Watch the cross here. Note the extremely close match to the overall stock market, and how this LEADS recessions. This data has a few small false signals going back to the 60's, but it has properly led every recession regardless of that fact. If you combine this signal with something simple like yield curve inversion, you would get one of the easiest and best...
Unemployment data is clearly one of if not the most important data sets when it comes to predicting a recession. With unemployment at very long term lows, when does this break, and what happens when it does? For me, I watch exponential moving average crossovers in unemployment data. Initial claims works if you smooth it out (it's a high frequency data series)....
When unemployment rate crosses 12 month ma signals long term trend change in SP500. Rate just crossed to upside, expect multi year SP500 down trend to begin.
Next month's unemployment rate will determine if the MACD crosses and if we could potentially enter into a recession