If you get involved in provocative acts, saying ‘foreign currencies will strengthen, this will happen, that will happen’, you will pay a very heavy price - Erdogan
TRY
Fundamental Quant Score +60
USD
Fundamental Quant Score -4
Investors seek reforms, fear populism
Lira initially weakened 2.5 percent
Shares rise 1 percent (Updates lira, adds London...
Bond yield inversion
Bond yields across the globe continued to decline this week, as bond traders offered the strongest indication yet that a global economic recession may be coming. The US ten-year bond yield dipped below the yield of the three-month Treasury bill for the first time in over seven years, while German and Japanese 10-year bond yields continued...
Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence.
For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached:...
This analysis started from the lows 2 months ago and after a very slow completion of the double bottom, the neckline broke past week and in one sweep it went straight to it's target. It has been moving around a lot since, already made a 50% correction as well, so very dangerous asset to trade now. Many have asked me for an update on this one, so i am going to try,...
I believe the local election would help to the goverment for next few days and Mr. Albayrak has announced they will show the economic programme in April. But i think that programme will suck cause the Turkey have more serious economical and political problems like unemployment rate is most highest rate before the 2008, the inequality of the Turkish citizens are...
Over this year expecting a possible strength shift in GBP. The TRY took a massive hit in the last COUP causing a huge spike in the GBPTRY exchange rate. The long term political instability is likely to continue as it's not the first time this has happened.
Exchange rate likely to reach levels seens during that time.
In my previous analysis i showed a possible flag pattern could be formed against the resistance of the double bottom neckline. So far that is exactly what happend. On the right we can see the shape of a triangle. All triangles can breakout both ways, but since this one is an ascending which is being formed against a resistance zone , it is more likely to see it...
Interesting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South...
Interesting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South...
