Trading Craft 101 · Lesson 03 — The Trade Plan🔵 THE PLAN BEFORE THE TRADE
A trade without a written plan is a guess with leverage. The plan answers four questions before the position exists: where do I enter, where does the idea die, where do I take profit, and how much am I willing to lose? Written down — not in the head. The head rewrites history; the paper does not.
🔵 THE FOUR FIELDS
Entry: the trigger, not the zone — the exact price condition that gets you in. Invalidation: the level where the setup's idea is wrong — that is the stop, and it exists before entry. Target: the level where the reason for the trade is satisfied — 1R to 3R, defined by structure, not by hope. Risk: the fixed budget that converts the stop distance into size.
🔵 WHY WRITING CHANGES BEHAVIOR
Writing forces precision. "Buy near support" is not a plan — "buy on a rejection close above 4,320, stop below 4,290, first target 4,390" is. The act of writing exposes the gaps you would otherwise fill in mid-trade, when the price is moving and the judgment is worst.
🔵 THE PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST
Before entry, four questions, in order: is the setup still valid? Is the invalidation exactly where I wrote it? Does the size match the risk budget? Would I take this trade if I were flat and calm right now? One "no" — no trade.
Next lesson: backtesting — how to test the plan honestly before risking money on it.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. 
Education
XAUUSD TDA - Is XAUUSD Setting Up for a Major Correction?XAUUSD Top-Down Analysis – 4H, Daily & Weekly
4-Hour Outlook
Price has rallied aggressively back into the higher-timeframe 4,590–4,690 resistance / AOI .
The 4H chart is now the timeframe I want to use for confirmation that sellers are beginning to regain control.
I am watching for rejection, a lower high, bearish change of character or a break in the current short-term bullish structure.
As long as price struggles to establish acceptance above the AOI, I favor the possibility of a larger corrective move lower.
The ultimate downside objective remains the major ascending support around the 3,800–3,900 region .
Daily Outlook
Daily price has rallied directly into the same 4,590–4,690 resistance zone , giving us strong higher-timeframe confluence.
RSI is showing bullish momentum fading as price pushes into resistance.
This suggests the rally may be losing strength rather than beginning another clean expansion higher.
My preferred scenario is a rejection from this area followed by a correction toward the green ascending support .
A sustained break and acceptance above 4,690 would weaken the bearish scenario.
Weekly Outlook
The long-term structure remains bullish , so this is currently a correction thesis rather than a complete trend reversal.
Price is trading inside a major weekly premium / resistance area around 4,590–4,690 .
The previous major high also produced bearish RSI divergence , showing weakening momentum at the top of the broader structure.
A deeper correction could eventually bring Gold back toward approximately 3,866 , where horizontal support and the long-term ascending trendline converge.
That area could become a very important longer-term bullish reaction zone if reached.
Fundamental Backdrop
The fundamental picture is also becoming increasingly important. July PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.7% year-over-year , while core PCE remained firm around 3.3% . Persistent inflation is keeping the possibility of tighter Federal Reserve policy alive and has already helped push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher.
That matters for Gold because higher yields and expectations for higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as Gold. Gold already fell more than 1% following the latest inflation data as markets increased expectations for further Fed tightening.
Jackson Hole Risk – Tomorrow
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow, August 28.
If Warsh emphasizes persistent inflation and the need to keep policy restrictive , yields and the dollar could strengthen further.
That would likely add additional pressure to Gold and support the technical bearish-correction scenario.
Several Fed officials are already expressing concern that inflation remains too high, with some suggesting additional tightening may still be necessary.
However, a softer or more dovish message could weaken the dollar and quickly invalidate the immediate bearish momentum.
Overall Bias
The larger Gold trend remains bullish, but the combination of major resistance, weakening momentum, persistent inflation and Jackson Hole event risk creates a strong case for watching for a corrective move lower. The 4H chart will be used for confirmation, while the larger target remains the ascending support around 3,800–3,900. 
