LI Back at Support as Historical Cycles Come Into PlayLi Auto is one of those names where price action alone doesn’t tell the full story—you need to overlay seasonality to really understand what’s going on.
Looking at the broader structure, LI has been trading in a well-defined range for quite some time. The chart clearly shows repeated reactions between a lower demand zone (around current levels) and an upper supply zone near the 30–40 area. Right now, price is once again sitting near that lower boundary, which already makes it technically interesting.
But the real edge here comes from the seasonality data—and it’s honestly brutal (in a good way).
Historically, Li Auto tends to show:
Strong rebounds after weak starts to the year
Noticeable upside periods following consolidation at lows
Explosive months scattered throughout the calendar (especially after drawdowns)
You can clearly see that certain months consistently outperform, while others tend to be weak. This kind of repeatable behavior is exactly what traders look for—it adds a probabilistic layer on top of the technical setup.
So what’s the idea here?
We’re combining two things:
Strong support zone (price has reacted here multiple times)
Seasonal tendency for upside after periods of weakness
That creates a solid case for a potential bounce.
The drawn scenario on your chart reflects a classic range play:
Accumulation at support
Gradual push higher
Move back toward the mid-range / resistance zone (~30 area)
If momentum builds and the sector (EV / China tech) starts catching bids, this move can accelerate quickly.
Why this setup stands out:
Clean range structure → easy to define risk
Multiple historical bounces from this zone
Seasonality aligns with potential upside
Sentiment has been weak → room for reversal
Of course, like any range trade, this only works as long as support holds. A breakdown below this zone would invalidate the idea and likely open the door for further downside.
But as it stands, this is one of those setups where:
You’re not chasing strength—you’re positioning at a level where reactions have historically happened.
Bottom line:
LI is sitting at a key level, and when you combine that with its strong seasonal tendencies, it becomes a high-interest setup for a potential long—especially if price starts confirming with higher lows and momentum. 
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Here's Why I'm Bullish on TSLA: Smart Money is Buying...Here's Why I'm Bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA Multi-Timeframe Analysis Using Larry Williams' Methods
After a significant downtrend, NASDAQ:TSLA is presenting multiple bullish signals based on Larry Williams' methodology. The weekly and daily timeframes are aligning for a potential reversal opportunity with clearly defined risk parameters.
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
The weekly chart reveals several key bullish indicators:
- The COT Proxy Index shows commercials are buying at significantly higher levels compared to 6 months ago, 1 year ago, and 3 years ago.
- Seasonality patterns have reached a turning point, now indicating the beginning of an uptrend phase
- The WillVal indicator shows NASDAQ:TSLA is currently undervalued at multiple securities (DXY, QCCH, ZBLU all showing "Under")
- ADX reading above 60 (currently at 62.42) signals the existing downtrend is likely exhausting and nearing completion
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily chart, we're seeing initial confirmation signals but still waiting for the optimal entry setup:
- The general market has created a Rally Day, and we're now watching for a Follow Through Day to confirm the new uptrend
- Price structure requires further confirmation through a change of character before entry
- The ProGo indicator has already turned positive, providing an early bullish signal
- Williams %R is showing oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce
- We need the Large Traders index to turn its slope upward for additional confirmation
Entry Strategy
I'm looking for one of these entry triggers:
- Primary : First pullback after change of character , using Williams %R for precise timing
- Alternative : Entry on first pullback after price moves above the WillTrend line
- Aggressive option : Entry if price breaks above the $245 resistance level
Profit Targets & Risk Management
Targets:
- First target: $327 (1.27 Fibonacci level)
- Second target: $390 (Larry Williams Target Shooter -> 2.00 Fibonacci level )
Risk Management:
- Initial stop loss: $228 or 120% of ATR(3) from entry point
- Once in profit, trailing stop based on price closes at WillTrend levels
The confluence of indicators across timeframes suggests a significant reversal potential in NASDAQ:TSLA , but waiting for daily chart confirmation will provide a higher probability setup with clearly defined risk parameters.
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The ideas and strategies presented should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation. This content is not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or to engage in any specific investment strategy. All investment carries risk, including the possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment. Past performance of securities, including the patterns, signals, and indicators discussed, is not indicative of future results. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information presented. Each investor should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Trading Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock involves significant risks that may not be appropriate for all investors. You should only invest funds that you can afford to lose. 
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Dow Jones: A Make-or-Break Buy Setup with Smart Money BackingDow Jones Industrial Average - Buy Setup
Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher.
Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting "smart money" accumulation.
Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years.
Setup:
Entry: 41,800 – 42,000
Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648)
Target: 44,290
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 
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AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas! GBP/USD Trade Recap – A Perfect Long Setup 1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today’s GBP/USD trade was a textbook example of combining Fibonacci retracements, smart money positioning, and seasonality trends to catch a high-probability long setup.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 1.2600 (Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 1.2587 (Below structure)
✅ Take Profit: 1.2635 (Key resistance zone)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Hit TP at 1.2635 for a solid profit! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Perfect Pullback & Reversal
Price retraced to the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (1.2600 - 1.2593) before reversing.
The bullish move was expected after a strong impulse leg, following smart money positioning.
📈 Smart Money & Retail Sentiment – Trading Against the Herd
🔹 62% of retail traders were SHORT on GBP/USD (as per DMX data).
🔹 Since I trade against retail sentiment, this provided a strong bullish confirmation.
🔹 Institutional COT data showed big players increasing long positions, further supporting a bullish bias.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 15-year seasonality data indicated GBP/USD typically rallies in late February and early March.
📅 The next 3-5 day forecast showed a bullish probability, adding further conviction.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Momentum Indicators & Structure
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price was trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term trendline resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money & against retail sentiment = High probability setups
🔹 Seasonality provided extra confidence in taking the long trade
🔹 Using Fibonacci and EMAs for confluence led to a precise entry
🔹 Patience and risk management were key to securing profits
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for GBP/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I will look for further longs on dips, targeting the next key resistance at 1.2680 - 1.2700.
👀 Are you bullish or bearish on GBP/USD? Let’s discuss in the comments! 
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Gold and Silver Are Gearing Up For Higher PricesKicking off my 2025 posts with a positive outlook on Silver and Gold prices! 😊
Over the past three months, I’ve highlighted the "Nice areas" that have held prices well for both gold and silver. Hopefully, you’ve found those levels useful so far.
So, what’s next? 🤷🏻
In this post, I’ll focus more on technical analysis.
If gold closes above $2,740 this week, I’d expect its movement to follow the orange line I’ve drawn on the chart. My target is $2,850 to $2,900, which I hope to see reached within the next three months. However, I’d also like to see a brief revisit to the area below $2,700 before that move.
For silver, I’m looking for a strong close above $32.30. Only if that happens, I’d view any corrections as a great opportunity to add to my position, targeting $36. Ideally, I’d love to see this happen by the first week of March.
Note: Never try to time the market. The timeframes I mention are based on the seasonality patterns of Gold and Silver and don’t hold significant weight in my analysis. Long 
