The history of US. Oil/$ chart vs US02Y-US10Y chart (inverted) : show that the cude price is lagging the move of the US. spread between 2s/10s. "Is oil price is about to collaps ? or this time is diffrent because of OPEC+ cutts ?"
TASS the official New Agency in Russia announced this morning "The Russian army deliberately slowed down its advance in the special military operation in Ukraine in order to reduce civilian casualties, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said".
This news still not be priced by the market, i think any slow down in war is good news for the EUR...
Chart labeling was inspired from Nordea Bank.
1. USD Appreciation : when the US out performe the rest of the world.
2. USD Depreciation : when Synchronised Global Growth.
3. USD Appreciation : when the US is in recession or Synchronised Slowdown.
The Oil price is stretched due to geo-conflict issue and imbalence bteween the supply side and demande side.
The upside is limited , the potential is for a correction to down side back to midd $70/b
Hello Traders ,
Sell setup on the DXY :
Macro Reasons :
Inflation is runing hot 5.4% yoy.
Negative real yield on US Treasuries: (-1.65%) on 5 years T-Note.
Taper base case for Goldman : is 45 % chance the FED will taper on November 2021, by $15bln per meeting speed of tapering , which is split $10bln in USTs and $5bln in MBS.
Fed will keep low rate for...
We are short on bitcoin :
Macro Reasons :
1/ Fed will started to taper : Goldman base case is 50% chance the FED will start to taper by the Nov 2021 with $15bn very month untile the September 2022.
2/ Central Banks around the world, started the QE tapering and RBNZ will the first major central bank to rise the cash rate by 50 bps in October 2021...
Hello Traders ;
The current current envirnement is stressing bitcoin holders , there is China's Cnetral Bank is putting presure on Crypto brokers and the Chinese governement has banned Crypto Mining activities. Also the US Financial Authorities are warning from losses of holding cryptoasset, the rise of inflation in the US Market is putting pressure on the...
Credit Suisse: EUR/USD to drop substantially towards the March 2020 high at 1.1495 :
“A break below 1.1703/1.1695 would mark the completion of a large and important bearish ‘head & shoulders top’ to mark a significant change of trend lower. We would then see support initially at 1.1662 ahead of the September and November 2020 lows at 1.1612/04, which we would...
Breaking News : ELONMUSK just gived up on Bitcoin, Tesla will no longer sell cars in exchange for Bitcoin. >> This will start a turmoil in the Cryptomarket.
Also the inflation numbers that printed today of the US enconomy for the month of April jumped to 13 years high : 4.2% ( Actual ) vs 3.8% ( Expected ) >> this pushed the US10Y above 1.7% (...
While Michael SAYLOR from MicroStrategy $MSTR is loading cash by selling junk-bond debt with 6.25% to 6.5% return annualy to buy #Bitcoin , other Cryptomarket and Bitcoin bears are rumping up their bet against $BTCUSD price, as you can see on this chart the selling positions keeps piling up.
Today the US Federal Reserve has accepted a historical amount of ReverseRepo bid from banks : $485.329bln.
Banks are returning the USD cash back to FED to repossess their US treasuries coupon in order to generate some yields.
The recent comment from the FED board member are framing their comments in a Hawkish tone.
The chart is showing " Falling...