Short
CADJPY Short: 115.50 Rejection Could Send This to 111.00CADJPY is approaching a major decision zone after retracing deeply into the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci area, with key resistance sitting around 115.48.
The larger structure still favors a bearish continuation scenario following the aggressive selloff from the 116.00+ region into the 111.80 area. Price has now retraced a large portion of that move, which gives sellers a much more attractive location to potentially re-enter.
Fundamentally, the setup also has several factors working in its favor.
Canada is facing renewed trade uncertainty, which creates additional pressure on the CAD outlook. At the same time, expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening continue to provide a potential source of support for the Japanese yen.
Jackson Hole is another major catalyst to watch. If the event produces a risk-off reaction across global markets, JPY could benefit from carry-trade unwinding while cyclical currencies such as CAD come under pressure.
Technically, I am watching the 115.00–115.50 area very closely for rejection.
Key levels:
* Resistance: 115.00–115.48
* First downside level: 113.34
* Secondary target: 112.00
* Main bearish target: 111.00
RSI has also recovered back toward neutral territory, meaning momentum is no longer heavily oversold and there is room for another downside expansion.
The ideal confirmation would be a bearish daily rejection, bearish engulfing candle, or lower-timeframe change of character from the current resistance zone.
A sustained break and close above 115.50–116.00 would weaken the bearish thesis.
Base case: rejection from the current premium zone followed by a continuation toward 113.34, 112.00 and potentially 111.00.
This is a scenario-based trade idea, not financial advice. XAUUSD 4H Trendline Confluence | High Probability Short ScalpingGold continues to respect the broader bearish market structure , with price trading beneath multiple descending trendlines that have capped every meaningful rally over the past several weeks.
My primary focus is the 4,075 to 4,085 resistance region , where several technical factors converge:
• Descending macro trendline resistance
• Short-term ascending support turned resistance
• Previous horizontal support/resistance around 4,078
• Psychological resistance after the recent rebound
This creates a high-probability short scalping zone if price rallies into this area and begins to show bearish rejection.
Trade Plan:
• Wait for price to reach the highlighted resistance zone.
• Look for bearish confirmation such as a rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, or lower high on the lower timeframes.
• Enter short only after confirmation, not before.
• Initial targets would be the recent swing lows, with potential for a continuation if the overall downtrend remains intact.
As always, risk management comes first. If price breaks above the confluence zone and establishes acceptance above it, the bearish setup becomes invalid and I'll wait for a new structure to develop.
Key Resistance: 4,075-4,085
Bias: Bearish while below trendline resistance.
This is my personal technical analysis and trade plan, not financial advice. Always wait for confirmation before entering a position. Short 
Long
BTCUSD Trade Plan – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin remains technically bearish following the sharp impulsive selloff from the $82,000 region down into the $60,000 area. The recent rally appears corrective rather than impulsive, with price retracing into key Fibonacci resistance levels after failing to establish a sustained bullish structure.
The most recent bearish impulse leg broke market structure aggressively to the downside, signaling a shift in momentum from accumulation to distribution. Since then, BTCUSD has been consolidating and retracing higher into a potential sell zone between the 0.382 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area aligns with prior support turned resistance and represents a favorable location for sellers to re-enter the market.
From a macro perspective, last week's Federal Reserve meeting resulted in interest rates being left unchanged as policymakers maintained a cautious stance toward inflation. The market is now focused on Thursday's PCE Inflation report, which is forecast to rise to 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely reinforce the current strength in the U.S. Dollar and support the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative. Historically, a strengthening dollar creates headwinds for risk assets such as Bitcoin, increasing the probability of further downside continuation.
Technical Outlook
The current trade plan anticipates Bitcoin completing its corrective rally before initiating another major bearish expansion leg.
Primary Sell Zone
• $65,400 – $67,900
Confluence of:
• 0.382 Fibonacci retracement
• 0.50 Fibonacci retracement
• Previous support turned resistance
• Daily bearish order flow
Invalidation
• Sustained daily closes above $67,900
• This would suggest a deeper retracement toward higher Fibonacci levels and weaken the immediate bearish thesis.
