Greetings!
Bitcoin looks like it is primed for a final leg of its parabolic move based on a series of indicators which would suggest that alts will be topping in the months afterwards.
Log Growth Curves
by quantadelic
These curves were based on calculations made in October of 2019 and so far have done a really good job of informing users on price action. The script is available but since I am a pine muggle I don't know how to update the data. None-the-less I have identified the fib-channels to either side of the 50% baseline as especially important for suggesting when big moves are going to occur.
The purple box shows when the 61.8 level is exceeded and then tested as support BTC price action is right now in the process of confirming the level as support. It looks clearer on the weekly chart on the 3 day chart below.
A view of the BLX ticker shows a wider view and shows that rejections at the 61.8 level have happened and been the cause of a major contraction.
Pi Cycle
Created by Philip Swift and popularized by www.lookintobitcoin....cycle-top-indicator/
Per Look Into Bitcoin The pi cycle top indicator goes back to April of 2019 and so it is another backwards looking indicator we are trying to use for the next top. A preliminary look at the main chart shows that once the 61.8 level is confirmed as support then shortly thereafter the pi-cylce flashes its top. The convergence of the two EMAs likewise looks very similar and so once again I think we will be flashing a topping signal in the next 4-6 weeks.
On Balance Volume (with EMAs)
By Mattzab
This is one of my favorite indicators and I have pared it down to just the On Balance Volume and the 100 EMA. At our last market top we saw that OBV started to trend sideways and oscillate around the 100 EMA. The most important thing is the top of the box that was resistance to the OBV but price action was trending upward and setting higher highs. This technical double top sets up bearish divergence and is generally not a good thing.
This time around we don't see the OBV oscillating around the 100 EMA and the resistance lasted longer the last go around. We do see two contacts on the top of the current box and I suspect when we get our break out we will again have a blow off top. The higher low on the OBV looks like an ascending triangle, but I am not sure we should be closing our positions just because the OBV reached its target.
NVT
by aamonkey
There are a couple of NVTs out there, but I particularly like this one. It works on both the daily and weekly depending on your choice of timeframe and how much you want to be babying your trade. A look at our last top shows we can go from the middle of the yellow zone to the red zone where the sell signals occur.
The weekly chart shows that we are flirting with eloping from the red zone of the ribbon which is why I will definitely not be holding on much longer should the daily NVT flash red. By the time the the weekly NVT falls into the yellow zone the bear trap is near complete. Which is fine if you used the green zone as a buy signal.
Stock to Flow
By yomofoV
Historically price action has had lots of over-performance on the stock to flow but that over-performance has been reduced time over time. I myself have hoped for massive over-performance but I just don't see it happening this time around.
This final bit is important. Below in blue is the weekly bollinger band top and baseline. The green is the TOP of the monthly BB. The bottoms are not shown because parabolic moves distort the bottom of the chart as the lower edge goes below zero. The baseline of the weekly is roughly the top of the monthly BB. Trying to buy the dip under these conditions is very risky because you could be looking for a bounce of the 20 week SMA and get a fist full of losses. One way you will be able to tell that the next bear season is upon us is the monthly bollinger bands assert themselves. We don't know the day or the hour but mathematically it has to happen as 95% of the price actin on the monthly chart has to occur within the monthly BB.
My personal Battle Plan
I am going to grab as much gains as I can in my preferred alts. I think that Dapp coins will top after BTC and then the currency coins, like Bitcoin Cash, Monero, Dash, etc will top after the Dapps but that is intuition right now. There are are going to be some honeybadgers out there like Link was the last bear market which was basically done bottoming out in months and just ravaged market share but we won't know what the honeybadgers are until they start to ravage, and most people will be in disbelief.
An appeal
If you find this worthwhile show it to some crypto-muggles you may know which may be unprepared for the upcoming move as well as the upcoming bear market. BTC loses 80% of its value all the times and a lot of the tools shown here can stop our friends from losing a lot of money if they are looking for a break of $100k as a buy signal when some of these other indicators are flashing sell signals.
