USDRUB - Roadmap Update - 26.03.2026Update of the related idea from 25.01.2026
First part worked out perfectly.
It needs a little redrawing.
Latest notes from the previous idea:
Oil and gas companies focused on exports have significant foreign currency revenue.
At the same time, they pay corporate income tax (rate 25% from 2025, previously 20%).
The base is taxable profit under RAS (revenue minus expenses, including MET as costs).
Declaration — new form from 2026 (Federal Tax Service Order).
For the year — until March 25 of the following year (for 2025 — until 25.03.2026).
Reporting periods: quarterly (by the 25th after the quarter) or monthly (if they pay advances based on actual profit — by the 25th of the following month).
Also, the weakening of the ruble (growth of the dollar/euro exchange rate) increases ruble revenue from exports → taxable profit grows.
In the 2025 reporting, the strengthening of the ruble (the ruble rose against the dollar by ~20–25%) led to positive exchange rate differences, which helped to show profit under RAS (a decrease in the ruble amount of foreign currency debt reduced expenses).
In short, when Sechin and Miller submitted their reports, after the 20th there is no point in keeping the currency rate strong.
A weak ruble is beneficial for hydrocarbon exports.
A strong ruble is beneficial for reporting.
Will you say “coincidence”? Possibly. But our goal as traders is to look for recurring “coincidences” in order to make money.
Technically, I redrew it a bit. I am not expecting a fall.
The goal of our oligarchs is to maximize earnings on exports.
High oil prices will push towards ruble weakening.
The conflict with Iran contributes to this.
The correction worked out at 61.8% as per the ascending trend.
Extension target — 91.1187
Possible correction to 86.22 (as in a strong trend)
Possible weakening to 95 rubles.
After the first of April, FNB statistics will be released.
We are also monitoring the development of the conflict in Iran. USDRUB — Current Thoughts — 01/25/2026 — What's Next?Good day, friends.
Today we'll analyze the USDRUB pair and try to predict where the ruble is heading.
Obviously, the exchange rate is currently under manual control, but still.
Let's start with the big picture
We can observe that the price is at a key historical level — roughly the same level as before the conflict began.
The second level of interest lies in key accumulation zones. In this zone, we can expect potential consolidation if the regulator continues pumping the market with foreign currency.
Now, let's zoom in — the price is being pushed toward a key level.
Why is that?
Let's look at the news. The main points:
CMASF (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting) — an analytical center close to the Russian government — warns of a high probability of a banking crisis in the second half of 2026 and a possible recession by October 2026 (due to loan servicing problems among households and businesses, as well as rising delinquencies).
NWF (National Wealth Fund)
The Fund is injecting one trillion rubles into state banks following warnings about an impending banking crisis.
Information about NWF injections into state banks fully corresponds to official data from Russia's Ministry of Finance, published on January 20, 2026.
NWF Injections into State Banks:
• VEB.RF — 1,319.0 billion RUB (deposits and subordinated deposits)
• VTB — 293.2 billion RUB (subordinated deposits)
• Gazprombank — 204.1 billion RUB (subordinated deposits)
• Sberbank — 94.2 billion RUB (subordinated deposit)
• Sovcombank — 29.6 billion RUB (subordinated deposit)
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that executives of Russia's largest banks discussed the possibility of seeking government support due to rising bad loans.
But the devil is in the details, and the name of that detail is — the Central Bank's Fiscal Rule.
What It Is and How It Works
The CBR Fiscal Rule is a mechanism that directly links government spending (including from the NWF) to the exchange rate through automatic liquidity sterilization.
Simplified scheme:
When the Ministry of Finance spends NWF money to support banks, it pumps rubles into the economy.
This creates excess liquidity, which can cause inflation and weaken the ruble.
The Central Bank sells foreign currency from its reserves on the domestic market to absorb excess rubles and ease pressure on the exchange rate.
Simultaneously, the CBR could raise interest rates (making credit more expensive) to sterilize excess liquidity.
💥 Why the Fiscal Rule Is Currently Working Against the Ruble
Problem #1: Depletion of Foreign Currency Reserves
In January 2026, the CBR sharply increased currency sales — by 17.42 billion rubles daily. This is twice as much as at the end of 2025.
The paradox: The more the NWF spends on bank support, the faster the CBR is forced to dump currency to prevent inflation. But currency reserves are finite — according to the data above, the liquid portion of the NWF has shrunk to 4.08 trillion rubles (~1.9% of GDP).
Problem #2: The Cost of Money Trap
• CBR sells currency → USD supply increases → Weakens ruble ↓ • CBR raises rates → Attracts investment → Strengthens ruble ↑ • MinFin spends NWF → Pumps rubles into economy → Weakens ruble ↓
Problem #3: Loss of Rate Maneuverability
Currently, the CBR is in a contradictory position: • Upward pressure on rates: NWF spending generates excess rubles and inflationary pressure, requiring higher rates. • Downward pressure on rates: Banks are in crisis and need lower rates for debt servicing.
Expected trajectory: The CBR plans to reduce the average key rate from the current ~19% to 13% in 2026.
When rates start to decline, this will directly undermine the attractiveness of ruble-denominated assets for foreign investors, creating additional pressure on the currency.
Current Situation (January 2026)
The Ministry of Finance is actively increasing currency sales under the fiscal rule:
• In January–early February, the volume of gold and currency sales will increase.
• This has led to temporary ruble strengthening below 78 RUB/USD.
• However, this is a short-term effect.
🎯 Conclusions on the Fiscal Rule's Impact on USD/RUB
Final assessment: The fiscal rule in this context is not a panacea but a delaying mechanism. It buys time but simultaneously accumulates risks through NWF depletion. If the banking crisis hits (H2 2026) and even larger injections are needed, the system could quickly collapse, causing sharp ruble depreciation.
📊 Current NWF Liquidity Level (as of January 1, 2026)
NWF liquid assets totaled:
• 4.085 trillion rubles or 52.2 billion USD
• This is ~1.9% of GDP (for comparison: at the beginning of 2024, it was ~7% of GDP)
NWF Structure (end of December 2025):
• Total volume: 13.42 trillion rubles (6.2% of GDP)
• Liquid portion: 4.08 trillion rubles (30% of total)
• Illiquid portion: 9.34 trillion rubles (stocks, gold, real estate)
Depletion Rate: Critically High
Over one year (2025), the liquid portion decreased by approximately 1.5–2 trillion rubles due to:
Injections into state banks: 1.02 trillion rubles
Budget deficit financing: unofficially another ~0.5–0.7 trillion rubles
Currency revaluation losses: foreign currency depreciates when the ruble weakens
The currency position is particularly vulnerable: • Chinese yuan reserves fell to 209.15 billion yuan — the lowest since the fund's creation. • This indicates maximum currency sales to support the ruble exchange rate.
🚨 Budget Pressure in 2026
Planned budget deficit: 3.8 trillion rubles
Officially approved by the State Duma:
• Revenue: 40.3 trillion rubles
• Expenditure: 44 trillion rubles
• Deficit: 3.8 trillion rubles (1.8% of GDP)
• From NWF: only 38.5 billion rubles (officially)
The NWF was created as a buffer for rainy days, but it is currently being spent to maintain the current economy. This means there is no safety cushion, and the first serious shock (banking crisis, oil price collapse, new sanctions) will lead to an uncontrolled crisis in late 2026 – early 2027.
Some may beat their chest and claim that sanctions don't work, but...
The treasury is running dry, milord.
⏰ Depletion Forecast: 3 Scenarios (assuming current sanctions persist)
Scenario 1: BASELINE (1.5–2 trillion RUB/year spending from NWF)
At the 2025 pace:
• Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion RUB — Current state
• Jan 1, 2027 — 2.0–2.5 trillion RUB — Critical level
• Jan 1, 2028 — 0.5–1.0 trillion RUB — Rock bottom
Scenario 2: ACCELERATED (2.5–3 trillion RUB/year spending)
This scenario develops if:
• The banking crisis starts earlier (Q2 2026 instead of H2 2026)
• Bank injections increase from 1.02 trillion to 2+ trillion rubles per year
• The budget deficit expands (due to military operations, sanctions, revenue decline)
Timeline:
• Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion RUB
• Jul 1, 2026 — 2.5–2.8 trillion RUB — Crisis begins
• Jan 1, 2027 — 1.5–1.8 trillion RUB — Panic begins
• Jul 1, 2027 — ~0 trillion RUB
Scenario 3: OPTIMISTIC (replenishment from oil & gas revenues)
Conditions:
• Brent oil price stable at 70–72 USD/barrel
• IMF forecasts 62.13 USD/barrel average for 2026
• Current prices: 66–70 USD/barrel
Calculation:
If oil holds at 70 USD/barrel, annual oil & gas revenues will be ~10–10.5 trillion rubles. With planned NWF spending of 38.5 billion rubles (per the official 2026 budget), the fund:
• Will be replenished by approximately 1–2 trillion RUB per year
• Depletion will be postponed by 5–7 years
(However, news about the seizure of the shadow fleet doesn't add much optimism here.)
📈 Key Monitoring Checkpoints
• Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion — Current state
• Apr 1, 2026 — 3.2–3.5 trillion — Q1: budget & bank support
• Jul 1, 2026 — 2.5–2.8 trillion — Possible crisis onset
• Oct 1, 2026 — 1.8–2.2 trillion — Panic begins (new injections)
💥 What Happens When the NWF Is Depleted
Short-term effect (1–3 months before depletion):
Markets will panic:
• Speculation on ruble weakening → massive capital outflow
• Accelerating inflation → CBR forced to raise rates despite the crisis
• Chaos in the currency market — CBR may introduce exchange controls
Scenarios (from most to least likely):
Introduction of currency controls
Sharp ruble depreciation (110–130 RUB/USD)
Depositor panic, bank runs
Bank defaults (payment failures)
Devaluation, restructuring
Related Conclusion
To negotiate sanctions relief in the context of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, there are approximately 3 years left.