Downside Targets
TP1: $62,014
The first objective sits near current support and offers a logical area for partial profit taking.
TP2: $56,016
This level represents the next major support zone and would confirm continuation of the broader bearish trend.
TP3: $45,444
The ultimate target aligns with a full measured move projection from the recent bearish impulse and represents approximately 30% downside potential from the proposed entry area.
Trading Narrative
The larger structure remains bearish until proven otherwise. The recent bounce appears to be a corrective retracement following a strong impulsive decline rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. As long as Bitcoin remains below the $67,900 resistance zone, the path of least resistance remains lower.
With the Federal Reserve maintaining rates and inflation data taking center stage this week, traders should closely monitor Thursday's PCE release. If inflation accelerates as expected and the U.S. Dollar continues strengthening, Bitcoin could struggle to attract sustained buying pressure and may begin the next leg lower toward the $62,014, $56,016, and ultimately $45,444 downside objectives.
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: $65,400 – $67,900
Stop Zone: Above $67,900
Targets: $62,014 → $56,016 → $45,444
Risk Environment: Elevated volatility ahead of Thursday's PCE Inflation report. Short 
BTC is starting to look interesting here.My thinking is pretty simple: as we head into earnings season, and if tensions with Iran begin to cool off, the market could shift back into a stronger risk-on mood. If that happens, equities catch a bid, and BTC usually likes that kind of environment too.
From a technical standpoint, we just pushed above resistance and the chart is starting to show some clear bottoming action. That’s why I’m leaning bullish on this setup. I’ve already mapped out the risk clearly on screen with my stop loss and take profit, keeping it clean with a 1:5 risk-reward ratio.
For me, this is the kind of setup I like most: clear breakout, defined invalidation, and enough room upside to make the trade worth taking.
Now price just needs to follow through.
Do you guys think BTC is ready for the next leg higher, or is this breakout about to fake everyone out?
Trade Safe - Trade Well.
Comment your thoughts, like, and share if you’re watching BTC too. Long 
Long
Waiting for XAUUSD to retest 4600Gold is still trading within a broader daily uptrend, and I’m looking to buy the pullback rather than chase price. The main idea is that price has pulled back from the highs into a key area of interest around the 4600 handle, which lines up with prior structure and the rising trendline support zone. That makes this a high-confluence region for a potential bullish continuation.
The plan is to let gold retrace into that discount area and look for signs of demand stepping back in. If price reacts properly around 4585–4600, I’ll be looking for the market to hold that zone and rotate higher. The upside target is a move back toward the 4915 area, giving roughly a 1:3 risk-to-reward profile, while invalidation sits below the recent support low around 4475.
From a momentum standpoint, RSI is recovering from oversold conditions, which suggests the selloff may be losing strength. So overall, this is a trend-continuation long setup based on pullback entry, structure support, and momentum stabilization.
A tighter version if you want to post it somewhere:
Gold daily setup: waiting for a pullback into the 4600 handle to get long. This zone lines up with my AOI, prior structure, and rising trendline support, giving solid confluence for a continuation move higher. As long as price holds this area, I’m targeting a push back toward 4915, with invalidation below 4475, giving about a 1:3 R:R. RSI is also curling up from lower levels, which supports the idea of fading bearish momentum. Long 
Trading the First Pullback in PEP: Play When It’s in PlayIn this post, I will break down the First Pullback Pattern and use a real example in PEP to show exactly how the trade is structured.
First, we identify the context (the First Pullback).
Then we apply a structured execution method (WRB Fade).
The key idea is simple:
Only trade when the market is in play.
So how do you know when a market is in play?
You’ll see a clear impulse move — an expansion with urgency as traders are forced into or out of positions. Bars expand in size and begin pushing with less overlap than the previous bars.
The First Pullback Pattern is exactly what it sounds like:
The first pullback that occurs after this impulse move.
