As with my previous, short-term RUT trade, I'm looking to keep buying power engaged while I wait for March index ETF trades to decay and/or work themselves out.
Here's the metrics for the setup:
March 4th 970/975/1045/1050 Iron Condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: ~$170/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Risk: ~$329
Notes: Due to the price of the...
Layering on to my existing Mar 24th IUX/RUT Iron Condor with this little number:
March 24th RUT 945/955/1070/1080
Probability of Profit: 63%
Max Profit: $330/contract
Buying Power Effect: $670/contract
Notes: I'd ordinarily go out to April, but I have a preexisting March 24th setup on and have a little bit more unused buying power and less theta on than I'd...
With a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to...
Bulls Must Hold support to have any chance at a further run. We are on the sidelines waiting for price to give us a clue. This week should be volatile week.
With the highest implied volatility out of the four indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000), the Russell 2000, RUT or IUX (symbology will vary by platform, apparently), offers good premium selling as an alternative to playing its ETF counterpart, IWM.
Given the value of the underlying and its accompanying options, having more "meat on the bone" allows you...
Bulls defended our level and are trying to claw their way back. We are still favoring the downside and will seek triggers around the Minor Resistance area. Be patient on Monday. No Trigger, No Trade!
We are watching the Russell in this area. It had a nice fake on the break but we think the Russell has not caught up yet. If she does then 1200 could be on the radar screens. If she breaks below the 1138 area then the indexes are in trouble. Keep on you watch list.
As with the ES...the NQ is in the same boat...although it has not broken down it's support level. If the NQ takes our support look out below. We are looking for bounces to short. NO TRIGGER...NO TRADE!
Just an interesting study using arcs and Fib retracements. Using BRK for an overall proxy for our markets to gain insights as to if we may be nearing a generational top.
This chart suggests to me that we may be closer to some sort of top than we are to the beginning of a new secular bull market as some have suggested.
Before FOMC, I believed IWM was poised to break thru fib ext 1.618 at 118.15. Now in two days, I now have a short term excess supply signal as IWM tested down. Circumstances changed. I have changed with them. I expect the fib 1.5x as a target 112.07. Back and fill.
