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LINK.USD should bounce, but Be Ware Wave B. Correction upon us?Part of my ongoing analysis of each turn (see links below). As you know, Bitcoin took a spill and took everything with it. Link looks ready to bounce, but could be wave B of an ABC. Plotted are three possible scenarios for a serious correction. This may NOT start the higher order correction quite yet. It is POSSIBLE that we bounce from here to a higher high. But it is BEST to correct now, or risk total collapse later. Previous LINK analysis: Retrace Bounce Scalps $3.17 Break Out opp (not triggered) $2.87 Target Call (perfect exits) $2.65 Support Call (several long entries) recent Impulse Redux (caught recent top) $2.7 target plotted (perfect roadmap) Support/Bounce zones (caught recent bottom) Breakout Zones plot (caught the breakout) May 2019 support zones (caught all turns) $1.46 Bottom Call (caught exact bottom) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
by EuroMotif
4
LINK.USD retrace Done or close? ChainLink Support Zones to watchNear Term support zones to observe. We may be done with the retracement. If it breaks lower, check lower support. Plotted are the Fibs of three waves: Light blue is the entire wave, perhaps EW 12345, or just 123. Purple is a sub wave of the Light blue, perhaps EW 3. Red Fib is that of the retracement with 3/4/5.236's of interest. $ 2.9280 may well be end of retracement. $ 2.85xx is quite possible if breaks lower. $ 2.78xx is Bulls Last Stand, uptrend in danger. If we bounce here, there is a chance for a wave 5 yet. If we get a wave 5, we might get a slightly higher high. If 5 waves are done, then we will see an ABC retracement. Previous LINK analysis: $3.17 Break Out opp (not triggered) $2.87 Target Call (perfect exits) $2.65 Support Call (several long entries) recent Impulse Redux (caught recent top) $2.7 target plotted (perfect roadmap) Support/Bounce zones (caught recent bottom) Breakout Zones plot (caught the breakout) May 2019 support zones (caught all turns) $1.46 Bottom Call (caught exact bottom) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line. .
by EuroMotif
ZRX.USD bounced EXACTLY as expected but about done? 0x top watchFollow up to my last Plot looking for a Bounce at 26 cents (click) . ZRX has been very strong since bottoming and then consolidating. Break out from resistance ceiling was perfect with an exact retest. Now approaching possible Wave End Points, that could cause retrace. 0.308-09 is current resistance which should cause a dip. 0.316-17 is most likely target and possible Top for a while. 0.328-31 if reached will almost definitely end this wave. Previous ZRX plots: 26 cent Bounce Call 34 cent Top Call 15 cent Bottom Call May 2019 breakout Apr 2019 Bottom
COINBASE:ZRXUSD
by EuroMotif
USD.CAD wants to test 1.312x but Econ News comingQuick plot to map some interesting zones and levels. There are important econmic reprts coming for both. Lets see if news helps or fights the natural inclination. Wednesday brings Cad CPI's, and Usd Retail Sales. There could be massive whipsaws around the news. Cad is riding good reports now, might continue today. My last Plot called the 1.338 top EXACTLY (click). . See some of my other Forex calls below. I also plot Crypto and some Stocks, check my Profile Page . USD.CAD top call (perfect target, flip short) USD.CAD short call (perfect entry, huge profits) EUR.USD short call (in time, to the Pip) EUR.USD long call (scalp that ran hard) EUR.USD short Call (perfect top, huge profits) EUR.USD trend Short (the very tip-top a year ago) GBP.USD scalp zones (pinpoint Entries/targets) GBP.USD dip Call (just in time, quick 70 pips) DXY toping call (Upthrust warning just in time) USD.JPY short to long (recent perfect entries) AUD.USD trend Short (perfect short a year ago) XAU.USD top call (perfect long to short flip) XAU.USD to $1367? (caught most of the spike) Silver Bounce scalp (Perfect entry, still in play) Copper Bounce call (Prefect entry, almost done) SPX recent top (Fib extensions at work) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some plots also, not going to pretend. But my plans offer PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT take profits. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
by EuroMotif
BTC.USD hit near term targets EXACTLY. now Bitcoin Retrace watchFollow up to my Predicted 5 wave structure in last post (click) . After hitting targets for Wave 5, we are now in an ABC correction. Plotted are two possible pathways for the retrace already under way. Thus far the retrace looks to be of average "energy" of consolidation. Plotted are the 3 "Impulses" which caused the 4 wave rally. Next we had an corrective Impulse in Red pushing downward. In ABC corrections, wave C may or may not have a new Impulse. I think we are in wave C now, but still a bounce for higher B is possible. $ 8100-8124 would be the ideal zone from which to see a strong bounce. $ 8018-8041 is crucial support that is best not even tested, let alone breach. . Part of my ongoing BTC analysis, since the 2018 BOTTOM in last link below (click): 8.5k topping Call (just hit Perfectly) 10.2k Resistance plot (tight zones plotted) 9k bounce call (perfect bounce) 13k warning (early but valid) 12k Impulse 12k target call <=Perfect TP 14k > 10k retrace 14k target call <=Perfect TP 10k target call 7.5k bounce call <=Perfect Entry 10k path laid out 3.1k bottom call (the EXACT bottom) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EuroMotif