Workflow
1. Wait for the market to be in play (a clear impulse move).
2. Identify the first pullback after that impulse.
3. Execute the trade using a structured rule-based plan with defined entry, stop, and management.
4. Repeat the same process in back tests and live trades to build skill with the pattern.
By locking into one pattern, one context, and one entry method, our trading becomes far more precise and far less random.
Now we have something we can test, track, and measure.
That’s what turns a “setup idea” into a real, repeatable trading process.
Link to WRB Trade Planner
Shane 
Long
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin still looks structurally bullish The big picture is this: price made a strong impulsive move up, then pulled back into a major breakout area. That rising trendline you marked as “ascending resistance” is really more like a broken resistance line now being tested as support. That is usually a bullish sign when it holds.
The key zone on this chart is around 61,260. That level lines up with the horizontal support and the rising trendline, so it is a real decision point. As long as Bitcoin keeps defending that area on monthly closes, this looks more like a healthy correction than a trend reversal. In simple terms, bulls are trying to turn old resistance into new support.
Right now, 72,546 is the first level that needs to be reclaimed with strength. If price can push back above that area and start closing monthly candles higher, it would suggest the pullback is losing steam and the market may be getting ready for continuation to the upside. That would open the door for a move back toward the higher monthly range and eventually the prior peak zone.
The bearish case is pretty clear too: if Bitcoin loses 61,260 on a monthly closing basis, this setup weakens fast. Then the market likely needs a deeper correction before the next real leg higher.
So the clean read is:
Bitcoin is still bullish on the monthly timeframe, but it is sitting right on a make-or-break support zone. Hold 61,260, and this can turn into a strong continuation setup. Lose it, and the correction probably gets deeper.
Trade Safe - Trade Well Long 
Long 
Long
EUR/USD at the Crossroads: Safe-Haven Dollar Dominates The EUR/USD pair is navigating treacherous waters, as depicted in the daily chart, where a potential head-and-shoulders pattern looms large. The price action shows a "gapped lower" move, signaling bearish momentum, with the RSI dipping into oversold territory at around 43.35. The chart highlights a descending resistance line capping upside attempts, while support levels are tested amid projections of further downside to the 1.14 handle. Yet, there's room for optimism if bulls can muster a rally to form a "potential second shoulder" near 1.17. As of March 9, 2026, the pair hovers around 1.158, caught between economic headwinds and escalating global tensions that bolster the USD's safe-haven appeal.
Bullish Setup: Rally to Resistance and Second Shoulder Formation
In a bullish scenario, EUR/USD could stage a rebound from current levels, targeting the descending resistance around 1.17-1.18. This move might complete a second shoulder in the emerging head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially delaying a full breakdown. Support from softer U.S. data could weaken the dollar, allowing euro bulls to capitalize on any dovish Federal Reserve signals. Key triggers include a failure to break below the recent "gapped lower" point near 1.156, with momentum building if RSI climbs above 50. Upside targets: initial resistance at 1.1626, then 1.1744, with a break above the descending line opening doors to 1.2000. However, this setup hinges on cooling inflation and reduced geopolitical risks, which could erode the USD's strength.
Bearish Setup: Momentum Drives Down to the 1.14 Handle
Conversely, if bearish momentum persists, EUR/USD risks a sharper decline toward the 1.14 support zone, as labeled on the chart. A breakdown below 1.1495 could accelerate selling, fueled by persistent USD demand. The "down to the 1.14 handle" projection aligns with the chart's downward trajectory, potentially exacerbated by hot inflation data reinforcing Fed hawkishness. Downside targets: immediate support at 1.1526, followed by 1.1400-1.1495. This scenario gains traction if RSI remains below 40, signaling oversold but unbroken bearish control.
Last Week's NFP Shock and Market Reaction
Last Friday's February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivered a bombshell, with U.S. job growth contracting by 92,000—far worse than the expected +59,000 and a stark reversal from January's revised +126,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, attributed to severe winter weather and a major health-care strike. Despite the weak data hinting at labor market cracks, markets reacted counterintuitively: the USD strengthened, pushing EUR/USD lower by about 0.5% intraday. This "bad news is good for the dollar" dynamic underscores the overriding influence of safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty, overriding typical rate-cut expectations from soft jobs figures.
