S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction.

Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets.

The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top , which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher.

If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
Comment: Quite a bearish daily candle close heading into the weekend. Depending on exactly how you draw the trendline, price closed either exactly at the trendline or actually below it already. Mondays candle will be very important to see if we get a bounce (eg. Something like a bullish engulfing candle) or continuation breakdown (eg. Another bear candle).