US Treasury Spread - More upsides are expected.
Watch the 30-10 Year Treasury Yield Spread Breakout.
I will not be surprised if yields were creeping on 5% in the next 6 months. Trigger should be obvious. Please check out attached link
The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's...
This chart compares the real yield of long term Treasuries (top) to gold in USD (bottom). The real yield is the investor in long term Tresuries expects to receive after allowing for inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation betweeen real rates and the price of gold over time. Research...
I just was surfing charts and wanted to point this out, as the main theme from the media and analysts is that yields are going up. Period. I agree in that I think rates will be higher if measured in years or decades, but shorter term, they are at stiff resistance. This monthly chart going back to the mid 1960's has a very clear downward trend line that we...
30 year represents long term growth expectations, the 10 year has already broken out as linked below. This down trend is not as clean of a break as that one and will need a continuation after today's test the of February highs. 10s 2s spread hit ~39bps recently now at 49bps. If we get a confirmation the first target is 3.74 as a measured move which happens...
Watch this immense gap between the 5 y treasuries and the thirty years bonds. It will close sooner or later and I don´t expect the 5-y to fall or not far enough to close it. We´ll see probably a fast rise of yields in the 30- y bonds and this will cause much losses to the investors who are not aware of this. Sure, the indicators are signalling a correction in the...
Real estate broke through the 50 MA and with the rising interest rates and the central banks starting to sell their MBS then this market will plummet soon.
Is the 40-year bond bull market coming to an end? 1)If rates rise, what is traditional wisdom saying about bond prices? 2)18-years going down in the chart, but I bet you one thing: that bond (30yr) was 15% in 1982; do some research. 3)Another Trend 101 comment: What happens when prices close and open above its 50-EMA? I am positive you DO know the answer.
It looks like the Bond market hasn't priced in growth or we're going to see a nasty reversion trade in the materials sector and a bond pop. The Copper / Gold pair is a great proxy for inflation due to the divergent properties of the 2 metals. Copper is purely an industrial metal and a proxy for inflationary growth so the 10yr reacts correspondingly. Gold, on...
Overall trend is bullish, but a correction from overbought to 40 week MA is very likely. Note both MACD and RSI are facing long term resistance. Might be a good 2 to 4 months of window for global stocks, commodities and precious metal, before the bullish trend resumes (if it can).
Bond rate has been rising for the past 3 months and now it is approaching the upper resistance channel. It can break out, or back down from here.
Short Treasuries, chart self explanatory
Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons. Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)- 1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative 2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued 3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...
If the long term support broke, the rate may fall very fast very deep like in 2008. So the coming August should be interesting (and critical). So I think we need hedge that possibility somehow.
TYX has been falling and now is right on support. RSI is in oversold area. I will not be surprised if it start to bounce from here to 2.5 level. That will be a bad case for long bond like TLT.