I was asked on social media if I use logarithmic charts in my trading. The short answer is "no, not tactically for short term trading" but they do have use in analyzing long term exponentially growing instruments when trying to find patterns. One key use of logarithmic chart analysis is for the Bitcoin Stock to Flow model. This model calculates the price of...
To date, Bitcoin has followed a repeating cyclic pattern that appears to be directly driven by the mining rate Halvenings. It is useful to take a hard look at what previous cycles were like, in order to capitalize on the bull market happening today. An enormous amount of profit stands to be made by the investor who succeeds in selling a significant share of his...
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a statistician. I am not a trading/investing expert. I am a wildlife biologist. This is just a regurgitation of my research, thoughts, and opinions, along with my attempt at having fun with numbers to create an incredibly speculative model for Bitcoin’s future price action. Hang in there folks, this is a long one....
Greetings! Bitcoin looks like it is primed for a final leg of its parabolic move based on a series of indicators which would suggest that alts will be topping in the months afterwards. Log Growth Curves by quantadelic These curves were based on calculations made in October of 2019 and so far have done a really good job of informing users on price action. ...
Analysis based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, an analysis of price action following previous mining reward halving, and the general ascending price channel. Additional context on stock-to-flow (S2F) model can be found via Google (cannot post links in description) Disclaimer: entertainment purposes only.
Price action relative to inflation halving Here is a Copy of the Chart: gview.com/chart/9soG0Sv6/
This Bitcoin Deflation Calendar used the Rainbow Stock to Flow indicator by @GoldenNaim. Hope this proves useful and something you all enjoy coming back to over the next few years.
Updated Bitcoin price prediction using the logarithmic regression curve and Plan B's original Stock to Flow. This should be a base case scenario for 2021.
The red ray is anchored to the same price on both charts and the only think that has changed is the scale. The top has the stock to flow model and shows historic overperformance to the trend line. It is possible that we get even more over-performance this time around as the people entering the market may lack the sophistication as traders that have been around...
Bull Call Spread +1x 28JAN2021 1080CE - ₹ 61 -1x 28JAN2021 1240CE - ₹ 15 Max. Profit - ₹ +91,200 Max. Loss - ₹ -36,800 Max. RR Ratio -1:2.48 Breakevens - 1126.0 Estimated Margin/Premium - ₹ +69,000
$283,000 is based on the Stock-to-Flow model with the idea of a lengthening cycle and diminishing returns. Shout out to Benjamin Cowin on Youtube "Bitcoin: Lengthening Cycles, Stock-to-Flow, and the Four Year Cycle"
This is based off of stock 2 flow and statistical bands. In prior cycles, the cycle high tends to head towards the low range of the top s2f bands. The next s2f band bottom is 200-250k. This would be a blow-off top. The fair value could be more around 80k. I think the blow-off top will be more conservative than prior cycles because of mature money entering. Bigger...
Using a non-linear logarithmic regression, we can project the price of Bitcoin towards the future. Seems consistent with the Stock to Flow price and reveals much more upside as time goes forward.
I added a stock to flow indicator (represented by the upper blue and reddish lines). For me, it indicates two things: 1) BTC is underpriced at the moment; and 2) this bull run is just beginning.
To predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary. The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase. The lower price...
***Look at that beautiful logarithmic scale and regression, that stunning Stock to Flow ratio. The 200 day moving average is so captivating! Math just doesn't get better than this!*** Bitcoin is solidly back within the bands and the mining reward is being reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC today! Such a delightful graph! Can I get an "AMEN"!
It's following the idea posted in the attached chart where I looked into how BTC tends to dump out near its halving date and then recovers a few weeks later. I did a spreadsheet a while back looking at its past post-halving dump and recovery paths and the green vertical box area is where I expect it to make a good dollar cost average buying region. Previously...