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Riskoff

Gold 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring? In 2021 gold has been rotating between $1900 and $1700 per ounce. While a variety of classic patterns have either formed or attempted to form throughout the year there appears to be a broader attempt at a double bottom in 2021. The double bottom, having recently tested and rejected 1700, would need to breakout from ~1915 to be validated. This pattern projects 2150 as the target. Objectively gold was in a very strong uptrend from 2018 through 2020 and after making a new all time high in August 2020 the price has corrected almost 20%. There is clear support at 1700 and resistance at 1900. Continuing range bound price action suggests a mean price of 1800. The price is not going to reach 2150 on its own volition. Some factor's worth considering include risk-on/risk-off sentiment, Federal Reserve monetary policy, US Dollar valuation, political events, government trading, and the global supply from mining. Since the double bottom is not validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of mean reversion about 1800.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by xciiitradingco
Risk management lessonI mentioned it on another day already, but this topic is very important so I decided to share it again to reach as much as possible. Hope it will help some! The last weeks it happend again, I saw some traders with less knowledge (young and old) who crashed their accounts very hard. They lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful! It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why I decided to share one important chapter from my book here to you. May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again. I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned! I can´t say it often enough, keep the important rules in trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures. This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will. Let´s talk about risk management! For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution. You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible. Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entry and exit? This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio. What is the Risk/Reward Ratio? Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade. The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio. A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain. For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino. Which ratio should you desire? Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable. The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis. But what should you do if you have to cut losses? We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before. The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts. How big should I enter a position? To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position. Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford. Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons, the first reason is, you don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway. The second reason is, you can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing. The third reason is, you can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction. In addition, the fourth reason is, your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction. That brings me to another topic. Should you use leverage? Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not. Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund. If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss. So the answer of the question, if you should use leverage: For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage! You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years. But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage. Conclusion: As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is! Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning! Sincerely, TradeandGrow Trade safe!
NYSE:AMCEducation
by TradeandGrow
2
Today I want to share some very important points in trading!The last weeks it happend again, I saw some traders with less knowledge (young and old) who crashed their accounts very hard. They lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful! It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why I decided to share one important chapter from my book here to you. May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again. I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned! I can´t say it often enough, keep the important rules in trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures. This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will. Let´s talk about risk management! For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution. You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible. Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entry and exit? This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio. What is the Risk/Reward Ratio? Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade. The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio. A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain. For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino. Which ratio should you desire? Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable. The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis. But what should you do if you have to cut losses? We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before. The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts. How big should I enter a position? To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position. Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford. Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons, the first reason is, you don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway. The second reason is, you can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing. The third reason is, you can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction. In addition, the fourth reason is, your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction. That brings me to another topic. Should you use leverage? Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not. Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund. If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss. So the answer of the question, if you should use leverage is: For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage! You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years. But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage. Conclusion: As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is! Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning! Sincerely, TradeandGrow Trade safe!
NYSE:NIO
by TradeandGrow
8
AUDUSD bulls have a bumpy road aheadAUDUSD refreshes intraday low under 0.7400 threshold as covid woes escalate in Australia, taking down the overall risk sentiment amid pre-Fed cautious mood. The same reverse the Aussie pair’s breakout of a three-week-old resistance line, portrayed the previous day, by staying below a broad horizontal resistance area since July 09. Hence, the quote is likely to retest the previous resistance line, near 0.7355, before challenging a weekly support line around 0.7340. Should AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.7340, the monthly low near 0.7288 will be on their radars. Meanwhile, the stated resistance area surrounding 0.7400–7410 guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of a descending trend line resistance from June 11, surrounding 0.7440. In a case where AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7440 hurdle, a 200-SMA level close to 0.7510 will be a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Hence, the bearish trajectory has multiple filters to the north and the risk-off mood keeps sellers hopeful.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
RISK MANAGEMENTHad some spare time today so decided to backtest my strategy. As a day trader, I try to minimize risk as much as possible, and if it's one thing I learned this is the way you stay in the game. It can be frustrating leaving money on the table but equally frustrating being stopped out for a loss. I normally take 2 trades a day or add to my position if I can find something. What I like to do is move my stop to breakeven or understructure to protect profit. I'd rather be stopped out for breakeven rather than it hit my stop but this is not always the case if it needs space to breathe before it starts going into profit at which case I might get stopped out for a small loss. As the trade progresses I move my stop under the previous wick or sometimes the body locking in more profit on the way. I DON'T LIKE TO GIVE TOO MUCH BACK ONCE I'M IN PROFIT BUT THAT'S JUST ME. Always remember Discipline, Strategy, and then risk. Good luck with your trading.