Dollar's Safe-Haven Surge Amid War Intensity
The USD's resilience stems from intensifying Middle East conflicts, where U.S.-Israeli strikes under "Operation Epic Fury" killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, prompting Iranian retaliatory missiles and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged—WTI up 34% last week, Brent topping $90 per barrel—stoking stagflation fears and driving capital into U.S. assets. As traditional havens like gold and Treasuries compete, the dollar has reclaimed its "king" status, with analysts noting its rally as a "perfect storm" of geopolitical risk and market depth. This has pressured EUR/USD, as eurozone vulnerabilities to energy shocks amplify the pair's downside bias.
Major Economic Data This Week: What to Watch For
Upcoming High-Impact Risk Events – Week of March 9–15, 2026 (EUR/USD Focus | All times UTC unless noted)
This week features major inflation data from the Eurozone and US, amid persistent geopolitical tensions and oil-driven pressures. Volatility expected around key releases—watch for surprises that could reinforce USD safe-haven flows or spark EUR rebounds.
Monday, March 9
All Day: EUR – Eurogroup Meetings (policy signals on eurozone stability; dovish tone could pressure EUR)
Wednesday, March 11
07:00 UTC | EUR | German CPI (Final) y/y – Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.9% (Key ECB inflation gauge; hotter print supportive for EUR)
07:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone CPI y/y – Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.9% (Broad inflation read; upside surprise bolsters euro vs. USD)
12:30 UTC | USD | US CPI y/y – Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.4% (Headline watch; hotter-than-expected delays Fed cuts → USD strength)
12:30 UTC | USD | US Core CPI m/m – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3% (Ex-food/energy; persistent heat signals stagflation risk → USD positive)
Friday, March 13
12:30 UTC | USD | US Core PCE Price Index m/m (Jan) – Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.4% (Fed's preferred inflation metric; upside risks heighten hawkish bias → USD boost)
12:30 UTC | USD | PCE Price Index y/y (Jan) – Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.8% (Broader PCE read; sticky core could reinforce USD gains)
Other Notable Releases This Week
Eurozone Industrial Production (various dates) – Watch for weakness that could weigh on EUR
US Q4 GDP (secondary/revision estimates) – Potential growth narrative shifts
Geopolitical updates (Middle East tensions) remain a wildcard for safe-haven USD flows
Quick Trading Notes
Hotter US inflation (CPI/PCE) → Likely accelerates USD rally toward 1.14 downside targets
Cooler Eurozone data or dovish signals → Limits EUR downside, possible bounce to 1.17 resistance
Scale positions gradually; use tight stops around data prints to manage drawdown
Trading EUR/USD: Scaling In and Out to Minimize Drawdown
Trading this volatile setup demands risk management, especially with drawdowns from sudden news spikes. Adopt a scaling strategy to build positions gradually and exit in parts, keeping exposure low (e.g., 1-2% per trade).
Bullish Trade Plan: Scale into longs on dips above 1.156 (e.g., enter 1/3 position at 1.158, add at 1.162 if holds). Target partial profits at 1.17 (exit 1/2), with full exit at descending resistance (1.18+). Stop-loss below 1.1495. This limits drawdown by averaging in during consolidation.
Bearish Trade Plan: Scale into shorts on rallies to 1.162 (e.g., 1/3 at 1.160, add below 1.156 break). Book partial gains at 1.1526 (exit 1/2), aiming for 1.14. Stop-loss above 1.1744. Use trailing stops to lock profits, reducing drawdown during reversals.
Monitor position sizing—never exceed 5% total risk—and use correlated assets like USD Index futures for confirmation. In this environment, patience pays: wait for data confirmation before full commitment.
As Middle East tensions simmer and data unfolds, EUR/USD's fate hangs in the balance. Stay vigilant— the dollar's safe-haven crown isn't yielding easily. Long
BTCUSD Daily Technical Analysis – Bearish Continuation BiasMarket Structure & Trend
Bitcoin is clearly in a macro downtrend on the daily timeframe.