Otherwise, things will get very tough.
To cover the budget deficit, our government officials, out of love for the people and economic necessity, will invent even more taxes and fees. The one-party system will easily pass any law.
Raising the retirement age, pension points, VAT increases — these are just flowers.
📉 Forecast Thoughts
If the CBR continues currency sales — ruble strengthening to 73 RUB.
A spike down to 72 is possible.
Keep in mind that they need to push the rate to a level where there's enough buffer when rates are cut.
Consolidation is possible amid Q1 injections, followed by expected growth.
First growth target: 80.70
Second target: 87–90
Possible scenario breaker: Progress in negotiations.
On positive news with official confirmation, the ruble could strengthen sharply (which isn't great for business, but that's another story).
What do you think?
With Respect to Everyone, Your #SinnSeed [USD\RUB] Enter email subjectHi Ivan, good day again.
I’ve had a look at your idea regarding the ruble. I'm afraid you still didn’t quite catch my sense of humor.
And unfortunately, you haven’t fully absorbed the program either.
But hey—you’re doing well! Your efforts show. And your ideas aren't the worst ones I’ve seen on LLC "Trading View". I can say that for sure. I've seen some crazy forecasts there.
You’ve already used a kind of Elliott approach and added RSI. I’m glad you picked that up quickly.
Now, back to the critique - there’s a lack of innovation, some fresh perspective, and generally, a bit more realism is needed.
I get that on TW everyone copies each other. But you need to develop new methods and theory, which means you need to form a clearer vision.
Ivan, drop by my office. I’ll help you, maybe we can brainstorm together.
I sketched a rough draft of an idea. I want to tell you about it-don’t get scared, just take a look at the attachment.
Subject: "Forming Long-Term Forecasts on Global Timeframes Using Transparent Overlay Method."
Check out the screenshots - you’ll see that by overlaying semi-transparent bars at the 1M level, we can estimate the chart’s behavior on 3M, 6M, and 12M timeframes.
It helps assess the realism of the forecast and the fluctuation levels within a given range.
Like, surely you understand that we’re unlikely to see seven consecutive red 3M candles at this stage. When building long-term forecasts, that sort of thing matters—even if no one seems to care.
Anyway, we’ll talk about it in person. Call me if anything.
Also—do you by any chance know how Oleg’s doing? I haven’t heard from him in a while. Has he at least figured out how to switch to 3M, 6M, and yearly candles yet?
Come together, both of you. I’ll go over everything again.
By the way, could you help me reinstall Outlook? For some reason all my settings vanished, the shortcut’s gone, and I can’t find any contacts. Or maybe bring over a tech person - maybe that’s why I’m not getting any emails.
Best regards,
Riva Trick
The Ruble's Unlikely Triumph: What's Driving It?The early months of 2025 have seen the Russian Ruble emerge as the world's top-performing currency, achieving a significant appreciation against the US dollar. This unexpected rally is largely attributed to robust domestic economic measures. Faced with persistent inflation exceeding 10%, the Central Bank of Russia implemented a stringent monetary policy, raising the key interest rate to a high of 21%. This aggressive stance not only aims to curb price growth but also makes the Ruble highly attractive to foreign investors seeking elevated yields through carry trade strategies, thereby increasing demand for the currency. Furthermore, a healthy trade surplus, marked by increased exporter conversion of foreign earnings, has bolstered the Ruble's supply-demand dynamics.
Beyond internal economics, shifting geopolitical perceptions have played a vital role. Growing market anticipation of a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict has notably reduced the perceived political risk associated with Russian assets. This improved sentiment encourages some international investors to return cautiously to Russian markets. Concurrently, a weakening trend in the US dollar, influenced by evolving US trade policies, has amplified the Ruble's relative strength on the global stage.
Strategically, Russia's ongoing efforts to decrease its reliance on the US dollar are also providing underlying support for the Ruble. Initiatives promoting trade settlements in national currencies, such as recent agreements enabling Ruble payments with Cuba, reflect a long-term pivot towards establishing alternative financial channels. However, this Ruble strength presents challenges, particularly for the state budget heavily dependent on converting dollar-denominated oil revenues. A stronger Ruble yields fewer domestic funds, potentially straining finances, especially amidst volatile global oil prices. The balancing act between maintaining high rates to control inflation and mitigating their impact on domestic credit and investment remains a critical consideration for policymakers. Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order.
At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions.
Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems.
As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order. Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%.
Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement. USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat.
The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost.
As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200).
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high.
Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall.
The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system.
The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts.
Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped.
Where do you put it but on the exchange?
Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value.
“Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank.
The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year.
Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected.
For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK.
Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.
Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022.
There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions.
Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia.
In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target:
This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it.
At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
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