TYX is still in a down trend though it is trying to rebound. It is in a triangle and can break out or break down. When it is the triangle the market is checked.
MACD negative. I will watch the blue support line. If it breaks, it might retest the all time low.
40 week MA rolled over and is pointing down. Also a down slop channel is formed.
A small breakout and a healthy RSI and MACD look. A close above 2.68 will confirm the short term bullish move.
Japan 30 years: 1.192; German 30 years: 0.933 (as of today). US 30 years: 2.56. So in terms of global balancing, US long bond rate has more room to fall.
Broke down, made lower high after lower lows. Could hit 2.5 if the trend continues.
Price, RSI and MACD all have a rolled over looking, but we want the blue support to break for confirmation.
The red resistance is critical. It is forming an inverse head and shoulders. A breakout means the rate can go as high as 3.3. So far the trend is still up.
Back in November, I thought there might be a breakout just like May 2013. It did not happen and instead the rate dropped about 20 basis points. Note both price and RSI are breaking down. RSI is negative even though just a little bit. Is it targeting 2%? We will have to wait and see.
Past 4 bond routs lasted 12 - 15 months, touched the red resistance line and then backed off. If history is the guide, the current one has been going on for 5 months now and may have another 7 - 10 months to go and may touch 3.7. So looks like any bond rally should be sold/short until the target 3.7 is reached.
This is a followup to the same chart from last month. The yield spread did manage to break out (red resistance line and 10 MA). But we do not know what this means to the broad market at this point.
A perfect storm waiting to happen with the stock market of major economies like US, Japan, Europe, and most recently China reaching for new highs. The breakout of China stock market certainly doesn't look healthy at all. Money will find its way where returns are the best, when there's nothing else to invest in the real economy during a slowdown. Its a game of...
The yellow line show us a nice floor to TYX for bounce... IM NOT SEEING RATES GOING UP, Im just think that in the next weeks rates will bounce from a short term perspective... Then yes, we will break the yellow line and I think that we are going to see new lows (below 2%)
This chart studies spread between 30 year and 10 year treasury yield, and its correlation with SPY top. In 2000 and 2007, breakout of this spread marked the top of the market. So can this time be different? Let's wait until it breaks out (if ever) and then we will know.
No definite answer. As shown on the chart, some cases took quite long time with big drops, some took no time and recovered quickly. Bottom line is to assume it should keep going lower and watch signs of reversal on weekly chart closely.
Essentially the descending triangle pattern has repeated 4 times since 1986. And now we have it again. Will the rate break down and go as low as 1%? Time will tell (and best yet, we will know soon enough, as a matter of next couple of months).
One possibility is 30 year rate slides to 2.5% and TLT spikes to $135 in the coming months.