Price has broken market structure from the October high and continues to print lower highs and lower lows
The recent upside move was corrective, not impulsive — price failed below the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone
BTC was rejected from a key supply zone / prior distribution range (highlighted red box)
Long-term ascending trendline has been decisively broken
Momentum is rolling over again after a weak bounce
This is classic bear market retracement → continuation behavior.
Fibonacci & Key Levels
Measured from the swing high to the December low:
0.382–0.5 Fib zone acted as resistance (clean rejection)
Failure to reclaim 0.5 confirms sellers remain in control
Price is now threatening continuation toward major liquidity below
Key downside liquidity targets:
80,000 (local support, likely to break)
72,000–70,000 (next liquidity pocket)
55,000–54,000 (major HTF demand and prior accumulation base)
That 54,900 area is the real magnet if fear hits.
RSI & Momentum
RSI rolled over from mid-range, failed to regain bullish territory
No bullish divergence present
Momentum favors continuation lower, not reversal
Fundamental Catalyst – FOMC Risk
This week’s FOMC meeting is a major volatility trigger.
If:
Powell stays hawkish
Rates stay higher for longer
Liquidity expectations get pushed out
Crypto does not like that environment , and BTC typically reacts fast and hard.
Technicals already point lower — FOMC can be the fuel.
Trade Plan – Short Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry (Sell)
Option 1 – Aggressive
Sell on a daily close below 84,000
Option 2 – Conservative
Sell on a pullback into 86,500–88,000 (prior support turned resistance)
Stop Loss
Initial SL: 91,500
Above supply zone and failed Fib reclaim
If price gets here, the bearish thesis is invalidated
Take Profit Targets
Scale out — don’t be greedy.
TP1: 80,000
TP2: 72,000
TP3 (Runner): 55,000–54,000 HTF demand zone
Trade Management (Very Important)
Once trade is +3,000 points in profit:
Move Stop Loss to Breakeven +1,000 points
Activate trailing stop of 3,000 points
Let volatility work for you — especially during FOMC
This protects capital while keeping you in for the flush.
Invalidation
This bearish setup is invalid if:
BTC reclaims and holds above 92,000 on a daily close
Strong bullish displacement through the supply zone
Until then — rallies are sells.
Bottom Line
This chart is distribution → breakdown → weak retracement → continuation.
If FOMC delivers even mild hawkish surprise, Bitcoin has clean air below and a very real path toward 70k and potentially mid-50s.
Trade it like a professional:
Defined risk
Mechanical execution
No emotional attachment
Short 
EURUSD Outlook: Slow Grind Higher, USD Holds the KeyEURUSD is trading near the 1.18 handle, continuing a steady grind higher that began off the late-2025 lows. The move has been controlled rather than explosive, reflecting improving sentiment toward the euro alongside a dollar that is losing momentum rather than collapsing outright.
From a higher-level perspective, EURUSD is no longer deeply discounted. Energy risk has faded, fragmentation fears have eased, and the euro area has avoided fresh negative shocks. At the same time, the dollar is no longer supported by an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, leaving the pair biased higher but still sensitive to incoming US data.
Macro and Fundamental Backdrop
Both central banks remain firmly data-dependent.
The Fed is holding a “higher for longer, but flexible” stance following its 2025 cutting cycle. Real yields remain positive, but well below prior peaks, which limits upside for the dollar unless US data re-accelerate meaningfully.
The ECB is also cautious. Growth is weak but stabilizing, inflation continues to ease, and markets are pricing gradual cuts rather than aggressive easing. As a result, rate-differential pressure against the euro has narrowed instead of widening.
US data have become increasingly mixed. Services and labor remain resilient, but manufacturing and several forward-looking indicators are softening. This caps sustained dollar strength and leaves EURUSD more responsive to negative USD surprises than positive euro shocks.
Risk sentiment remains constructive but fragile. Equities are holding up, credit spreads are contained, and this environment tends to support EURUSD relative to classic risk-off regimes.
Key USD Catalysts This Week (EST)
With the euro-area calendar relatively quiet, USD events dominate near-term risk:
Monday, 08:30 AM EST, Durable Goods Orders
Monday, 08:30 AM EST, Core Durable Goods Orders, a key signal for US business investment and growth momentum. Weak core readings would undermine USD support.
Tuesday, 03:30 PM EST, Trump Speech, political rhetoric around trade, tariffs, or fiscal policy can inject volatility and uncertainty into the dollar.
Wednesday, 02:00 PM EST, FOMC Policy Decision and Statement
Fed Chair Press Conference, where tone around inflation and growth risks can move rates and the dollar quickly.
With no major euro-side risk events scheduled, EURUSD is asymmetrically exposed to USD weakness this week.
Technical Analysis (H1)
On the 1-hour chart, EURUSD has transitioned cleanly from consolidation into a strong impulsive rally. Market structure is clearly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows confirmed following the breakout from the prior range.
Once price reclaimed and held above the 21-period SMA, momentum expanded aggressively. The rally accelerated into an extended impulse leg, pushing price significantly above the moving average.
This has created a wide deviation from the 21 SMA, signaling strong bullish participation but also highlighting short-term stretch. Historically, this level of extension increases the probability of a pause, consolidation, or pullback toward the mean rather than immediate continuation at the same pace.
Following the first impulse, price briefly consolidated before pushing higher again. That consolidation zone now acts as near-term support, while the most recent highs define resistance.
Momentum and RSI
RSI is firmly overbought, confirming strong upside momentum but also reinforcing exhaustion risk. Overbought conditions do not imply immediate reversal, but they do argue against chasing price at extremes without a pullback or fresh catalyst.
Putting It All Together
Structure, bullish
Momentum, strong but extended
Price, stretched well above the 21 SMA
RSI, overbought
Macro, supportive but dependent on USD data
Conclusion
EURUSD remains bullish from a structural and macro perspective, but the current rally is technically stretched. The higher-probability scenarios are either a controlled pullback toward the 21 SMA or sideways consolidation before the next directional move.
With euro-area risk limited this week, USD data and political headlines are the main catalysts. Any downside surprise in US core data, dovish Fed communication, or destabilizing rhetoric increases the odds that EURUSD holds higher levels and eventually challenges the upper 1.18–1.19 zone.
Chasing price at current levels carries elevated risk. Patience and pullbacks offer better risk-reward unless a clear USD-driven catalyst fuels continuation. EURUSD Technical OutlookOn the daily timeframe, EURUSD has nearly completed a pullback into the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement, an area that often attracts responsive price action. From a short term perspective, this may present scalping opportunities, provided price reacts cleanly at key levels.
For the week ahead, I expect EURUSD to chop between the 1.16 and 1.17 handle, as the market digests upcoming macro data.
I currently have early sell pending orders around the 1.1676 area, intended to scale into potential short exposure should price trade into that zone. This aligns with the red highlighted area on the chart, which represents a zone of supply and potential reaction.
On the downside, the blue horizontal zones mark areas of interest for the buy side. These are levels where I would expect responsive demand to step in, particularly if price weakens following high impact U.S. data.
There remains risk of a deeper pullback following U.S. CPI, especially if inflation prints stronger than expected. In that scenario, downside liquidity toward the lower end of the range becomes more attractive before any sustainable directional move develops.
== Weekly Trade Planning Insight ==
Historically, Wednesdays tend to produce choppy and whipsaw price action, especially during weeks loaded with economic data. In many cases, the best decision is capital preservation.
A structured approach for the week ahead
Manage or close positions by Tuesday
Avoid initiating new trades on Wednesday
Reassess structure and liquidity on Thursday
Re enter positions at better prices with improved reward to risk
This approach often results in cleaner execution, reduced emotional trading, and better overall performance.
== Final Thought ==
Trading success is built on preparation, not activity. This week is about waiting for clarity, respecting macro risk, and executing only when conditions align.
Let me know your thoughts by leaving a comment below.
