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US10Y This break-out can be the next Buy Signal.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a long-term Triangle pattern and more recently since May 22 2025 it has found itself declining inside a Channel Down. This Bearish Leg (Channel Down) almost hit the bottom of the Triangle and has been rebounding in the past 10 days. As long as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) holds (right now almost at the bottom of the Triangle), the probabilities of a rebound and new Bullish Leg remain strong. The confirmation for such Bullish Leg will come after the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If it does, we an expect the price to rise to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (Target 4.475%), which has happened all times (3) inside this Triangle after a Bearish Leg bottomed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
Investing in Bonds in the Global MarketIntroduction In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, bonds remain one of the most stable and reliable investment instruments. While equity markets often capture headlines with their volatility and potential for massive returns, the bond market — valued at over $130 trillion globally — forms the bedrock of the world’s financial system. Bonds provide essential capital for governments and corporations while offering investors predictable income streams and portfolio diversification. Investing in bonds in the global market involves understanding the different types of bonds available, their risk-return characteristics, how interest rate movements influence them, and the factors shaping the global fixed-income environment. This essay explores the nature of global bond investing, its benefits, challenges, strategies, and the evolving dynamics in an interconnected global economy. 1. Understanding Bonds and Their Global Role A bond is a debt security issued by a borrower — typically a government, municipality, or corporation — to raise funds from investors. In exchange, the issuer agrees to pay periodic interest (known as the coupon) and return the principal on maturity. In essence, bond investors are lenders rather than owners, unlike equity investors who hold a stake in a company. The global bond market is divided broadly into: Sovereign Bonds – Issued by national governments (e.g., U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds, Japanese Government Bonds). Corporate Bonds – Issued by private or public corporations to finance operations or expansions. Municipal Bonds – Issued by states, cities, or other local governments (mostly in the U.S.). Supranational Bonds – Issued by international institutions like the World Bank or the European Investment Bank. Global investors allocate funds to these instruments across various geographies to diversify risk and capture stable returns. 2. The Structure and Dynamics of the Global Bond Market The global bond market is larger than the global stock market and plays a critical role in facilitating liquidity and funding across economies. It operates through both primary markets (where new bonds are issued) and secondary markets (where investors trade existing bonds). The U.S. dominates the bond market, followed by the Eurozone, Japan, and China. Emerging markets have also become increasingly active players, issuing bonds denominated in both local and foreign currencies to attract international investors. Key indicators in the bond market include: Yield to Maturity (YTM): The total return expected if the bond is held to maturity. Credit Rating: An assessment of the issuer’s creditworthiness, provided by agencies like Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. Duration and Convexity: Measures that indicate the bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes. These metrics help investors assess potential risks and rewards in a global portfolio. 3. Benefits of Investing in Global Bonds a. Diversification Investing in global bonds provides geographic diversification. Since interest rates, inflation, and economic cycles vary across countries, exposure to multiple bond markets reduces the portfolio’s overall volatility. b. Stability and Predictable Income Unlike equities, bonds provide fixed coupon payments, offering a predictable income stream. This stability attracts conservative investors, such as pension funds and retirees. c. Risk Management Bonds, especially government and high-grade corporate bonds, often act as a hedge during equity market downturns. When stock markets fall, investors typically move toward safer assets, driving bond prices higher. d. Access to Foreign Currencies Investing in foreign bonds can provide exposure to different currencies, offering potential gains from favorable exchange rate movements. e. Inflation Protection Certain bonds, such as inflation-indexed securities (like U.S. TIPS or U.K. Index-linked Gilts), adjust their principal and interest payments based on inflation, preserving real returns. 