Over this year expecting a possible strength shift in GBP. The TRY took a massive hit in the last COUP causing a huge spike in the GBPTRY exchange rate. The long term political instability is likely to continue as it's not the first time this has happened.
Exchange rate likely to reach levels seens during that time.
The pair has been trading on a strong 1W downtrend (Highs/Lows = -0.4121, B/BP = -0.5351) that recently appears to be slowing down. This may be an indication of a support on the 1W level (6.2070 - 6.5610). However a sequence of repetitive Triangle patterns illustrates that at least a -3.54% decline is expected to follow the completion of the most recent Triangle....
if the lira manages to evade the falling wedge pattern against the pound & lira strengthens , this will be very bullish for the lira.
Current pattern projects the lira weakening against pound , lets see what happens
Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get...
unfortunately the usa is waging economic war fare on turkey , Turkish lira suffered greatly has since recovered abit . the pattern indicates things will get worse , unless dramatic measures are taken . lets see how this plays out .
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