2
EURUSD near term Targets of spike retrace: EU to 1.097x ?Quick plot to observe the correction after ECB spike yesterday. Blue Fib sequence of the retrace has been accurate thus far. Next leg down "should" be 2.618 > 4.618 or 2.236 > 4.236. Disclaimer: I am an EU perma-bear, at least for last 1.5 years. . See some of my other Forex calls below. I also plot Crypto and some Stocks, check my Profile Page . EUR.USD trend Short (the very tip-top a year ago) EUR.USD bounce plot (found last bottom) EUR.USD short call (in time, to the Pip) EUR.USD long call (scalp that ran hard) EUR.USD short Call (perfect top, huge profits) AUD.USD trend Short (perfect short a year ago) USD.CAD short call (perfect entry, huge profits) GBP.USD scalp zones (pinpoint Entries/targets) GBP.USD dip Call (just in time, quick 70 pips) DXY toping call (Upthrust warning just in time) USD.JPY short to long (recent perfect entries) XAU.USD top call (biggest 1 day drop) XAU.USD bounce call (perfect entry, huge profits) XAU.USD long to short (recent perfect entries) Silver Bounce scalp (Perfect entry, still in play) Copper Bounce call (Prefect entry, almost done) SPX recent top (Fib extensions at work) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some plots also, not going to pretend. But my plans offer PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT take profits. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
by EuroMotif
Mutiple MA//@version=3 strategy("SMA",overlay=true) // src = input(close, title="Source") //Volume //SMA plot(sma(close,10),color = orange,linewidth=4, title = '10') plot(sma(close,20),color = gray, linewidth=4, title = '20') plot(sma(close,50),color = blue, linewidth=3, title = '50') plot(sma(close,100),color = green, linewidth=4, title = '100') plot(sma(close,200),color = purple, linewidth=3, title = '200') //SMA High Low //plot(sma(high,10),color = gray,linewidth=1, title = '10 High') //plot(sma(low,200),color = red,linewidth=1, title = '200 Low') //Golden Cross MA 50 & 200 ma50= input(50, minval=1, title="Moving Average 50") ma200= input(200, minval=1, title="Moving Average 200") exponential = input(false, title="Exponential MA") select1 = exponential ? ema(src, ma50) : sma(src, ma50) select2 = exponential ? ema(src, ma200) : sma(src, ma200) golden_cross() => select1 > select2 death_cross() => select1 < select2 Golden() => golden_cross() and death_cross() Death() => death_cross() and golden_cross() bgcolor(Golden() ? #FFD700 : Death() ? #D3D3D3 : na,transp=0, title="Golden & Death Cross Background Color") plotshape(Golden(), color=black, style=shape.xcross, text="Golden Cross", location=location.top) plotshape(Death(), color=black, style=shape.xcross, text="Death Cross", location=location.top)
BITMEX:XBTLong
by MLooo1
USDJPY at/near a temporary top? UJ to peak at $107.5 or $108.xx?Quick plot to show the possible tops for UJ wave up. The climb has been well controlled within Fib ratios. We should now be nearing the end points of 2 waves. 107.48 - 107.54 is immediate resistance, might end the move. 107.82 - 107.89 should be strong resistance, causing pullback. 108.00 - 108.01 should be the extreme reach of "blow off" top. See some of my other Forex calls below. I also plot Crypto and some Stocks, check my Profile Page . EUR.USD short call (still in play) EUR.USD bounce plot (found last bottom) EUR.USD short call (in time, to the Pip) EUR.USD long call (scalp that ran hard) EUR.USD short Call (perfect top, huge profits) EUR.USD trend Short (the very tip-top a year ago) USD.CAD short call (perfect entry, huge profits) GBP.USD scalp zones (pinpoint Entries/targets) GBP.USD dip Call (just in time, quick 70 pips) DXY toping call (Upthrust warning just in time) USD.JPY short to long (recent perfect entries) AUD.USD trend Short (perfect short a year ago) XAU.USD top call (perfect long to short flip) XAU.USD to $1367? (caught most of the spike) XAU.USD bounce call (perfect entry, huge profits) XAU.USD long to short (recent perfect entries) Silver Bounce scalp (Perfect entry, still in play) Copper Bounce call (Prefect entry, almost done) SPX recent top (Fib extensions at work) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some plots also, not going to pretend. But my plans offer PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT take profits. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
by EuroMotif
BTCUSD retrace possibility: Bitcoin pullback before 10k ?This is an update to my ongoing analysis of BTC moves. We came very close to hitting my last target of $9019. That push looks like a wave 3, now in w4, w5 to come. So far the Beast has been defying all retrace plots. It may well do same again, if 8612 holds and goes. If 9k is broken, we could see a blow off top to 9.3k Previous Analysis (click): Last Resistance before 9k Golden Fib says $9988 Previous Call for 8k . See some of my other Charts and Trade calls below . I also plot Forex and some Stocks, check my profile page . BTC bottom 3.1k (caught the EXACT bottom) BNB bounce call (perfect entry and targets) ETH breakout (instant Profits, no drawdown) MATIC rocket (massive Profits, breakout entry) ZRX breakout (massive Profits, short wait) XLM breakout (massive Profits, instant Win) ADA breakout (PERFECT targets, massive profits) IOTA Top (Top warning just in time) DASH top (Top warning EXACTLY in time) ONT top (Early warning for Top) Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EuroMotif
3
BCHUSD hit Target, now what? Bitcoin Cash retrace zones to watchBCH has been leading Large Cap coin rally. It hit the $172 target last plotted ( click here ). Now we look to be pulling back from resistance. 165.xx bounce would Ultra-Bullish. 162.xx should be the minimum retrace. 160.xx would be normal yet bullish retrace. 150.xx of course would be Bulls Last Stand. Last BCH analysis calling for 172: Other recent plots: BAT alert of possible top ADA breakout call: XLM breakout call: ONT topping call: RVN bounce call: ZRX retrace call:
COINBASE:BCHUSD
by EuroMotif
1
Intradaystudy(title="Intraday - Exponential Moving Average 3 CrossOver", shorttitle="EMA3CO", overlay=true) length1 = input(5, minval=1) src1 = input(close, title="Source") e1 = ema(src1, length1) plot(e1, color=lime,linewidth=1) length2 = input(15, minval=1) src2 = input(close, title="Source") e2 = ema(src2, length2) plot(e2, color=green,linewidth=2) length3 = input(25, minval=1) src3 = input(close, title="Source") e3 = ema(src3, length3) plot(e3, color=red,linewidth=3) plotshape(crossover(e1,e2), "Up Arrow", shape.triangleup,location.belowbar,blue,0,0) plotshape(crossover(e2,e3), "Up Arrow", shape.triangleup,location.belowbar,green,0,0) plotshape(crossover(e2,e1), "Down Arrow", shape.triangledown,location.abovebar,purple,0,0) plotshape(crossover(e3,e2), "Down Arrow", shape.triangledown,location.abovebar,red,0,0)
BITFINEX:EOSUSD
by titusmarketing
$XRP #Ripple - Very Complicated Bullish Analysis - Target 1.20There are a confluence of indications that we have established a bottom. I very much hesitate to say this as it puts my reputation on the line, but I will outline my reasons in the following analysis. As a preface, I want to make it clear that charting Elliot Wave corrections is very complicated as there are over 20 possible counts and my use of Elliot Wave and/or my count could be off. That said, Elliot Wave charting is largely a subjective art form tempered by some math here and there... IMHO. However, used together with other tools, Elliot wave helps project the end of an impulse waves, and that is largely my goal in using Elliot Waves, so I can better judge when to exit or re-enter a position. There a couple of Elliot Wave fundamental tenants I should outline here: 1. Wave 2 can never go below the beginning of Wave 1 or it invalidates the count. At 0.54 we have very nearly reached that point. 2. Elliot waves very reliably react to Fibonacci points. In a correction wave $XRP has consistently demonstrated that it will react to the 0.362 or 0.50 levels... but in the lesser degree wave formations. The purple wave 1-2-3 is the highest degree (Cycle) Elliot Wave visible in this chart. There isn't really enough data for me to see a pattern in that degree. However, in the lesser degrees, the Primary (numbers inside circles) and the Minor (numbers without circles) waves use of 0.362 and 0.50 fib has been very reliable. 3. Wave 2 and 4 predictions are based on the 0.362 fib of Wave 1 or 3. Wave 1 is not really predictable IMHO, but Wave 3 has often extended to the 1.272 fib. Wave 3 is normally is the larger of the impulse waves, but its not uncommon for Wave 5 to be the largest. In plotting a prediction I have used 1.272 as the extension based on previous patterns. 