4. Risks in Global Bond Investing While bonds are often viewed as safer than equities, they are not risk-free. Investing globally introduces additional layers of complexity. a. Interest Rate Risk Bond prices and interest rates move inversely. When global central banks raise rates, existing bonds with lower yields lose value. Hence, global investors must monitor monetary policies across major economies. b. Credit Risk There is a risk that the bond issuer may default on payments. Emerging-market bonds and corporate bonds typically carry higher credit risk compared to sovereign bonds of developed nations. c. Currency Risk Investing in bonds denominated in foreign currencies exposes investors to exchange rate fluctuations. For instance, if the U.S. dollar strengthens, returns from euro-denominated bonds may diminish for dollar-based investors. d. Liquidity Risk Certain bonds, especially those from smaller issuers or emerging markets, may have limited trading activity, making it difficult to sell them quickly without a price concession. e. Geopolitical and Economic Risk Global events such as wars, trade tensions, sanctions, and political instability can disrupt bond markets, particularly in developing regions. 5. Types of Global Bonds a. Government Bonds Issued by sovereign states, these bonds are considered the safest investments. Examples include: U.S. Treasury Bonds – Global benchmark for risk-free rates. German Bunds – The eurozone’s standard for stability. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) – Used by investors seeking ultra-low yields but high safety. b. Corporate Bonds Issued by companies to raise capital. They offer higher yields than government bonds but with added credit risk. Global giants like Apple, Toyota, or Shell issue bonds accessible to global investors. c. Emerging Market Bonds Issued by developing economies (e.g., Brazil, India, South Africa). These bonds offer higher yields due to elevated risk but can be rewarding in periods of global growth. d. Eurobonds Issued in a currency different from the issuer’s home currency. For example, a Japanese company might issue dollar-denominated bonds in Europe. These instruments enhance global liquidity. e. Green and Sustainable Bonds An emerging category where proceeds are used for environmental or social projects. These have gained significant traction as investors prioritize ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria. 6. Factors Influencing Global Bond Markets a. Central Bank Policies Interest rate decisions by central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan significantly impact bond yields globally. Quantitative easing and tightening cycles influence global liquidity and investor sentiment. b. Inflation Trends Rising inflation erodes real returns on fixed-income investments, leading investors to demand higher yields. Conversely, low inflation boosts bond prices. c. Fiscal Deficits and Public Debt Countries with large fiscal deficits may need to issue more bonds, influencing supply and yield levels. Investors also consider debt sustainability when investing globally. d. Global Capital Flows Institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds allocate massive capital across borders, affecting demand and yield spreads among regions. e. Geopolitical and Economic Stability Stable economies attract more bond investors. Events like Brexit, wars, or trade conflicts can trigger capital flight or yield volatility. 7. Strategies for Global Bond Investing a. Active vs. Passive Investing Active managers analyze global economic trends, interest rate expectations, and credit cycles to select bonds that may outperform. Passive investors, on the other hand, prefer bond index funds or ETFs that track global benchmarks such as the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index. b. Currency Hedging To mitigate currency risk, investors often use hedging tools like forward contracts or currency-hedged ETFs. This helps stabilize returns in home-currency terms. c. Duration Management Investors adjust portfolio duration based on interest rate outlooks. When rates are expected to rise, shorter-duration bonds are preferred to minimize price losses. d. Credit Spread Analysis Monitoring credit spreads — the yield difference between corporate and government bonds — helps investors gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. e. Diversification Across Regions Allocating investments across developed and emerging markets balances risk and return potential. For instance, combining U.S. Treasuries with Indian or Brazilian bonds can enhance yield without extreme exposure. 8. Role of Technology and Innovation Technological innovation has transformed global bond investing. Electronic trading platforms have improved liquidity and transparency, while data analytics and artificial intelligence help investors identify opportunities faster. Moreover, tokenized bonds — digital versions of traditional bonds traded on blockchain platforms — are emerging, promising greater accessibility and efficiency in global debt markets. 9. The Future of Global Bond Investing The future of global bond markets will be shaped by several key trends: Sustainability Focus: Growing demand for green and ESG-compliant bonds. Digitalization: Blockchain-based issuance and trading to reduce costs. Emerging Market Growth: As developing nations expand, their bond markets will attract more global investors. Interest Rate Normalization: Following years of low or negative rates, the post-2020 era may witness gradual normalization, impacting bond valuations. Geopolitical Realignment: Shifts in global power structures and currency preferences (e.g., de-dollarization trends) will influence international bond flows. 10. Conclusion Investing in bonds in the global market offers investors a unique blend of safety, income stability, and diversification. While equities may deliver higher returns, bonds provide the essential balance in a diversified portfolio, helping manage risk and protect capital during volatile times. However, success in global bond investing requires understanding complex factors — interest rate movements, currency dynamics, credit risks, and geopolitical developments. With proper strategy, diversification, and risk management, investors can harness the immense opportunities in the global bond market while safeguarding their wealth. In an interconnected world, bonds remain not just a tool for income generation but a cornerstone of global financial stability. As economies evolve, technologies advance, and sustainability takes center stage, global bond investing will continue to adapt — offering investors both security and growth in an uncertain yet opportunity-rich financial landscape.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
DXY: Key Reversal or Dead Cat Bounce?The U.S. Dollar Index has found footing around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 97.8, breaking a long downtrend. Its push toward the 99.35–100 range suggests a possible retest of a broken structure and alignment with the 50-day EMA. I noticed this move also aligns with short-term recovery signals. Technical View (1D) RSI climbing above 50 hints at renewed momentum. MACD turning green shows early signs of follow-through. Price is testing 100–101, a former support turned resistance. If momentum holds, 102, 104, and 106 are the next resistance zones. Support remains steady at 98, 97, and 95.8, which are shown as strong confluence points with Fibonacci structure. Scenarios: If DXY closes above 100.3, I’d expect continuation toward 102.4 or 104.2. Failure to clear 100 followed by a drop under 98.5 could send it back toward 97.2 or even 95.8. For now, my bias stays neutral to slightly bullish in the short term. A clean breakout above 100 would confirm a structural shift upward. None the less, I’m watching U.S. yields and upcoming CPI data closely and considering the factor that stronger inflation or a hawkish Fed tone could fuel the next DXY leg higher. Thank you for your time and support, and as always please remember that this is always NFA and DYOFR, respectfully.
TVC:DXY
by imaclone_eth
Why Did The Market Bounce Today? Today the market bounced for 2 reasons.... 1. Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO received news of another OPENAI partnership. This multi year billion dollar deal caused the stock to bounce double digits. When this name rallies it causes liquidity to flow into the $SOXX. Semiconductors are still the heartbeat of this market and have propped everything up today. The OPENAI headline seems to be running out of steam as the last 3 partnership announcements caused 3 stock to make new highs but AVGO did not take out its highs. This will be on watch. 2. The bond market was closed today allowing investors to not have to worry about catalysts or yields. There's an old saying on "when the cats away, the mice will play" . The bond market is the much larger investment market aka the "cat" and this liquidity has clearly spilled over into smaller cap higher beta stocks. Tomorrow we will see if the markets can take out the 20 day Moving average or if this pop gets sold into.
NASDAQ:SERV
by Trading-Capital
The DOW, Gold, and Morgan StanleyAs it turns out, the stock market that appears to be the gift that keeps giving, is actually giving nothing. In reality, when we measure the value of the DOW with real money (Gold) rather than fiat inflationary currency, the markets are crashing down so fast it'll make your head spin. The $NYSE:DOW/TVC:GOLD shows us that what appears to be one of the greatest bull markets in the history of the entire exchange, is actually just one giant melt up fueled by monetary expansion and inflationary action. Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS recent came out and shared their new edit to their famous 60/40 portfolio arrangement. In this edit, they entertained the idea that inflation was simply not friendly to the client's holdings and that they should actually diversify their positions. Originally, the 60/40 portfolio consisted of 60% equities, and 40% bonds. However, they presume that the future will not bring a passive environment to the boring 40% bonds because, like anyone with two eyes and a brain, they believe that higher inflation lies ahead. Their solution? Get this, to buy Gold . Who would of thought of something so genius? The profound idea that a placeholder of value would hold value and protect you from inflation could only possibly be developed in such a megabank super titan with trillions in AUM. All sarcasm aside though, it might not be exactly obvious to most what this means for gold and bonds. Firstly for bonds, most of which are held in treasuries, we can expect some sort of retail selloff only to be bought back up again by the Fed. So nothing news worthy there. However for our precious gleaming metal, we can expect a continuing bull run as money leaves the debt market and enters into precious metals (again namely gold). We should also be inclined to believe that this should help gold mining companies and give them a nice increase in their stock values over time. Next, we shouldn't expect to much of a move from this in the stock market except the usual volatility and seasonal shifts. Lastly, from this admission from the boys at Morgan Stanley, we can also expect continuing inflation despite what the numbers released by the Fed say. No, the cost of living will not lower. No, the Fed will not raise rates to curb inflation. No, the numbers are never real and never will be. But this does mean that we know what's coming and how to protect ourselves. Here are the possible plays to consider Gold: GOLD (USD/OZ) Stocks: NYSE:NEM , $B, NYSE:EGO , AMEX:EQX , NYSE:AEM ETF: GDX, GDXJ
NYSE:DOW
by addatheriver0808
SOFR Futures: Understand Market Pricing for future Fed PolicyWith the Federal Reserve having just cut interest rates and guiding towards further cuts this year and through 2026, I have received several requests to explain how traders can understand for themselves what the market is pricing and expecting for Fed policy by a specific point in time. Perhaps the more simplistic way to view what is priced or implied for the next FOMC meeting is to use the ‘FedWatch’ tool on the CME's website - www.cmegroup.com . This looks at the distribution of expectations for the next FOMC meeting, as implied in the fed funds futures pricing. Interest rate futures can guide our understanding of what’s priced One way traders can gauge the market’s expectations for future Fed policy—commonly referred to as “what is priced in”—is through interest rate futures pricing or in interest rate derivatives (interest rate swaps, for example). These are tradable instruments that allow investors and corporates to hedge their interest rate risk, while also giving speculators a vehicle to express views on where they see Fed interest rate policy at a specific point in time. TradingView doesn’t offer pricing on IR swaps, but it does offer pricing on SOFR 3-month futures and Fed funds futures, both of which can be useful in understanding where the market sees policy risk. My preference is SOFR futures, as they are comparatively more liquid, especially in the further-dated contracts for 2026 and 2027 and are more heavily traded than Fed funds futures. What is the SOFR rate? SOFR is one of, if not the most important, markets in the entire financial ecosystem. It is the first derivative of markets and is worth taking a moment to familiarise yourself with. SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) essentially represents the interest rate at which financial institutions lend cash overnight (and what borrowers pay), with borrowers pledging US Treasuries as collateral. The Federal Reserve influences SOFR through its monetary policy settings, with the rate typically tracking within the Fed’s target corridor. This corridor is defined by the upper bounds and what the Fed pays banks on reserves (currently 4.25%) and the lower bounds and what the Fed pays financial institutions that lend overnight repo to the Fed (the ‘RRP rate’, currently 4%). SOFR 3-month futures, therefore, reflect the market’s expectations of what the overnight risk-free rate will average over a defined three-month period at a forward point in time. For example, the SOFR 3-month December 2026 futures contract (TradingView code: SR3Z2026 ) reflects the market’s expected average interest rate on overnight cash borrowing from December 2026 through to the contract’s expiration on 16 March 2027. Since SOFR is guided by the Fed’s policy corridor, the futures price on that contract provides an indication of where the Fed could set interest rates at a given point in time. Calculating the markets expectations for future Fed policy from SOFR futures The price of SOFR 3-month futures moves dynamically through supply and demand, with rates traders reacting to economic data, Fed communications, sentiment in other markets (such as equities), and liquidity conditions. Upon expiration, futures are cash settled at 100 (or “par”), so the implied interest rate for a set contract is calculated as 100 minus the futures price. For example, if SR3Z2026 trades at 96.99, the implied rate for the SOFR between Dec 2026 and 16 March 2027 is 3.01% (100 – 96.99). If the current SOFR spot rate (TradingView code: SOFR) is 4.38%, this therefore implies that the market is pricing 139 basis points of further Fed rate cuts by early 2027. You can add all the SOFR 3-month futures contracts to a watchlist in TradingView, ordered by the contract period. For instance, starting with SR3U2025 (the September SOFR futures expiring on 16 December 2025). As we see in the screenshot, based on today’s curve, the perceived low point—or the pricing for the “terminal” rate—in the Fed’s cutting cycle is seen in the December 2026 contract, at 2.99%. Why is this useful for all traders? Firstly, it provides a clear guide to the market’s view of future Fed policy and what is currently already discounted in interest rate markets. This matters because the USD, US Treasuries, equities, and even gold tend to move in line with—or inversely to—shifts in interest rate futures pricing. If the market has fully priced in a rate cut, then when the Fed delivers that cut, the market reaction should be minimal. Conversely, if the market expects little or no cut and the Fed surprises by cutting rates, one can expect an outsized reaction in assets like the USD or US 2-year Treasury yields. This makes SOFR futures incredibly helpful for traders across asset classes when managing risk around key data releases or Fed meetings. They can also help assess perceived recession risk. If the Fed’s “neutral rate”—the equilibrium setting that is neither stimulatory nor restrictive—is 3%, and the market prices the terminal rate in the cutting cycle at the same level, this suggests a low probability of recession. A recession risk scenario would likely see the market pricing the Fed’s terminal rate well below 2.5%. Given how often the question “how do I know what’s priced in?” comes up, I hope this offers a clear framework for assessing it through SOFR futures on TradingView. Good luck to all
CME:SR3Z2026
by Pepperstone
XPO Short - Economy is WeakLooking for XPO to pull back significantly. There is only so much demand a given economy can generate, over the course of a given cycle. While we have been in a recession (in earnest) since early 2023, the stock market is just now figuring out that demand is increasingly absent and inflation has been the primary driver of all price growth for about 3.5 years now. I expect at least a 50% selloff, with the possibility that this market can go much much lower. Moreover, while indexes continue to make new highs, the real economy is completely detached (hence the XPO chart). Good luck and God bless!
NYSE:XPOShort
by ChiefMacro
2
Naspers: Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa BondsNaspers: Undervalued Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa Bond Stability Trends? $80 Target in Sight? Naspers (NPSNY) ADRs are trading at $67.69 today, up 0.5% amid positive South African market sentiment following the Treasury's smooth $2 billion Eurobond redemption and hints at new issuances to replenish reserves. This fiscal resilience has spurred foreign inflows into SA bonds, with R24.8 billion net buys recently, boosting local equities like Naspers—which has rallied 34% YTD on Tencent's AI-driven rebound. As #AI trends explode with 17K mentions on X (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #technology buzz hits 46K amid global chip and ad innovations, Naspers' indirect 24% stake in Tencent (via Prosus) positions it as an undervalued gateway to Chinese AI growth in gaming and cloud. But with a forward P/E of 15x, is NPSNY the discounted multi-bagger ready for a push to $80, or will China risks weigh it down? Let's dissect the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Naspers' value is deeply tied to its Prosus subsidiary, which holds a 24.3% stake in Tencent—valued at ~$120B against Naspers' $52B market cap, implying a 50%+ discount on sum-of-parts analysis. FY2025 results showed 21% Ecommerce revenue growth to $7B and an 18x EBIT improvement, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $4.50 (up 25% YoY) amid Tencent's AI tools launch. With #AI going viral, Naspers' exposure to Tencent's programming AI and cloud positions it perfectly, undervalued at 18% below fair value per DCF amid SA's bond stability signaling economic strength. However, regulatory risks in China loom if crackdowns intensify. - **Positive:** - Tencent stake undervalues Naspers by 50%+; $12.8B buybacks enhance shareholder value amid #technology hype and AI investments. - SA Eurobond redemption boosts foreign inflows (R41.3B YTD), supporting JSE rally and Naspers' 135% 3-year returns. - Broader #AI trends (e.g., Tencent's AI tool launch) project 20%+ CAGR for holdings. - **Negative:** - China exposure risks from geopolitics, clashing with #AI optimism if Tencent growth slows. - Upcoming 5-for-1 split (Oct 6) could add volatility if retail hype fades post-event. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Massive discount to Tencent holdings (50%+), amplified by #AI relevance in gaming/cloud; strong Ecommerce profitability with 18x EBIT jump. **Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on China assets (80%+ value); cyclical Ecommerce exposure in a #technology-shifting market. **Opportunities:** SA bond stability attracts inflows, unlocking value; #AI boom via Tencent could narrow discount to 30%, undervalued at 15x P/E amid 25% EPS growth. **Threats:** Regulatory changes in China eroding Tencent value; intense competition from global tech amid viral #AI discussions on X. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, NPSNY is in a strong uptrend, forming a bull flag after breaking $65 resistance, with volume spiking on SA bond news and mirroring #AI volatility surges. The weekly confirms higher highs from 2023 lows, now accelerating. Current price: $67.69, with VWAP at $67 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 65, bullish territory—room for upside amid #technology surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, indicating momentum build. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($64) and 50-day SMA ($62), golden cross intact. Support/Resistance: Key support at $65 (recent breakout), resistance at $70 (psychological) and $80 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Flag breakout targets $75; fueled by #AI momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on inflows. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overextension if China news hits. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $70 on Tencent AI updates or SA inflows targets $75 short-term, then $80 by year-end; buy pullbacks to $65, especially if #AI goes mainstream. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $65 eyes $60 (200-day EMA); watch for regulatory cross amid #technology fade. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $65–$70 if data mixed and #AI cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at $64. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #AI-linked assets like TCEHY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if NPSNY holds $65, supercharged by today's #AI and #technology trends plus SA's Eurobond stability, affirming its undervalued status with 18%+ upside on Tencent AI plays. But watch Q3 earnings and China policy for confirmation—this fits September's emerging market rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on Naspers amid #AI Tencent trends? Share in the comments!
OTC:NPSNYLong
by DCAChampion
Get Ready For a Bond Market CrisisThe yields on the US 10 Year Treasury are showing a really clear elliot wave outline that sugggests a big crisis may be coming. If we take a standard set of projection ratios relative to primary wave 1 (in green) then yields should easily break the 7.5 mark. This is going to crush risk premium, potentially lead to a crisis in the US, and could have far reaching consequences. Of course, if this is a wave 5 we're seeing into 2026 then yields could drop sharply - potentially in a 100% retracement of the move since 2020 - and theres only one reason why this might happen. Quite simply, a recession. So watch for the crisis in yields caused by a moonshot in the US 10 Year Yield, and then watch for the recession it causes when people actually start to buy percieved safe assets - bonds - and dump their risk assets.
TVC:TNX
by RogueEconomics
Unveiling the 40-Year Bond Yield Super-Cycle: Prepare for a potential Boom if we see a significant pullback in rates, followed by an Epic Bust thereafter! Overview: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield exhibits an 80-year cyclical pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave Theory at Super-Cycle and Cycle Degrees. The historical peak of 15.82% (Wave V) in the early 1980s marked the end of a Super-Cycle uptrend, followed by a corrective Wave C low of 0.33% around 2020. The current upward movement in Cycle Wave I suggests the beginning of a new 40-year inflationary half-cycle, with a projected peak around 2060, interspersed with shorter Cycle Degree waves (Wave I, Wave II, Wave III, Wave IV, and Wave V) that include resistance zones at 5.28% (horizontal resistance) and the upward Fibonacci retracement levels at 6.24%, 8.07%, and 9.03%. Implications for the Future: Inflation: Apart from a stimulative-induced pullback in rates marking a deep Cycle Degree Wave II decline near 2%—which could spike risk assets to fresh all-time highs before an epic bust—expect bouts of persistent rising inflation over the next 35 years as the Super Cycle inflationary momentum strengthens toward its peak in 2060. Stock Prices: Downside volatility may increase with higher yields, and blow-off top rallies may occur with ample stimulation from the Fed, further impacting already absurd equity valuations. Gold Price: If rates drop sharply and the dollar strengthens over the near to medium term, Gold may suffer a significant pullback. Apart from that, Gold is likely to appreciate significantly as a safe-haven asset, particularly if yields break out above horizontal resistance north of 5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. U.S Economy: The real economy and Wall Street's financialized economy have diverged by orders of magnitude over the last 45 years. The wealth gap between the haves and have-nots is nearing a breaking point. Once risk assets peak for this Super Cycle, the ensuing bust will take no prisoners, but may narrow the wealth gap to more tolerable levels. If things get severely disruptive as they tend to do in Super Cycles, don't be surprised if a new monetary regime is adopted between now and 2060.