Bitcoin looks like it is primed for a final leg of its parabolic move based on a series of indicators which would suggest that alts will be topping in the months afterwards.
Log Growth Curves
by quantadelic
These curves were based on calculations made in October of 2019 and so far have done a really good job of informing users on price action. The script is available but since I am a pine muggle I don't know how to update the data. None-the-less I have identified the fib-channels to either side of the 50% baseline as especially important for suggesting when big moves are going to occur.
The purple box shows when the 61.8 level is exceeded and then tested as support BTC price action is right now in the process of confirming the level as support. It looks clearer on the weekly chart on the 3 day chart below.
A view of the BLX ticker shows a wider view and shows that rejections at the 61.8 level have happened and been the cause of a major contraction.
Pi Cycle
Created by Philip Swift and popularized by www.lookintobitcoin....cycle-top-indicator/
Per Look Into Bitcoin The pi cycle top indicator goes back to April of 2019 and so it is another backwards looking indicator we are trying to use for the next top. A preliminary look at the main chart shows that once the 61.8 level is confirmed as support then shortly thereafter the pi-cylce flashes its top. The convergence of the two EMAs likewise looks very similar and so once again I think we will be flashing a topping signal in the next 4-6 weeks.
On Balance Volume (with EMAs)
By Mattzab
This is one of my favorite indicators and I have pared it down to just the On Balance Volume and the 100 EMA. At our last market top we saw that OBV started to trend sideways and oscillate around the 100 EMA. The most important thing is the top of the box that was resistance to the OBV but price action was trending upward and setting higher highs. This technical double top sets up bearish divergence and is generally not a good thing.
This time around we don't see the OBV oscillating around the 100 EMA and the resistance lasted longer the last go around. We do see two contacts on the top of the current box and I suspect when we get our break out we will again have a blow off top. The higher low on the OBV looks like an ascending triangle, but I am not sure we should be closing our positions just because the OBV reached its target.
NVT
by aamonkey
There are a couple of NVTs out there, but I particularly like this one. It works on both the daily and weekly depending on your choice of timeframe and how much you want to be babying your trade. A look at our last top shows we can go from the middle of the yellow zone to the red zone where the sell signals occur.
The weekly chart shows that we are flirting with eloping from the red zone of the ribbon which is why I will definitely not be holding on much longer should the daily NVT flash red. By the time the the weekly NVT falls into the yellow zone the bear trap is near complete. Which is fine if you used the green zone as a buy signal.
Stock to Flow
By yomofoV
Historically price action has had lots of over-performance on the stock to flow but that over-performance has been reduced time over time. I myself have hoped for massive over-performance but I just don't see it happening this time around.
This final bit is important. Below in blue is the weekly bollinger band top and baseline. The green is the TOP of the monthly BB. The bottoms are not shown because parabolic moves distort the bottom of the chart as the lower edge goes below zero. The baseline of the weekly is roughly the top of the monthly BB. Trying to buy the dip under these conditions is very risky because you could be looking for a bounce of the 20 week SMA and get a fist full of losses. One way you will be able to tell that the next bear season is upon us is the monthly bollinger bands assert themselves. We don't know the day or the hour but mathematically it has to happen as 95% of the price actin on the monthly chart has to occur within the monthly BB.
My personal Battle Plan
I am going to grab as much gains as I can in my preferred alts. I think that Dapp coins will top after BTC and then the currency coins, like Bitcoin Cash, Monero, Dash, etc will top after the Dapps but that is intuition right now. There are are going to be some honeybadgers out there like Link was the last bear market which was basically done bottoming out in months and just ravaged market share but we won't know what the honeybadgers are until they start to ravage, and most people will be in disbelief.
An appeal
If you find this worthwhile show it to some crypto-muggles you may know which may be unprepared for the upcoming move as well as the upcoming bear market. BTC loses 80% of its value all the times and a lot of the tools shown here can stop our friends from losing a lot of money if they are looking for a break of $100k as a buy signal when some of these other indicators are flashing sell signals.
Comment:
We are above my key log growth curve fib level again, and i don't think we shall dip below until the next bear market.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion