📚 Creating A Trading Plan and Executing A Trade 📚As with all great trades, we require a trading plan. This is a perfect example of how to analyse, execute and manage your trade. See linked chart for the initial trade idea.
See below for a step by step guide on how we entered this trade and what we looked for.
Goodluck and trade safe!
Signal
📚 The Perfect Impulse - Correction - Impulse 📚NZDUSD has recently given us the perfect impulse, correct, impulse move, which is probably our favourite pattern to trade.
The market moves in waves. There's an impulse wave, followed by a brief period of consolidation/correction where buyers and sellers accumulate their orders. This is often followed by another impulse wave in the same initial direction as the first impulse.
The great thing about these patterns is that we can have a clear stop placement, which is above the correction. If you have a closer look at this chart, you will be able to notice various impulse waves followed by corrections.
Do your best to find them in your trading!
Using Volume Coloured Candles - An EASY WAY for Trading Stocks!An EASY WAY for trend-trading Stocks, Indices, ETF, Commodities --
using VCCB Volume Coloured Candle Bars!
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This indicator colour-codes the candlesticks to help traders easily identify if price action is supported by STRONG BULLISH -or- BEARISH VOLUME.
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DARK GREEN CANDLE when prices MOVE UP & VOLUME is MORE than 150% of its 21 day average --- indicates price action is supported by a VERY STRONG BULLISH VOLUME.
TIP: I will look out for this DARK GREEN CANDLE to identify entries for trading price breakout with high volume)
OLIVE GREEN CANDLE when prices MOVE UP & VOLUME is BETWEEN 100% AND 150% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is STRONG BULLISH.
LIGHT GREEN CANDLE when prices MOVE UP & VOLUME is EQUAL to or MORE than 50% but LESS than 100% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is neither strong or weak.
YELLOW CANDLE when prices MOVE UP but VOLUME is LESS than 50% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is weak and does not support the bullish price action.
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DARK RED CANDLE when prices MOVE DOWN & VOLUME is MORE than 150% of its 21 day average --- indicates price action is supported by a VERY STRONG BEARISH VOLUME.
TIP: I will look out for this DARK RED CANDLE to identify entry setups for trading price breakdown with high volume.
RED CANDLE when prices MOVE DOWN & VOLUME is BETWEEN 100% AND 150% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is STRONG BEARISH.
PINK CANDLE when prices MOVE DOWN & VOLUME is EQUAL to or MORE than 50% but LESS than 100% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is neither strong or weak.
ORANGE CANDLE when prices MOVE DOWN but VOLUME is LESS than 50% of its 21 day average ---- indicates volume is weak and does not support the bearish price action.
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I recommend using this indicator in conjuction with Supertrend Indicator (that provides dynamic levels of support and resistance) to help you identify potential entry/exit points.
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Hope this idea helps new traders! :)
❗ What to look for when I post an idea - Check the Trade Log! ❗A quick video running through how my ideas work and why they're different!
Trading for me is all in the detail and the planning now.
Know your numbers and your data and you can plan properly.
You know if your strategy or system works or not and you can ensure your risk management is in line with probability.
Rule number one is...
You cant run out of money, else you're out of business, right?
You can even run out of money with a profitable strategy, if you risk to much and hit a losing streak - even if the strategy is profitable!
Trading is a long game, not about retiring off that one lucky trade you might hit over the course of a week.
You'll also give the profits back with interest anyway.
Talking from experience!
Have a great weekend, any questions - feel free to reach out vis the DM.
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
Interested in access to my strategy so you can be in these trades the moment they're valid? Drop me a DM .
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
📚 The Beauty of Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis 📚What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analysing economic, social, and political forces that may affect currency prices. The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic outlook is good, its currency should strengthen (Baby Pips - www.babypips.com)
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools (Forex.com www.forex.com)
Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past and will form trade ideas believing that price could possibly act the same way that it did before.
From the chart above, you can see how key fundamental news created incredible volatility in the market but the underlying technical analysis was still intact. From this, we can gather that although fundamental analysis is important, technical analysis is just as important.
See charts below to identify how we could have traded the key fundamental moments over the past few years.
See links below for more trade ideas and in-depth analysis!
📚 What To Look for When Charting Here is a chart of EURCAD. There were various opportunities available both short term and long term. Once you can identify chart patterns, you can easily anticipate where price will go next.
A great chart pattern that I always use is flags - Bull Flags and Bear Flags. In the chart you can see that many times price impulsed and then created a flag and then carried on with the move. Flags can be found both in higher timeframes as well as lower time frames.
Be sure to look out for them!
Always Wait For Confirmations 📚 Those who win at the Forex game are those who are able to build on their case to take a trade, whether it be fibonacci, moving average, patterns etc. The more confluence, the better. This is why it is important to always wait for your confluences to line up before taking a trade.
For this particular trade, those who were waiting for the third touch of the upper resistance of the pattern, would've been stopped out if they had a tight stop loss. It would've been better to wait for more of your confirmations to line up so you can execute the trade knowing that there are more things on your side (other than chance!)
See below for the current GBPNZD set up.
15 Minute Bollinger Band Strategy Here we use a 15 Minute chart with Bollinger bands set to 20 with a standard deviation of 2.
First we look for an established trend direction, once that has been found we apply our bands, set the deviation for 2 and wait for the price to test or slightly break that lower band. (test/break of higher band in the case of a down trend and sell order)
Here we have highlighted these tests/breaks with a green circle. The blue arrow represents a 200 point gain on each trade. Once the trend has begun to level out the opportunity is extinguished and we move on to the next chart.
Tips/Rules
Don't trade against the trend! eg sell at a high break/test of band on an uptrend!
Keep stops loss tight - if the break and trade entry occurs, but the price keeps moving against you time to get out!
Stay cautious in a sideways market (we will post a strategy for that soon too)
If the bands widen drastically that could indicate high volatility and potential trend change.
Be aware of new releases and high importance data when entering set up.
Good luck!
Orion Fx Trading Team
Pro Candlestick Analysis Method! MUST KNOW FOR SUCCESS!!!Pro Backtest Method:
STUDY CANDLESTICK BEHAVIOUR
- You should know what type of
candle your ideal entries are taken
based on momentum/rejection.
- To help with in the moment decision
making before entry and avoiding
impulse entries try this;
1. Open Chart During your preferred
session and timeframe. Look to see if
market conditions are similar to your
strategies ideal conditions e.g. Creating
a LH and rejecting the level.
2. Watch how those Candles unfold and
record their behaviour and how they are
shaped at specific times through out. e.g.
30m candle, record its shape at 10min,
20min, 25min and the final 5mins
3. When Candle closes, record the outcome
and take a note as to whether this candle
is the sort of candle you would enter based
upon. Repeat this everyday or whenever the
conditions are right.
4. You will soon start to see patterns which lead
to specific candlestick close outcomes, then you
can confidently determine this in real time
and avoid entering on an impulse.
Stop trading demo, I tell you why.Those traders who argue that you should practice with virtual money until you see that you win, ignore the most important aspect, and I repeat, most important of trading, which is the mental.
There is no use for you to earn fake money if then you get so nervous when you risk your money that you end up losing it.
There is a click, a change at the subconscious level that makes the person who operates in a demo account and the person who operates in a real account, to be different people.
As you learn, you should familiarize yourself with the sensations surrounding trading. The fear of losing and the greed to win more will make you stop following the rules and end up self-sabotaging. The biggest enemy in the market is yourself.
The path of the winning trader is not based only on having an acceptable strategy. It goes much further and transcends those superficial aspects.
I'm going to give you a very simple example: imagine that you want to master the skill of public speaking because you have a presentation in two months in a pavilion of 50,000 people, and you get a course to learn to express yourself in public.
However, you decide to put this knowledge into practice with puppets or stuffed animals, rather than real people, and you keep practicing until your intonation and gestures seem perfect. You have the feeling that you are going to make an extraordinary presentation.
The months pass and the day arrives. Since you have woken up that morning, you are nervous. In fact, you haven't slept all night, you can't stop thinking about those 100,000 eyes looking at every millimeter of your body. What are they thinking? How will they judge you? However you remember that you have taken a course, and that reassures you.
The day passes and we reach the key moment. You are there, backstage remembering your gestures, and you finally walk through the door and onto the stage. Immediately you see that infinite crowd watching you, and in that moment your body becomes blocked. Your adrenaline levels in your blood are extreme, you start to sweat, your neocortex is deactivated and the limbic system activates its damn fight or flight system. You have entered a state of panic, and as much as you try to apply the theory that you have practiced in front of the stuffed animals, having real people in front of you you are simply blocked, the words do not come out. You finally gave a bad presentation.
What happened here? That you have not taken into account the psychological aspect. There is no use in mastering the theory if then your mind plays a trick on you and does not let you apply that theory.
The correct way would have been to perform progressive conditioning. That is, having practiced first in front of your family, then in front of your group of friends, then having signed up for a small talk at a school, and so on.
The same goes for trading. Even if you have the same strategy, you will get very different results when you are investing 100 euros than when you are investing 1 million, in the same way that it will be much more difficult to speak in front of a pavilion of strangers than in front of your family.
The difference between the top traders and the current trader is not in their strategy. You will realize that the technical aspect can be reduced to something very simple and simple. The difference between a pro trader and an ordinary one is that the pro trader does not shake his finger when entering the market with 10 million euros and hold the position up to where it has been marked, while the ordinary trader will panic when he sees how Hundreds of thousands of euros move in real time, and you probably won't hold even ten seconds before closing your trade.
Trading is a path of personal conquest, which is the most difficult of all.
Merry ChirstmasThe holidays are here and we want to send our biggest thank you to everyone. The daily support, feedback, and outreach is invaluable. Thank you! 🙏
During this time, we're reminded of how important it is to be thankful. 2020 has been a challenging year, but together, we can make 2021 much better. Our goal is to continue building a platform that gives anyone, no matter your location, instant access to the highest performing tools, data, and charts.
As a way to continue spreading the love, write what you're thankful for in the comments below. It could be something new you learned, a great trade you made or even someone you follow for unique ideas and insight. That's right, go ahead and make someone's day by tagging their username in the comments.
Easiest Set up for high probability trades. GBPAUD +50 pipsMorning everyone here is a beautiful example of a 50 pip trade on GBPAUD during the London session.
The pound has been dropping over the course of the week, so when it comes to Wednesday ( mid-week ) we can look for the midweek reversal inline with the market maker cycle.
combined with round and quarter levels you can see the zones in which the market is trading.
In Asia, we see a big shift into the upper zone. Trapping short traders.
London dropped to pick up spending and stops before giving us a classic W formation.
For entry, wait for the neck to be broken and set your stop loss for -20 pips ( Unless its GJ then the stop is 25 pips )
Why GBP pairs? well, they have the largest ADR, meaning its most likely we can catch the 50 pips a day.
Very simple and very effective strategy, trade inline with the whales and market makers, avoid the traps and watch your trading improve exponentially.
Feel free to leave a comment.
Davie.
Risk-To-Reward-Calculation with Key-Components.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello Traders Investors And Community.
Welcome to this educational idea about the risk-reward-calculation in position trading with the 5-Key-Components determined. Today's markets constantly
changing and adapting and in such environments, we need to stick to a systematic trading approach to have the long term goals realized and do not fall
apart of market-making and smart money operators, when considering position-trading there are some important steps in acquiring the long-term-success
we should take apart when calculating the right risk in comparison to our capital and other key-steps to measure what trading is the best for ones
individual trading-system to achieve the aims we desire.
Therefore I contributed the 5-Key-Components inevitable to measure one's risk-to-reward in the market and best applied in a functional trading-system.
1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
5.) Possibilities of Success and Ruin
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1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
1. First Rule: Do not hold the position longer than necessary:
It is important to choose a trading-system which has good entry timing and the right opportunities to exit therefore it is the best to be in the market when
volatility increases and takes profit at the important levels to not hold the position unnecessarily longer.
2. Second Rule: Aim to make as much as possible by risking as little as possible:
When trading we should advance by making the most of what we have at hand, today's markets offer options with leveraged trading which can work also
with smaller percentages of the deposit at hand, in this case, the leverage should be calculated right.
3. Third Rule: Only risk a small amount of capital on any trade executed:
It is commonly under beginner traders to risk a high percentage of the total deposit, this is a fatal mistake as the risk grows exponentially, to achieve security
of the deposit in the long-run, the maximum risk per trade should not be more than 10% from the deposit, best is 0.5-2%.
4. Fourth Rule: Don't come to the situation to meet margin calls:
This means you should avoid being marginally called on any occasions, when this happens there is evidence that the trade was too risky and the stop-loss
better be placed before the margin call, when it happens, it should be a time to review your trading-system.
5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
Before every trade you should measure how your position size with the stop-loss will possibly take a drawdown in the deposit. When the risk is too high
then the smaller position should be preferred, when it is still too risky than a bigger account will be a good option.
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2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
This is a very important step in determining ones individual trading-systems, as traders act differently to circumstances some traders are risk-averse and
others are risk-seeking, this means how the trader is reacting to risk and how much the individual would risk receiving a return.
In the graph, you can see that the lesser your capital is the higher your risk-seeking, you are more ready to risk something averagely when your capital
is lower, this diminishes the higher your capital is, there are different risk preferences reaching from extreme risk averter to extreme risk seeker.
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3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
In the big table in my chart you can see the risk-to-reward calculation and the values in it, the first value is the risk meaning how much you want to risk
in the particular trade coming to the second value, the return is what you get in return on your trade.
For example, you want to buy bitcoin at 15000 and have set the target at 15010, by the technical analysis you have determine a stop-loss at 14500, this will
be a highly risky trade as you are risking to lose 500 points comparison to 10 points.
The best trades are in the green section on the table beginning with trades where you gain 2 and risk 1, these trades should be the aim and preferred,
the breakeven ratio determines how much trades need to go in breakeven to be long-time profitable.
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4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
This rate is showing you how your trading develops by time, when you have a good winrate this means you are closing many of your positions in a profit
on the other side when this winrate is low you closing too many positions in a loss and often be unprofitable in the long-run.
What determines an excellent trader now as it is marked in the chart is when the average risk-reward ratio is high and the winrate also, this means you close
many of your positions in a profit and also with the proper risk-reward-ratio.
On the middle of the chart is the threshold determining low and high, you can also be profitable when your risk-reward is high and your win rate low or in
reverse, what should definitely be avoided is when both the winrate and ratio are lows this means you have to adapt your trading-system for sure.
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5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
This is a simple but very effective and important graphic showing the likelihood traders have for a point of ruin and how much the risk of ruin in
comparison to it is, meaning when your deposit is at a level on which there is no longer possibility to continue.
This graphic shows that when your capital is more your risk of losing it diminishes, on the other side when it is low the possibility for losses is more as
the capital is not big to stand the losses, this is a groundstone knowledge in determining the trading-system together with risk.
The graphic shows that the higher your deposit is the better you can take the risks in comparison and the lower it is the higher is the risk of losing more,
this is why it is important to combine the risk together with a solid portfolio.
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Alright, these where the 5 key-components to determine risk in markets accordingly, traders should always look for the individual situation and where the
journeys should lead, therefore it is important to determine the risks in comparison to rewards which I bundled into the 5 Key-components necessary
determining the risk-management in ones trading-system, these components can be combined applied, or single integrated into ones trading-system.
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In this manner, thank you for watching , support for more tutorials and a good day!
"Good luck is when opportunity meets preparation."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Psychology of OTHER People in the Market Matters More Than YoursMorning Traders - The next in our series of education posts is going to focus solely on Psychology. specifically regarding the psychology of OTHER people in the market. Once you nail this topic its going to give you a huge edge on the market.
Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?!
Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines.
The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions.
One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart.
So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes.
The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders.
So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts.
To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.
Meet Percy - 'YOUR' new Trading E-Mentor - he's cool......Percy is a great guy... he can be a girl too and you can call him or her whatever you wish. I just chose the name Percy, I think its quirky. :-)
BUT ....
Percy can help you like he helps me - Let me introduce you to him.
He tells me when to enter a trade, when to close a trade, what lot size to use - he helps me stay on track when I feel like closing early (Percy hasn't closed so I shouldn't) he helps me ignore them voices of increasing my risk.
Percy works incredibly hard, he has back tested over 4200 trades to help me identify my edge in the market.
Percy is simply a legend, I trust him, I have confidence in him and I follow his lead.
Get a Percy.
Regards
Darren
How To Trade Classical Head And Shoulder Formations.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello Traders Investors And Community.
Welcome to this idea about the classical head and shoulder top formation which can be found on smaller timeframes as also higher timeframes.
Although there are inverted head and shoulder formations and formations which brake to the upside than to the downside there are often failures in these
formations whereas this is the classical formation confirming the reversal with volume and the activated price-target with a high probability.
The formation can be divided into 5 phases with each phase confirming the ongoing formation and besides that minor phases and major phases which
increasing the possibility for the head and shoulder formation to form the final breakout and confirmation.
The formation can be traded in several ways where the most common ways are either with the final confirmation or before the final confirmation, both
with different risk-preferences and fitting to each trader individual approach.
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Confirmational Phases
1.) Buying Climax On High Volume
2.) Consolidation And Declining Volume Upside Attempt
3.) Upward Breakout With Lower Volume To Prior Climax High
4.) Another Consolidation Like (3.) With High Declining Volume
5.) Neckline Forming By Lowest Point With Following Breakout
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First Phase:
Up to this point a strong upward breakout is reaching up to new highs with increased volume, this looks just like a continuation of the priors established
uptrend till bearish pressure sets in and the first signs of weakness showing a possible stopping of the uptrend with firstly declining volume.
Second Phase:
In this phase, the price forms a consolidation zone which can look like a bull-flag or triangle in decreasing volume before it shows an upside breakout on
low volume, this is also forming the overall left shoulder and the established channel can be used for the ongoing measured right shoulder.
Third Phase:
This is an important phase and the key point of the formation where another upside attempt follows with significantly decreased volume forming the
head before showing a markdown with still lower volume marking weakness of the bulls and a continuation of the head and shoulder formation.
Fourth Phase:
This is the last attempt to form new highs in the structure with lower volume compared to the phases before and normally low momentum showing
the increased weakness of the bulls before the initial markdown shows up and set up for the final breakout confirmation in the fifth phase.
Fifth Phase:
The final confirmation the fifth phase showing the break of the prior established neckline and therefore the last confirmation point where a breakout
happens with high bearish volume confirming the following moves to the downside and activating the overall head and shoulder downside target.
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Trading Approaches
A.) Trade The Final Confirmation
B.) Trade The Right Shoulder Forming
Trade The Final Confirmation:
In this approach, a trade on the short-side is placed when the dip down of the right shoulder penetrates the neckline which is confirming the overall
formation, the stop-loss is placed above the right shoulder, a variation of this is to sell short when the right shoulder has finally broken the neckline
to the downside but as this move can be volatile and fast it has to be done before the selling pressure sets in, the minimum target is the price
projection from the high at the head of the formation to the neckline measured from the breakout to the downside.
Trade The Right Shoulder Forming:
This is the more speculative variation but can result in a good risk-reward and profit potential, in this scenario the trade is placed when the head
with low volume has formed, price touched the neckline and the head of the right shoulder is forming on decreased volume, the stop-loss will be
placed above the head of the formation or above the right shoulder. Placing the stop above the head of the formation in this variation will be the
more logical and conservative approach, the targets in this variation are the same like in the first one with price projection of final confirmation.
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When spotted right and traded in the mentioned manner the trade of this formation can lead to a good profit. Also, the volume is playing a major role
in this formation, although it can vary in some cases it will add to a high probable trading setup on the short-side. There are other variations of the
head and shoulder formation but they arent that accurate in the approach like the classical head and shoulder top formation pointed out here.
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In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more tutorials and a good day!
trading effectively is about assessing possibilities not certainties
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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📝 Using Fixed Equity Percentage VS Dollar Amount?! 💣Today we are comparing fixed equity percentage vs. fixed dollar amount to show how fixed % has an edge.
The chart above should mostly be self-explanatory.
The only real note here is that while the difference can be slight in the short term, and while static dollar amount does have an advantage in some instances, over the long term the data suggests the % based method is the way to go.
Hope this helps some! :D
Blue FX Strategy v3 - letting winners run is key!An explanation into V3 and the differences that are designed to help you the trader, in execution, convenience, efficiency, trading psychology and ultimately profitability.
Improvements made;
Lot size calculator
Pips in brackets
Back testing functionality
Customisable settings
Stop loss and Take Profit labels visible on all time frames
and more!
Its all there - explained in the video traders.
Thank you.
Regards
Darren