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TLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel. TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a...
Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT : In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition....
TPs of 125 and 130 seem reasonable with massive growth deceleration coming. Maybe even ~140
Look at the pivot finally form? It’s been a long fall but look at the change of the pivot finally forming. Anyone else see this reversal?
TLT (20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF) Huge drop since January 2022. If you connect all the big lows since 2013 and draw a line you will notice that TLT is now sitting on a huge support and has starting to bounce off the 119 level (Green line). RSI weekly and daily oversold. Let's see if we can get a decent bounce. I'm long April 29 call. We can target 125,...
We reached the bottom of our green box defined 4 months ago. Inflation caused this impressive dump in TLT and we have reached the monthly GZ long (insisting basic move). The impulse down (with an extended 5th) could be the first leg of a macro ABC down. The break of the monthly GZ long we are currently sitting on would confirm this. RSI digging. Please like...
After the whole round trip that started when covid hit, I think we are getting closer to a big, long position in bonds. The price range on the chart is where I will start buying and expecting to see seller exhaustion and trouble pushing it down further. Sentiment is really weak and you have people late to party trying to short right now to pick pennies in front of...
TLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P...
The US bond market got it right in 1936, in 1947, 2008, 2011, and it still has it right today. The people doing the real dollar printing are the same people that run the biggest repo and bond trading desks - they know what's up (and it's not inflation).
Readers familiar with traditional financial world will recognise the generational downtrend of every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts. US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before the immortal rate Bear is final through. TVC:US30 TVC:US30Y NASDAQ:TLT CBOT:UB1!
Things are becoming weird in bonds with the disruption caused by the recent FOMC. The red GZ of the extension should hold. However, the problem you might be facing here is if you added afterwards, which increased your average cost. We have nothing to do below the level of subminuette A. The triangle W4 would be disproportionate. Please like and share if you...
Admittedly, the above Chart is Richly Busy. The Crux this is the true "Don't Fight The Fed" expression. Long Strong the Final Bond, with this upside breakout. NASDAQ:TLT
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This GZ long in ZB must hold to maintain short-term bullishness in bonds and TLT. Please like and share if you appreciate this market update. We are algorithmic traders and certified Elliotticians. We publish Elliott Wave counts for indices, stocks, cryptos, commodities, VIX, DXY, in weekly, daily and 4-hour timeframes. We also answer all your questions...
Based on the updated chart formations, I expect the US10y to fall out of this rising channel with a floor of around 1.0, then rapidly rise to at least 1.95. This should begin to play out over the next 1-2weeks. The theory becomes invalid if yields continue to rise in the channel to above 1.36.
a little higher? or much higher? looks like an IHS continuation
Please like and share if you appreciate this market update. We are algorithmic traders and certified Elliotticians. We publish Elliott Wave counts for indices, stocks, cryptos, commodities, VIX, DXY, in weekly, daily and 4-hour timeframes. We also answer all your questions regarding the Elliott Wave Principle! Cryptos are updated every day of the week and on...