamics may favor a re-adjustment higher in the value of the US dollar and the Japanese yen, given the depressed level both currencies ended at on Wednesday. The latest impulsive leg in risk FX, led by the renewed optimism over the Brexit negotiations, distorted what...
EurChf had a solid close below the last remaining support and is now in no mans land. Would also be a perfect 1:1 AB=CD move to the next structure level With the solid close below makes me think this thing is gonna continue to follow path of least resistance and head lower Looking to be a great trade with awesome R:R Will keep updated on this and post...
As the trading war between the US and China edges closer, as Canada and the US struggle to hash out a NAFTA deal, as emerging currency markets implode, the markets are taking note of such fractious times by behaving based on risk sentiment. What this means is that in the short-term, if one monitors our risk-weighted index, which takes into account 9 risk-sensitive...
The risk-weighted index, mainly driven by a sharp decline in the EM MSCI index, further anchored by a fall in US 30-yr Treasury yields and strength in the Yen and Swiss Franc, is communicating that the outlook for risk appetite looks quite poor this Friday and heading into next week's trading. The hourly chart has broken below its 100-hourly ema, which has been an...
A break higher in the risk index is set to reignite further weakness in the Japanese Yen crosses. The current formation of a narrowing triangle supports the 'risk on' environment heading into Thursday. It's also interesting to see how the 100-hourly MA has been acting as a reliable indicator guiding the risk rally. Keep an eye as a measurement to assess the...
Divergences taking place between a cheap Yen and the deterioration in risk flows. While it may struggle to muster gains against a bullish USD, expect the Yen to regain ground, especially on the outcome of a breakout of the trendline. Monitor the breakout of the trendline closely. Note, the index encapsulates the most risk-sensitive asset classes, which when...
With regards to the constructive risk profile, pay attention here. It’s important not to be too complacent as the short term recovery in the risk-weighted index occurs within a wider negative context. From a top down analysis, we've drawn a few trendlines to represent the perils that entail for risky assets each time a violation occurs, which since the GFC, tends...
yes, I'm feeling pretty confident about this pair showing a well balanced pair and showing positive news about what the president doing meeting and having international presidents and political leaders from foreign countries indicating positive moves from this pair, taking notion of this pair... On long yes, neat risk enough for a sufficient TP..
Here's my latest midterm target on eurusd.. Watching the Turkey situation.. if it gets worse then contagion fear into the Eurozone will add to risk aversion and weaken euro.
Scenario: up or down? Ethereum didn’t exactly do as we thought it would. We didn't get a clean break of our breakout level, and went down quite violently while bitcoin remained steady. Let’s stick to the charts and see what they tell us to do. DAILY First of all, We see the giant downwards channel we’re working on. We’re hanging on to the median line, and...
Shorting USDCHF from the yellow area as that is a supply area on the short (15min) timeframe, as well as the long (4hr, gray area). These setups usually produce good movements so I am hoping to get a 1:1 RR, as indicated on the chart. Remember to trade with the probabilities. No single trade determines our performance, we will all have a loser once in a while....
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On the EURUSD we are currently bouncing between the two red 4hr supply and demand areas. As we are currently in a downtrend and in neither an oversold or overbought area, we have a short bias. On the 4hr we are moving into a supply area (yellow) which we didn't trade last week due to the entry being triggered pretty late on friday. This luckily gave us a better...
USDCHF is moving up between higher timeframe supply and demand zones, far from overbought levels. It is also in a 4hr uptrend which leaves us with a bullish bias. We are currently moving out of a 4hr demand area which has previously shown big strength, breaking the top on 9/5-2018. Due to the new week, I wanted to wait for a couple of hours for the market to...