Education
by hyperspacefx
EURUSD remains pressured below 50-SMA, monthly low in focusDespite bouncing off intraday low, EURUSD remains below immediate hurdles, namely 50-SMA and weekly rising trend line. Also keeping the pair sellers hopeful are the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions. Hence, the latest corrective pullback could be ignored unless the quote stays below the short-term resistance line around 1.1985. Although a breakout of 50-SMA level of 1.1920 can’t be ruled out. It should, however, be noted that the trend remains bearish unless the quote crosses a downward sloping trend line from May 17, near 1.2075. Meanwhile, the 1.1900 threshold and the yearly low around 1.1845 can lure the intraday bears. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.1845, the 1.1800 round figure may act as a buffer before driving the prices southward to an ascending support line from November, close to 1.1765. To sum up, the quote remains depressed but intermediate bounces may be expected.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls struggle between 50-SMA and previous supportDespite failing to cross the previous support line from May 13, AUDUSD holds onto bounce off 50-SMA amid early Monday. Given the pair’s risk barometer status amid the current cautious markets, AUDUSD is likely to remain heavy. Hence, a clear downside break of 50-SMA level surrounding 0.7570 should back the bears targeting the yearly low of 0.7478. During the fall, the last Monday’s swing high near 0.7545 and the 0.7500 threshold could offer intermediate halts. Should the market sentiment improves, backing the AUDUSD beyond the 0.7610 trend line hurdle, the early month low of 0.7645 and lows marked during late May, as well as mid-June, may test the pair buyers near 0.7675. In a case where the quote stays bullish above 0.7675, the 0.7700 round figure and the monthly peak of 0.7775 will be in focus. Overall, AUDUSD consolidates the monthly losses but the key resistance tests the upside momentum.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
What on Earth does Risk-On / Risk-Off Mean?If you have been hearing people say things like "The market is in risk-on mode today" and you have no idea what the hell they are on about, then read this. TLDR: Risk-On means that in general, the winds are fair for the market. Market participants feel that there is no real bad news around, economies are running along quite nicely, thank you. Risk-Off means there is either some nervousness or even a panic. When looking at the equity market's Risk-On / Risk-Off status, amazingly, people look at the major currencies for the clue. This may not seem intuitive, but here's why: There are 8 major currencies. Some of them are "commodity currencies". These are CAD (Oil), AUD (minerals mining) and NZD (foodstuffs). When the world economy is rockin', these states to sell and their tax receipts go up, and the rest of the world needs to own their currency to buy their goods. So, their currencies appreciate. Also lumped in with them (certainly for me) is GBP, as the United Kingdom sells services to the world like accountancy, and these services are in more demand when the world is in good shape. So, that gives 4 major Risk-On currencies. There are also 4 Risk-Off currencies. USD, JPY, CHF and (more and more) EUR. These 4 are seen as "reserve" currencies, "safe havens" in a storm, especially USD. When the smelly stuff hits the fan, nervous people sell their CADs and AUDs etc and run for safety. All the safe currencies rally and the commodity currencies sag. Take a look at March 2020, Pandemic hits: Equities traders running around with their pants on the heads, and the "reserve" currencies rally. The indicator used in this chart is freely available in my profile. It might be used to indicate the overbought or oversold nature of the two sets of currencies, to help index and equities traders.
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
1
S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction. Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets. The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top, which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher. If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptotraderog
7
AUDUSD - IS IT TIME TO FADE?AUDUSD - We reached that golden area of 0.80! Then, we faded that area...what's next? This morning typing this we down half of 1% - Since my year ahead outlook 0.80 is an area I have been eyeing for a while, since we finally reached that target area there will be an update video for the Q2 on what to expect. This will be shared privately via YouTube - If you're interested: Comment down below or message privately. I've been fading the majors from the start of the week - as yields rise higher, tech space declining, it's an interesting time. Will there be YCC from the Feds? Commodities are at interesting area. AUDUSD - Follow your own trade plan. Support: 0.78050, 0.77700, 0.77455 Resistance: 0.78790, 0.78970, 0.79300 Target area: 0.77700 areas (ALL DEPENDENT ON PRICE & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS) I've taken 70% of profits. If price to rise I will be adding to my position to get in further. Key tip: Mostly everyone can analyse a chart and being on a demo account that's the easy part done, but emotionally not everyone can control there live execution state and that what makes you different from just an analyst to being a real market maker! And you can do it. FRIDAY QUOTE: The jealous are troublesome to others, but a torment to themselves. - William Penn Have a good weekend. Trade Journal (DISCLAIMER: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal