As we see here, $USDRUB came exactly to Support Area. In bounce mode now.
IF we see decent break under that Fib.Support, THEN Target as per Arrow, i.e. $49.5
expect 68 Russian rubles for a US Dollar nearest months once oil falls below the significant level of $45 a barrel.
Or 54 and below if Brent oil reaches 57 and breaks above.
Quite often the first idea in your mind is correct, call it divine providence but it works.
So the more I am analyzing corrective structures the better should be labelling ))).
So this detailed count of what was seen last September - into related ideas below.
The target is conservative at 44 RUB where Y=W.
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
Performance in percent since Trump election (1482 Cross-Rates)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
There's no secret the oil price is a proxy to Russia economic expectations, yet oil correlation to RUBUSD (line chart, inverted to a more common USDRUB cross) is just impressive. Trading dynamics on both instruments is close to identical most time during the year.
My previous idea showed the strength of the RUB.
I watched it closely and the very tight range and a lot of see-saw moves on USDRUB daily chart changed my mind.
I think we are not going to go much lower. I would quit short and book profit.
Updated view shows the corrective structure upside with the large C pending.
Target for C highlighted in a white rectangle...