4. The predictive Minor wave should repeat 3 times within the 3rd Cycle wave (purple), which is plotted at the 1.272 and is very near the 1.20 resistance level Ive had plotted for a few months now. Each Minor formation completes 1 Primary impulse wave. 5. The current Minor wave, of which 1 and 2 is established, would be invalidated should the price fall below Wave 2 again. With the overly complicated Elliot Wave analysis out of the way, the 4H RSI bearish trend-line from 0.96 has been broken. In addition, the last low, 0.54 was 0.01 from the Monthly S1 Pivot Point, as well as just passing the 0.764 fib of the 0.45-0.96 move. The 0.54 level has been a reactive support and resistance level prior to the move from 0.45. Another item that I have been studying is Long Open Interest. Since the 0.54 low, LOI has gained 2.5 million and has made higher lows and higher highs, a bullish sign. For the first time since May 8th, LOI has passed above the 50 EMA and is approaching the 100 EMA. I don't consider LOI a particularly reliable indicator yet, but I have been drawing correlations between LOI and XRP performance which shouldn't be surprising as its just another way at looking at money supply. Watch the descending trend-line marked in red from 0.96. I think that could very well be the first Minor correction wave starting area depending on how long it takes us to get up there. The rate of gain from 0.45-0.96 was 55 degrees. I used this rate of gain again to plot Wave 3 of the Cycle Wave ending at 1.20. As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
wwwstudy(title="Moving Averages", shorttitle="Washm 2x Dbl", overlay=true) exponential = input(true, title="Exponential MA") src = close ma7 = exponential ? ema(src, 13) : sma(src, 13) ma55 = exponential ? ema(src, 55) : sma(src, 55) plot( ma7, color=orange, style=line, title="MMA7", linewidth=1) plot( ma55, color=fuchsia, style=line, title="MMA55", linewidth=1) mysignal = ema(close, 12) - ema(close, 26) barcolor(mysignal > mysignal ? green : red) source = close length = input(20, minval=1), mult = input(2.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50) basis = sma(source, length) dev = mult * stdev(source, length) upper = basis + dev lower = basis - dev plot(basis, color=red) p1 = plot(upper, color=blue) p2 = plot(lower, color=blue) fill(p1, p2) Factor=input(3, minval=1,maxval = 100) Pd=input(7, minval=1,maxval = 100) Up=hl2-(Factor*atr(Pd)) Dn=hl2+(Factor*atr(Pd)) TrendUp=close >TrendUp ? max(Up,TrendUp ) : Up TrendDown=close TrendDown ? 1: close< TrendUp ? -1: nz(Trend ,1) Tsl = Trend==1? TrendUp: TrendDown linecolor = Trend == 1 ? green : red plot(Tsl, color = linecolor , style = line , linewidth = 2,title = "SuperTrend") plotshape(cross(close,Tsl) and close>Tsl , "Up Arrow", shape.triangleup,location.belowbar,green,0,0) plotshape(cross(Tsl,close) and close
P
by raadalrewili
GBP/AUD Chartpack - Technicals & Trade SetupGBP/AUD corrections on verge of bearish DMA crossover, consolidation phase on bullish MACD crossover – Snap rallies to construct tunnel spreads: Chart & candlestick patterns: Bearish engulfing pattern on daily plotting, Bearish DMA crossover on 4H plotting and bullish MACD crossover on monthly plotting. Major support is seen at 1.7668 and major resistance at 1.7733 (i.e. 7SMA). Although GBPAUD rallies have bounced after testing supports at 1.7668 levels, remained well below 7SMAs. For now, any abrupt rallies could see the maximum upside potential upto this stiff resistance levels. On the flip side, any break below above-stated support is likely to drag more slumps upon bearish SMA crossover (please note that 7SMA crosses below 21SMA which is bearish crossover). While both leading & lagging indicators have been converging to the prevailing selling interests on this timeframe. As you could see on the monthly plotting, the recent attempts of upswings have been attempting to break-out and sustain above the major stiff resistance levels of 1.7701 levels, any failure swings below these levels likely to evidence slumps again; otherwise, the extension of rallies upto next strong resistance of 1.7802 is the most likely event. Hence, it is deemed as the major trend has been traveling in the consolidation phase. While both leading (RSI and stochastic) indicators have been converging upwards but slightly indecisive in overbought territory, Thus, no traces of bearish momentum at all. The stochastic oscillator is halting at or near overbought region from last 2-3 months (refer monthly plotting). MACD is also in sync with this bullish indication, this lagging indicator evidences the bullish crossover and entering into the bullish trajectory that indicates consolidation phase in the major trend to prolong further amid minor hiccups. Well, overall the consolidation phase in getting prolonged but with the minor corrections. Since, we kept stiff resistance at 1.7733 (i.e. 7SMA which means at around 50 pips approximately from the spot levels), buying tunnel spreads that are the binary version of the debit put spread is advocated at spot reference 1.7601. This strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields than spot FX and certain yields keeping upper strikes at 1.7733 and lower strikes at 1.7683 levels. Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly GBP spot index is inching towards -25 levels (which is bearish) ahead of UK’s construction PMI print which is likely to be announced shortly. While hourly AUD spot index was at shy above 89 (bullish) while articulating (at 09:27 GMT).
