Short-put
ROKU WHAT HAPPENED!Alright so this stock has plummeted down to the 30.00 Region.
It's very hard to tell where prices will go in the future, I believe that if prices break out of the 40.00 Region . We could gradually see prices going to the upside target of 60.00 . Wiping out all prior highs, I also believe that it's not farfetched anticipating a short on this stock down to lows of 20.00 .
I think you should stay out of this stock for now guys! Just my two cents of course!
STAY SAFE GUYS !
INTC - Possible double top formation Option short INTC seems forming a double top formation with strong negative money flow divergence. We think it provides a nice option trading opportunity, and we would consider July $44 Puts Currently $1.30
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- February 28, 2018
Pattern/Why- Possible double top formation
Entry Criteria- $44 July Puts @ $1.30 (Hit March 1, 2018)
Exit Criteria- $35.57
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Indicator Notes- Very strong divergence in the moneyflow
Special Note- Strong Twiggs money flow divergence
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
$VALE over-extended - shortVALE over-extended trading well above the 200 day moving average with significant PUT open interest. Rejected from the 1.618 fib line last week. Expecting a correction back to $11.70 support in the medium term.
GBP/USD TARGET ACHIEVED Previous Target ON GBP/USD was 1.38226
Target was met, this has been a successful trade.
I'm now looking to go to the upside of this position!
ZL Soybean Short PUT on SoyBean due to seasonal aspects and extreme long positioning of commercial traders, highly raised volatility in the last days
ES S&P 500 - Short PUTAfter French elections, the ES has gapped up this day. We have a bullish signal, so I sell Short PUTS to 2190 Strike (Delta 10). Volatility has fallen and is low at the moment, so check for increasing volas in the next days.
Trade: Symbol ES, June Future
Duration: 53 days
Strike: 2190 (Delta 10)
Short PUT on ZW
Volatility has risen in the last days
Commercial Traders are going extremely long since a few weeks
no distribution in the last weeks
TGT - Hi Risk/Reward Option play, $45 July puts @ $0.45TGT is a possible High risk setup with high potential reward. It has broken down a long term upward channel & Channel breakdown target is around $45-46.
And on the daily chart it has a downward trend, which targets around $44. To play this we are considering $45 July-17 Puts, Currently around $0.45
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- March 14, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $54.35; We would consider July $45 Puts
Exit Target Criteria- $44-45
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
HOG - Upward channel breakdown trade from $53.33 to $40 area. HOG was our presidential pick. It declined nicely from our entry of $62.13 and now in profit taking zone.
Now we are looking for a second opportunity here if it break below the upward channel. And we think it can go all the way down to $40 area.
To play this we would consider $55 May-17 puts, currently trading for $2.90/3.10
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- February 2, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $53.33
Exit Target Criteria- $40
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Option: $55 May-17 Puts @ $3.10
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
CCI - Pennant breakout Earnings play $82.50/$85 Feb-17 PutsCCI is a very speculative earnings play. It seems forming a pennant formation. we think with the earnings it will breakdown.
Trade Criteria
Date first found - January 13, 2017
Entry Target Criteria- $82.50 or $85 Feb-17 Put options
Exit Target Criteria- $77
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Trade Status: Pending
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
AMERICAN AIRLINES is groundedHistorically when the Vortex Indicator reaches this level, the stock drops an average of 13% over the next few weeks. There is no clear bottom based on the current trends, but my conservative drop is to at least 42.50. The bottom could very likely be in the low 30s. The key to a drop below 42.50 could be around the earnings release.
CRM- Short as it breaks below $73.03, & $72.5 May puts @ $6.25CRM
Date First Found - November 15, 2016
Pattern/Why- breakdown of trend line and up channel, possible earnings play
Entry Target Criteria- break below $73.03
Exit Target Criteria- $57.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $77.37
Indicator Notes- declining Twiggs Money Flow
Special Note- we would consider May $72.50 Puts currently @ $6.25
Next Earnings Release Date- November 17, 2016
LOW - Potential short trade, looking for Put option playLOW seems forming a head & shoulder formation & shaping up nicely for a short trade.
To trade this we would consider $72.50 / 70 Jun/July Puts.
You can check detailed analysis on LOW in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com (Available to subscribers)
Time Span- 43:40"
Trade Status: Pending
Bold Prediction Unwelcoming to FB fansHistorically when FB reaches this RSI level, the stock drops more than 1% with an average drop of 5.94%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to feel the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018.
The common support level is 0.01% away from the average drop when this RSI has historically been met. This could be a coincidence, but also a helpful indicator of where a selloff could lead.
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
EDU - Upward channel breakdown trade from $41.57 to $37.33EDU broken down from a long term upward channel.Retested it & seems rolling over. We think it will be good short from here.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $41.57
Exit Target Criteria- $37.33
Stop Loss Criteria- $43.13
Option: $40 Apr-17 Puts
You can check detailed analysis on EDU in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 10:10"
Trade Status: Pending
MOMO - Moving average powered Short set up from $16.87 to $13.63
MOMO rolling over very nicely with very good divergence moneyflow. Its very volatile & seems to have the power of moving average behind it. Looking a very good short setup
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $16.87
Exit Target Criteria- $13.63 or lower
Stop Loss Criteria- $18.37
Option: $17.50 Apr puts @ $2.6
You can check detailed analysis on MOMO in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 7:45"
Trade Status: Pending
FLT - Rising wedge & pennant breakdown short - Target $125FLT broke down from a rising wedge, consolidated in pennant formation and now seems breaking down from the pennant. It is showing strong downward momentum as it crossed down all the moving average & down volume increased huge. Overall it looks a decent short with good risk-reward ratio.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $140.71 or rally to 146
Exit Target Criteria- $125.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $150.73
Option: $155 May-17 puts
You can check detailed analysis on FLT in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 5:35"
Trade Status: Pending
BABA will dropHistorically BABA drops on average 7.57% when the VI reaches its current level. I have laid out 3 potential levels it could drop to. The first hurdle (which should easily be met) is 87.88 (pink dotted line). BABA has not been South of this mark since August. My three levels will certainly be in play once the stock drops past this level.
CONSERVATIVE PLAY:
The stock will drop and a nice solid psychological 85.00 is the position I am most comfortable playing.
AVERAGE DROP:
WIth the average drop of 7.57%, a solid 7% drop above the bottom trendlines is a safer play.
BOTTOM OF PSEUDO TRENDCHANNEL:
Although it is not the "official" bottom of the trendchannel, it has been a more common support line in the current trend. This position is just below the 80 mark which is more than a 10% drop from its current position. This is a riskier bet, but not impossible considering international instability and most stocks being significantly overpriced.
Third indicator of imminent LVS dropMany historical indicators are at play and against the short term for LVS. When the TSI reaches this level is stock drops at least another 1% but drops on average 9.14% over the next few weeks. I have outlined 3 potential points LVS could drop to.
CONSERVATIVE POINT:
With the average drop around 9.14%, an even 9% drop would be around the 51.88 mark and it is within the current trendchannel.
ESTIMATED BOTTOM OF TRENDCHANNEL AFTER NEW YEAR:
The estimated bottom of the trendchannel within the next few weeks is around the 50.50 mark which roughly equates to a 11.42% decline.
PRIOR 2015 INTEREST RATE HIKE DROP:
When interest rates were increased in December 2015, LVS dropped around 20.22% from the OPEN the day after the decision to the bottom before it turned around. This bottom is the current bottom line of the trendchannel, however, a similar 20% drop would bust out of the current trend. Although movement of this nature is most likely not going to be as drastic, nothing can be ruled out.
