The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave...
If you haven`t sold CSCO here: Or reentered here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CSCO Cisco Systems prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 53usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-8-18, for a premium of approximately $1.77. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings...
With our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave...
Our newest system is online and in the Beta testing phase for forecasting waves. We will use this to project Minor wave 4 endpoints on an hourly chart. Based on historical data, models for waves ending in BC54, are broken into the following quartile retracement levels: 10.12%, 32.79%, and 40.09%. Strongest model agreement for length points to Minor wave 4 lasting...
FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took...
Strong chance Intermediate wave 4 ends tomorrow if Minor waves A and B are already completed. There is an off chance the marked wave A and B in yellow letters are only Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of wave A, however, the historical data was pretty adamant on Intermediate wave 4 only lasting around 2-4 days which makes the current chart setup very likely. Another...
We are possibly in Minuette wave 4 of Minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3. Could see another strong day of movement tomorrow after a possible early morning drop. From here we could go UP toward 4185 by the close tomorrow DOWN toward 4148 by early Monday morning UP toward 4236 by mid-day Wednesday DOWN toward 4185 ( or whatever the top was on May...
Now that last week has settled, it looks like PATH TWO was the chosen path from Like most of my analyses the original analysis is normally the correct one. Most premature analyses tend to rush a process that should otherwise be left alone. What does this mean? Intermediate wave 2 was later than initially projected and did not go as low per In fact, the...
We likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2. Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C...
If Intermediate wave 1 is finally done, it was a few days late, but on target. Next forecast is for Intermediate wave 2 which should see the anticipated market decline over the next 5-12 days. This means the bottom should occur prior to May 2. As of now, Intermediate wave 1 was 23 days long. Waves ending in 2BC2 have been 20-50% the length of their first wave’s...
Last year on July 4th I published a timeline of the overall bear market cycle (Attached below in Related Ideas and titled "Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY"). This will provide an update on a chart that can be reflected on in the future by “playing the bars” for full veracity. The projection was made in early July when the market was trading at 3825 and the low...
Minor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore...
It appears Minor wave 3 (yellow number 3) may have concluded. I called the top around 4112 and it hit 4110.75 near the close on Friday. We shall see how Monday opens but a new low should be in the making over the next two days. Next up is Minor wave 4. The historical data has been very consistent with a 47-49% reversals for wave 4s in wave 1s in wave Cs. I...
With the likely conclusion of Minor waves (yellow numbers) 1 and 2, I am providing a short-term update. I have taken the final values from both of these waves to forecast the end of Minor wave 3. I originally had the entirety of Intermediate wave (pink numbers) 1 ending by April 6 around 4112, but that will now likely occur a little later. The centermost wave...
The bottom was on track timewise from my last analysis, however, the bottom was not as low as projected. Intermediate wave C inside of Primary wave B ended higher than I would have liked but 86% retracement of an A wave in an overall corrective wave is not unusual. Here is the estimated path to the high. Analysis of historical data has Primary wave C lasting 34-67...
This area of mixed support and resistance goes back to November 2022. This is my first area of resistance. Next area tops at 4053. Based on the moves from yesterday and today, the top would most likely occur today. Monday is no longer needed to move higher.
I have been waiting over a month for the reversal to finally complete. We are clearly on the path, but still need a few more things to occur to confirm that we are still in Primary wave B, but that it is near completion. IF we are still in Primary B (blue letters), we are likely in Intermediate wave C (purple letters) and Minor wave 3 (yellow numbers) was possibly...
Attempting to identify the end of Intermediate B has been waves of fun and plenty of misses. While there is no prescribed metrics on what the wave’s overall movement and duration should be, historical metrics have been quite reliable (most of the time). That has not been the case during this chase for Intermediate wave B. I have not given up and caved to the...