by FxWirePro
Vertcoin's Support & Resistance ahead of its "50 to 25 Halving"We have added more support/resistance lines for Vertcoin. This is based on our analyst Tony's math. This is a follow up to our first post on Vertcoin just over a month ago. We have provided support and resistance lines that have held up pretty well and we are expanding now expanding our projected resistance levels ahead of Vertcoin's halving on the 12th of December. But first lets get all the disclaimers out of the way! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1) We have decided to plot these charts in USD/Vertcoin charts vs. the Bitcoin/Vertcoin pairing. The reasoning behind this decision is that we see more stability in the USD pairing. 2) This isnt financial advice! Don't bet the farm, Don't make any bets in the crypto space unless you speak to qualified advisers and read up as much as possible to make an informed decision. Our opinion on Crypto currencies are that they are a great social experiment. Unfortunately the government hates competition and at some point they will respond to this underground currency economy. Remember that saying 'Nothing is certain but death and taxes'. 3) Yes we are long in #Vertcoin ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The State of Vertcoin & The Blackhole Vertcoin seems to be on a pretty good path higher. The month of November was full of explosive movements and very healthy volume. A contributor to this healthy volume is a lurking buyer we found buying large chunks of shares at very specific levels. We posted this in our chart last month with the orange line at 4.46. This buyer consistently ran Vertcoin to that level and disengaged. While he did not provide a solid floor, he did accumulate shares in a significant way. We have also branded this lurker buyer a blackhole. "Yes ... Shaun Actually came up with that name". The logic behind it is that his trading habits / orders deployed shows that he is not selling. Typically your average trader is trying to manage a position, take some profit, and then redeploy. Not Mr. "Blackhole". A good example of watching him at work is to look from December 8th up until the 16th. He would not move beyond his ceiling price, and we saw #Vertcoin fall after he dropped out. The Push Higher The big push that occurred from the 26th of November to the 1st of December was was completely organic and didnt have the Blackhole's help. To be completely honest, there was very little activity detected for the last half of November. Where things got interesting was when we found one sign at 2pm on the 2nd of December at the price of 7.46. We then confirmed activity at this level (Dec 3 @ 4:30pm). This brought us much delight because plotted resistance lines at the same level. Actually within a few cents. We actually gave Tony shit for that for a few hours. But then we dropped the act and congratulated him on hitting a bullet with a bullet. SUPPORT / RESISTANCE PLOTS We have plotted support / resistance lines and marked where our lurker friend seems to be sitting. While we have plotted resistance at much higher levels, these are guesses based on volume and some input from our lurker. It is speculation to the highest order so again.... dont bet the farm on this! It is one perspective among many more here on Tradingview. SB RESISTANCE = 31.68 SB RESISTANCE 4 = 17.89 SB RESISTANCE 3 = 15.44 SB RESISTANCE 2 = 9.93 SB RESISTANCE 1 = 9.25 LUKER BUYER 7.46 SUPPORT 0 = 7.39 SUPPORT 1 = 5.53 SUPPORT 2 = 5.46 (Likely to be very strong re-enforcing Support 1) SUPPORT 3 = 4.71 SUPPORT 4 = 4.23 Cheers @NYSEDAYTRADERS
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by Nysedaytraders
NZDUSD moving south?Analysis is based on multiple fibonacci plots: monthly, weekly, daily and hourly intervals. Short-term analysis: Please pay attention to the main trend and don't get scared of the short term noise. NZDUSD will move according to arrows visible on the plot it means there will be a chance to enter longs and shorts. Long-term analysis: In my perception NZDUSD is loosing momentum (daily/weekly) and will continue going down. Moreover, pattern of stock market from 1996 to 2001 looks very similar to what we have at the moment 2014 onwards - please have a look at monthly chart of NZDUSD. 1996 top price was 0.715 while bottom was reached at 0.391 in 2000 - ratio of -1.82 2014 top price was 0.882 if ratio is going to repeat itself then price may reach 0.48 I expect similar pattern in the next financial crisis. Nonetheless, NZDUSD is moving down already that could only mean we are already in hidden crash and there is more downwards move to come.
by Simon_says
Anyone remember Close Encounters? "This means something"I just needed to put it out there... not that I haven't already. EDIT (explanation): There are lots of things a Moving Average tells you. On smaller time frames it can provide potential support, resistance and when paired with faster or slower moving averages at higher time frames, it can become a very effective signal. A crossover occurs when a faster Moving Average (i.e. a shorter Moving Average period of time) crosses either above a slower Moving Average (considered a bullish and depicted above in green) or below it, which is considered a bearish crossover (depicted above in red). Taken just on it's own, it can be difficult to time your trade entry with an MA cross as by it's very nature, it employs lagging indicators. The MA cross above uses 9 & 21 to look at the moving average of the last 9 and the last 21 daily candles at 'close'. When paired with a companion indicator (like RMI in this instance) you can more effectively time your entry with confirmation at the plotting of the crossover. The sell signal was at the break below 80 of the RMI; the blue plot of the crossover (circled in red) tells us we should stay short until the next cross is plotted. Higher time frame trades like this can be painful if you're not prepared for large swings and though it has been successful in every instance going back at least 1 year (5 other times) there's always a first time for it to fail. Lastly, it is just as important to properly time your exit, as it is for your entry.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
4
Dobro//@version=5 strategy("Dobro Signal 2.0", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=100) // === تنظیمات اندیکاتورها === rsiLength = input.int(14, title="RSI Length") macdFast = input.int(12, title="MACD Fast") macdSlow = input.int(26, title="MACD Slow") macdSignal = input.int(9, title="MACD Signal") bbLength = input.int(20, title="Bollinger Length") bbMult = input.float(2.0, title="Bollinger Multiplier") emaFast = ta.ema(close, 50) emaSlow = ta.ema(close, 200) // === Bollinger Bands === basis = ta.sma(close, bbLength) dev = bbMult * ta.stdev(close, bbLength) upper = basis + dev lower = basis - dev // === MACD & RSI === = ta.macd(close, macdFast, macdSlow, macdSignal) rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength) // === شرایط ورود لانگ === longCondition = close < lower and macdLine > signalLine and rsi < 45 and emaFast > emaSlow if (longCondition) strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) // نسبت ریسک به ریوارد: 1 به 3 (مثلاً 2٪ SL و 6٪ TP) strategy.exit("Take Profit Long", from_entry="Long", profit=6, loss=2) // === شرایط ورود شورت === shortCondition = close > upper and macdLine < signalLine and rsi > 55 and emaFast < emaSlow if (shortCondition) strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short) strategy.exit("Take Profit Short", from_entry="Short", profit=6, loss=2) // === نمایش روی چارت === plotshape(longCondition, title="Buy Signal", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="BUY") plotshape(shortCondition, title="Sell Signal", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="SELL") // === آلارم هشدار برای ورودها === alertcondition(longCondition, title="Buy Alert", message="Dobro Signal 2.0: Buy signal!") alertcondition(shortCondition, title="Sell Alert", message="Dobro Signal 2.0: Sell signal!") // === میانگین‌ها و باندها برای کمک بصری === plot(emaFast, color=color.orange, title="EMA 50") plot(emaSlow, color=color.blue, title="EMA 200") plot(upper, color=color.purple, title="BB Upper") plot(lower, color=color.purple, title="BB Lower")
by mohamadrezae2000
10-year Treasury Yield Surging ahead last FOMC in 2024After a politically charged November, bond markets have shifted their gaze back to economic fundamentals, setting the stage for a crucial Federal Reserve meeting on December 17. Recent data—including a robust jobs report and rising inflation—have reignited debates over long-term yields and the Fed’s future rate trajectory. With the Fed’s dot plot and 2025 outlook in focus, the bond yield rallies ahead of the meeting reflects heightened anticipation of pivotal policy signals. This piece unpacks the dynamics driving Treasury yields and explores a potential trade setup deploying CME Yield futures to navigate the unfolding market environment. MARKETS ARE FOCUSSING ON ECONOMIC DATA AGAIN In November, U.S. Treasury yields were more influenced by political factors than by economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield remained largely unchanged after the 13/Nov CPI report, which showed headline CPI rising to 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September. While the higher inflation suggested potential risks to bond yields—given that prolonged inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate cuts—Treasury yields were mostly unaffected by the data. Instead, yields declined sharply when markets opened on November 25, following President Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent as his pick for U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a fund manager, is anticipated to prioritize tax cuts and fiscal caution. The announcement drove the 10-year Treasury yield nearly 30 basis points lower over the next week, reaching its lowest level in over a month. In the past two weeks, however, market focus appears to have shifted back to economic data. The non-farm payrolls report for November, released on December 6, exceeded expectations with 227,000 jobs added. Additionally, October’s dismal figure of 12,000 jobs was revised upward to 36,000, providing further support to the positive sentiment. The improved jobs report soothed investor concerns, signalling that the state of the US economy may not be as bad as previously perceived. The jobs report eventually drove a 5-basis point recovery over the following week. The latest CPI report for November also reaffirmed the trend that investors were focussing attention on economic data as 10Y yields surged after the report, rising nearly 19 basis points from the 09/Dec low. 10Y-2Y spreads have also surged by 8 basis points since 09/Dec. Investors can monitor the yield spreads using CME’s Treasury watch tool . Source: CME TreasuryWatch The tool can also be used to monitor the yield curve. Over the past month, the decline in Treasury yields has been concentrated in shorter-term tenors (2Y, 3Y, and 5Y), while the 30Y yield has remained largely unchanged. In contrast, the increase in yields over the past week has been more uniform across all tenors. Source: CME TreasuryWatch The November report showed inflation rising even further to 2.7%, although in-line with expectations, it suggests that inflation may be more persistent than previously perceived. This has led to expectations of a higher inflation premium for long-term treasuries which may have contributed to the rally in 10Y treasury yields. FED DOT PLOT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT NEXT WEEK Markets are almost certain of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on 17/Dec, with FedWatch indicating a 97% probability of this outcome as of 16/Dec. However, the primary focus will likely be on the Fed's guidance for the rate trajectory in the coming year. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed is expected to release its dot plot and summary of economic projections at the December meeting. The December meeting is crucial as participants closely monitor the outlook for 2025. At last year’s December meeting, the Fed projected significant rate cuts in 2024, which triggered a substantial equity rally and a decline in bond yields. Source: CME FedWatch Per CME FedWatch, market participants expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. However, the Fed's September dot plot indicated expectations for 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. If the December dot plot reaffirms the projection of 100 basis points, bond yields could decline sharply. Source: Federal Reserve BOND YIELDS HAVE RALLIED HEADING INTO THE MEETING IN THE PAST The 10-year Treasury yields have rallied ahead of three of the last four FOMC meetings, with the increases notably concentrated in the three days leading up to the meetings. Given the recent trajectory of 10-year yields, a similar pattern may be likely this time. The 10Y-2Y spread has shown a similar trend, increasing ahead of the last three FOMC meetings. However, following the November meeting, the 10Y-2Y spread declined. This suggests it may be prudent to position ahead of the meeting to mitigate potential post-meeting volatility. Hypothetical Trade Setup Market participants are nearly certain of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the summary of economic projections is likely to carry greater significance. Currently, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are more conservative than the Fed's previous dot plot. If the Fed reaffirms expectations for more aggressive rate cuts next year, bond yields could sharply reverse their two-week rally. While the 10-year yield outlook remains uncertain and subject to risk, the 10Y-2Y spread has a more optimistic trajectory. The spread stands to benefit from expectations of further rate cuts and its ongoing normalization trend. Additionally, historical trends suggest that positioning before the FOMC meeting may be advantageous, as the spread corrected after the last meeting. Investors can express a view on the steepening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread using CME yield futures. