Fundamentals combined with its track record during recessions; Gold is set to outperform S&P 500 in 2023. S&P 500 faces uncertainty in the new year given higher rates for longer hurting both equities and bonds, nudging investors to alternative stores of value. Against that backdrop, this case study argues for a spread position of long Gold and short S&P 500 with...
As we approach Christmas, for yet another year, we wonder if Santa is real, or rather if the Santa Claus Rally is real. Some hypotheses about the Santa Claus rally include the lowered Institutional liquidity as traders go on holiday (just like us, soon!). That leaves the retail crowd, proven to be bullish on just about anything, pushing markets higher. There...
Hello everyone. It's been a while since I published trade idea last time. Recently, Hong Kong market and mainland got my attention, not because I have exposure to those market, but the turning point is forming or was formed. There is no doubt that HSI is cheap. It didn't benefit too much from the QE policies implemented by central banks around the world. It...
This chart caught our attention recently. The Crude Palm Oil – Soybean Oil Spread (in USD per Metric Ton) is trading close to an all-time high now. This spells trading opportunity for us as Palm Oil and Soybean Oil are generally considered substitute products, which means, at a large enough price difference, buyers may hop over to buy the cheaper one....
Hello everyone. USDJPY has retreated from 152ish due to the intervention of Japanese government. In my view, the intervention may temporarily weighed on the pair, however, it won't prevent it go up further. The possible level it might go is 160. Why long USDJPY might become the best strategy of the year? Let's look at the left chart, containing two lines, with...
The Nasdaq 100 Index has had an incredible run, rewarding long-term investors with massive outperformance over the past 20 years. But as traders we want to position ourselves to benefit from short-term events as well. Look closer at the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, you’ll find a similar setup to today, just 22 years prior, where the Nasdaq was trading...
you can find out more of my analysis at my blog at viper futures.
Energy commodities are a volatile bunch. Amid a complex backdrop of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, a summer filled with heat waves and macroeconomic headlines, energy prices can swing in both directions quickly. From a risk management point of view, one way to maintain exposure in the energy market whilst limiting directional/market risk is to trade a spread...
The CME report from Tuesday the 26th of July to Tuesday the 19th of July came out The reportable figures from the Dealers/Intermediaers (Exchanges/Brokers) and the Asset Managers/Insitutionals show negligible increases in Longs/Shorts BUT The SPREAD increase is nearly a 90% increase for said Exchanges/Brokers as well as a 62% increase in spreads for Asset...
Spread BTP-BUND and the Median Line. The inevitable( and bad) financial consequences of the political crisis in Italy. The Center Line - natural first target of the pattern is above 300 right now.
Gold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also...
This price forecast is purely based on technical analysis of the current setup. I guess people are drinking a lot? We've had an extremely long stretch of green - which is a stale green light - 11 days in a row of green & 6 weeks straight of green - that hasn't happened since 2017 - it looks like the stock is trying to breakout on the weekly chart, but it looks...
Hello Traders, There is an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and spread of US 2 year bond and US 10 years. Correlation looks affirmative from the early 2020 until now. Even on smaller time frames correlation can be observable. Wanted to share that, Stay safe!
Trade entered today based on my thinking that 1. This is our second green bar in a row, and I believe that either we have found a new range in the 190-200 range or we are headed back up. Which leads me to point number two 2. If we are in fact in a range then the 184 short strike is outside of that range and then some, providing a decent margin of error. 184 was...
in the past few years, USDCNH usually found a turning point in the 1st Q, especially around the Chinese New Year. Today there is a big rally in USDCNH. Reuters report, FX conversion before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which starts on Jan. 31, has been traditionally heavier as exporters need to settle their dollar receipts for goods payments and employee...
Entered for a 10% RoM - 0.50 Credit - large MoE on this trade, and compensation was there. When will this turn around, I do not know but the goal here is to be in place for when either a turn around happens or atleast a new range is established.
149/152 call credit spread - Filled for 0.36 - >10% Return on Margin I believe that the 20 years will continue downwards with rate hikes. As such I have setup this call spread to take advantage of the downward move. This position was opened on Jan 11th but I just got around to posting. See blue vert line for entry date Candle. Additional premium was collected...
IWM Market Maker Sweet Spot Calculations NOVEMBER 2, 2021 How do we get to the Sweet Spot Derived from the amount of OPEN INTERESTS multiplied with 100 shares per contract times mid price gives us a good estimate what money is at stake and where the Market Maker will make the most money, or better said will lose the least! This is the spot where the market maker...