TVC:US10Y
by Wave-Tech
1
Long bond bulls’ eye bigger breakoutThe bullish move in U.S. ultra-long bond futures anticipated last week has played out nicely, with the contract surging higher over the subsequent days, taking out a key topside hurdle comprising the 200DMA and horizontal resistance at 119’19. The move has now stalled at a downtrend from the highs set in September last year, a period when the Fed went full-bore dove on concerns the U.S. was potentially slipping into recession. Sound familiar? Zooming out, the contract is coiling within a falling wedge, a continuation pattern that points to the potential for a far larger extension of the bullish move should the price break and hold above the September 2024 downtrend. The signal from the breakout may not be as reliable as others given long bond futures have been anything but bullish in recent years, but convention suggests we could eventually revisit the September 2024 highs, implying a 30-year yield of less than 4%. 122’18 and 124’24 are minor levels to monitor on the topside before more significant tests await at 129’00, 132’00, 135’13 and the September 2024 swing high. RSI (14) and MACD point to building bullish momentum, favouring a similar directional bias that should improve the odds of the breakout sticking, should it occur. Good luck! DS
CBOT:UB1!Long
by FOREX.com
8
Bond yields are rocking to the upsideToday, bond yields are hitting the wires and causing a slight market sell-off. Fear is kicking in and investors are becoming even more cautious, as economic cracks start to appear. Let's dig in. TVC:US10Y TVC:US30Y TVC:JP30Y TVC:GB30Y TVC:EU30Y Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
TVC:US30Y
by Marketscom
Gold Deep Dive: Cycles, Correlations, Divergences, SymmetryGold has been in a raging bull market and almost up over 100% since its monthly bullish engulfing candle. Gold sniffing out week monetary policy and rallying on the back of easing global monetary policy. Historically from a trading standpoint, Gold is extremely overbought and could be 4-8 weeks away from a considerable pullback of 15-30% . Many Signals such as symmetrical moves, Monthly overbought RSI, Copper / Gold Divergence, GDX resistance is telling us to use caution and trim long profits. It does seem like gold wants $3500 before it has a reversal back down. We are looking for a liquidity sweep of the ATH as a possible short zone. (Not FA advice) Once gold resets some indicators and allows longer term moving average to catch up it will likely keep pushing but we only for see that in mid to late 2026. If we make a new high....we don't see much upside for the next 3-6 months.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading-Capital
1
NYSE - Short | Disaster ImminentStocks continue to struggle, as economic reality rapidly sets in. Of all the indexes, the NYA (NYSE) is the most telling, in my view. To that end, I really don't have much to say, other than this is a beautiful bearish formation, with the economic backdrop to support a short-thesis. Bank losses are beyond anything this world has ever seen, credit defaults are skyrocketing (and holding new highs), bankruptcies have surpassed covid levels, crypto fraud is completely out of control, and wars are raging on 3 continents. The only question now is how deep will it go and how quickly will / to what extent will the federal government intervene? Expect a couple years of deterioration to the downside. Good luck and godspeed!
TVC:NYAShort
by ChiefMacro
2
US05Y Bullish ideaWe can see we had rejection after taking out our sell side liquidity and balancing our daily fair value gap. We are still showing strength in the bond market as well with the dollar index. Our DOL is to the upside in the form of buyside liquidity and our daily volume imbalance at 4.073%. * Fundamentals: We are having a rise in inflation and a stronger interest rate of the dollar against most of the major basket currency pairs, which in the longer term should potentially see us get a stronger dollar and an increase in our bond yields.
TVC:US05YLong
by That_Guy_Trades