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point (“bps”) change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively, at the time of writing. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 16/Dec, making this trade even more compelling. The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.94x: Entry: 13.5 basis points Target: 30 basis points Stop Loss: 5 basis points Profit at Target: USD 165 (16.5 basis points x USD 10) Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 basis points x USD 10) Reward to Risk: 1.94x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Farshid.m//@version=2 //Name: Price Action Channel Trading System v0.3 by JustUncleL //Created By: JustUncleL on 3 Aug 2016 //Version: 0.3 // study(title="Price Action Trading System v0.3 by JustUncleL",overlay = true, shorttitle="CCIPAT v0.3 by JustUncleL") // len = input(14, minval=1, title="CCI Length") lenUpper = input(75, minval=1, title="CCI UpLevel") lenLower = input(-75, maxval=-1, title="CCI DownLevel") bars_on = input(true, title="Color CCI Bars") src = input(close,title="CCI Source") lenLo = input(5, minval=2, title="Low Channel Length") lenHi = input(5, minval=2, title="High Channel Length") lenMe = input(4, minval=1, title="Median Channel Length") // fastLength = input(12, minval=1,title="MACD Fast Length") slowLength=input(17,minval=1,title="MACD Slow Length") signalLength=input(8,minval=1,title="MACD Signal Length") // rsiLen = input(7,minval=2,title="RSI length") rsiUpper= input(70,minval=50,maxval=100,title="RSI Upper limit") rsiLower= input(30,maxval=50,minval=0,title="RSI Lower Limit") // filterM = input(true,title="Use MACD confilter filter") filterR = input(true,title="Use RSI confirm filter") filterE = input(true,title="Use Trend direction filter") dCandles= input(4,minval=2,title="Direction test Candles") // rsiVal = rsi(src,rsiLen) // // Calculate MACD and color background fastMC = ema(src, fastLength) slowMC = ema(src, slowLength) macd = fastMC - slowMC signal = sma(macd, signalLength) OutputSignal = signal > macd ? 1 : signal < macd ? -1 : 0 bgcolor(OutputSignal>0?red: OutputSignal<0?green:yellow, transp=90) plot(slowMC,color=blue,transp=0,title="Slow EMA trend line", linewidth=2) // Calculate and draw the Price Action channel emaLo = ema(low,lenLo) emaHi = ema(high,lenHi) emaMe = ema(hl2,lenMe) plot(emaLo,title="Low Price Line",style=line,color=gray,transp=0,linewidth=2) plot(emaHi,title="High Price Line",style=line,color=gray,transp=0,linewidth=2) plot(emaMe,title="Median Price Line",style=line,color=orange,transp=0,linewidth=2) // Calculate CCI cciVal = cci(src, len) // Calculate CCI indicating continuance of trend. isup = cciVal > lenUpper isdown = cciVal < lenLower barcolor(bars_on ? isup ? aqua : isdown ? black : na : na ) // Check have alert and use MACD filter cciup_alert = isup and close>open and (not filterR or rsiVal>rsiUpper) and (not filterM or OutputSignal<0) and (not filterE or (emaMe>slowMC and rising(slowMC,dCandles))) ? na(cciup_alert ) ? 1 : cciup_alert +1 : 0 ccidn_alert = isdown and close0) and (not filterE or (emaMe
by fm66996699
1yr vs 3 month yieldMarket priced in rate cuts for later this year based on the December Dot Plot, but you can see that the market has started to price that back out because of CPI and PPI numbers. PCE release on Feb 29th, and Fed meeting in March with a new Dot Plot. The Fed once again f'ed up by showing rate cuts in their Dot Plot, we'll see if they screw up again. Appears that Powell isn't the only village idiot, he's got company there at the Fed, lol. There gonna figure out that they can't SCHEDULE a rate cut, it should only happen when necessary. This is how rebound inflation happens, the Fed did it with their Dot Plot. Morons. The incompetence is staggering.
TVC:US01Y
by hungry_hippo
Ok//@version=5 indicator("Simple SMA Crossover", overlay=true) // Define the lengths for the short and long simple moving averages shortLength = input(9, title="Short SMA Length") longLength = input(21, title="Long SMA Length") // Calculate the SMAs shortSMA = ta.sma(close, shortLength) longSMA = ta.sma(close, longLength) // Plot the SMAs on the chart plot(shortSMA, title="Short SMA", color=color.red) plot(longSMA, title="Long SMA", color=color.blue) // Generate buy and sell signals buySignal = ta.crossover(shortSMA, longSMA) sellSignal = ta.crossunder(shortSMA, longSMA) // Plot buy and sell signals plotshape(series=buySignal, title="Buy Signal", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="BUY") plotshape(series=sellSignal, title="Sell Signal", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="SELL")
OANDA:XAUUSD
by shelby_petroleum