Elliott Wave 4 confirmed at failed break of the 76.4% Fib level. Brexit fears weight down optimism as well as a a key member of the British cabinet provoking a cross party spilt of the ruling Conservatives. CPI data tomorrow is not expected to be highly positive and a poor read should confirm a lower close for Tuesday. There are event risks with the ZEW...
When volatility is low such as it is now in shorter term expiries, you have a couple of different choices when selling premium in broad-based market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA: (a) sit on your hands, waiting for volatility to pop to a level such that less-than 45 DTE setups are more profitable; or (b) look farther out in time for volatility to...
As with the XOP play, selling premium where the volatility is and that's in gold issues (GDX, GG, GDXJ) and oil (OIH, XOP) right now. I filled this earlier today for a $98 credit. The current metrics are: Probability of Profit: 72% Max Profit: $90 per contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Notes: At the suggestion of FractalTrader (that you very much for your...
So as most of you already know it is March The 10Th Which is the date where The ECB come out and speak about Monetary easing, Inflation and Rate cut What am i expecting ? Well as a mainly technical trader it is in my job description as a full time trader to look at Both technical and fundamental in the market. After heavy research into the Fundamental side...
With a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to...
Overall bias is Bearish -Firstly we have bounced of key level of 1.7000 -we have broke trend line based off 4 hour time frame -We had a small retest -I do believe we will break previous lows -Previous four hour candle was a bearish hammer -A lot of wicks to the upside Off the daily -We can see huge wicks to the upside on the Ket level -Yesterdays candle...
GET READY FOR A DROP -clear break of trend line -re test of trend line -Bearish engulfing of trend line to confirm strong area of RES -Also confirms momentum
With the highest implied volatility out of the four indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000), the Russell 2000, RUT or IUX (symbology will vary by platform, apparently), offers good premium selling as an alternative to playing its ETF counterpart, IWM. Given the value of the underlying and its accompanying options, having more "meat on the bone" allows you...
PCLN announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on this play before today's close. As noted in my post early this week regarding this week's earnings play prospects, PCLN's options are somewhat illiquid, so look for a fill of any setup at or above the mid price and resist the urge to chase price for a fill ... . You can naturally play with...
TSLA announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on any volatility contraction play (short strangle/iron condor) before then. You'll naturally want to tweak these strikes if there is any movement during the market day ... . Short Strangle Feb 19th 111/180 short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $404/contract Buying Power Effect:...
DIS announces earnings today after market hours, so look to put on any setup before New York close. Here are the two "classic" setups: Feb 19th 82.5/100 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 74% Max Profit: $127/contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Feb 19 77.5/82.5/100/105 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 72% Max Profit: $86/contract Buying Power...
Reasons for -We have broken our 4 Hour trend line to the downside -Therefore we have broken structure and i 100% believe that after the break we are headed down -We are going to get a impulse wave and this is a strong setup - after all the long term trend is bearish ! Yes weve had two small losses but we are going to make it back on this one ;) Also this is...
Reasons For -We are now down trending on the 4 hour chart -We always want to trade in the direction of the trend -We are making lower lows and lower highs -We are trading below key level at 1.4000 Which we broke with a strong downside move -If we put a Fib in from previous Lower high to the new Lower low price is reacting to the 0.618 Level -Sign of retrace...
Unfortunately, I was fiddling around so much with setups in index ETF's and GLD last week that I didn't get a chance to do a single earnings play ... But it's all good. Naturally, if volatility remains high in SPY, DIA, QQQ, and/or IWM, I'll continue to work those. However, while I'm waiting for some kind of bounce to occur to leg into the short call side of...
Reasons For -Firstly after bouncing of 1.6000(Our key level) we have been very bearish as you can see -Also we have been putting in Lower Lows and Lower Highs -We have also cleared our key level at 1.55000 and have been putting in bearish movement -Now we are trading below 1.5500 the only smart thing to do is to sell as we can clearly see strength to the...
And earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays. GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after...
This is a scalp trade not the best but i chance to catch a quick 50 pips reasons for -Price has come to key area of 130.00 -Price has bounced of with two bearish candles -Price will need to make a move lower before any bullish movement -A small correction is needed A few more reasons to but not worth me going into detail :) Enjoy trade safe