USD – The dollar set a 16-month high against the euro on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was nominated for a second four-year term by President Biden. Western Union Business Solutions noted that “with Powell being renominated for a second term, that suggests a less dovish outlook for monetary policy than under a potential Brainard leadership. It...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most...
CHF: Bullish momentum unlikely to last The CHF strengthened significantly in October with EURCHF sustaining a break below 1.06. The decline in the cross means EURCHF now appears very cheap relative to our short-term fair value model STEER™ and macro fair value model MarFA™. This is suggestive of an FX flow, rather than fundamentals driving a stronger CHF. We...
USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The BoE took a hit to their credibility with their November policy decision when the bank voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold and also had a very clear U-turn among some of the recent hawkish comments from the likes of Bailey and Pill. Going into the meeting markets had fully priced a...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
Hi there. Price is moving impulsively to the upside. Wait for the price to complete the continuation pattern that its forming and watch strong price action for buy.
CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised to put an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by explaining that project economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but...
CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised to put an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by explaining that project economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but...
USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting...