McDonald's slides to 4-year low as CEO warns inflation risksMCD | 4H Technical Analysis — Sep 25, 2026
McDonald's is extending a brutal decline after yesterday's Investor Day sent the stock down nearly 5%, with today adding another 0.5% to push shares to their lowest level in four years. The trigger was a sharp deceleration in US same-store sales growth, which came in at just 0.8% for the most recent quarter, alongside CEO Chris Kempczinski telling CNBC that the company needs to stop framing the current environment as difficult and start treating it as
Usindices
Wells Fargo downgraded Netflx target price to 57.00NFLX | 4H Technical Analysis — Sep 21, 2026
Netflix is sliding hard after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from equal weight to underweight and slashed its price target from 80 to 57 dollars. The bank cited a worrying trend in subscriber engagement, warning that the platform's slate of major original series has been thin and that the impact is now showing up in the numbers. Wells Fargo specifically forecasts first half 2026 viewership to fall 8% versus the same period last year, framing the co
Walmart's weakest same-store sales in six years trigger 9% dropWMT | 4H Technical Analysis — Aug 24, 2026
Walmart reported Q2 with total revenue up 5.9% YoY, e-commerce growing 23%, and global advertising revenue up 38%, with digital and new business segments carrying the quarter. However, US same-store sales grew only 2.6%, the weakest quarterly comp in six years and below both the prior quarter's 4.1% and the 3.8% consensus. CFO John David Rainey attributed part of the miss to pharmacy segment headwinds from federal drug pricing policy changes, noting t
Will US Reversals Hold?As of last week's close, all major US indices completed their weekly movements, and all of them indicated a reversal pattern.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all formed a bearish engulfing pattern, while the Dow Jones formed an inverted hammer.
So, is a correction coming?
Based on these technical studies, a correction appears to be developing.
We will discuss how to manage these risks and whether this correction will be shallow or deep.
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Options
Cod
Home Depot reaffirms guidance despite housing headwindsHD | 4H Technical Analysis — May 20, 2026
Home Depot beat Q1 estimates on both revenue and earnings, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite rising oil prices, weakening consumer confidence, and a sluggish housing market. However, same-store sales grew only 0.6% YoY, while transactions declined 1.3%, suggesting that inflation-driven price increases are masking underlying volume weakness. CFO McPhail acknowledged that homeowners remain financially resilient relative to other consumer segm
Semiconductor-led rally drives S&P 500 channel breakoutUS500 | 4H Technical Analysis — Apr 27, 2026
A broad-based rally in semiconductor stocks, fueled by strong earnings beats and renewed AI infrastructure demand, has provided the catalyst for a sharp risk-on rotation, lifting the S&P 500 index out of its multi-month downtrend. The rotation into big tech and chip names has driven index-level momentum in a way that pure macro relief alone could not.
The US500 has broken decisively out of a well-defined descending channel that contained price acti
Will stagflation fears deepen the selloff in US indices?
US indices fell for the week as stagflation fears deepened on persistent geopolitical risks and surging oil prices, with growing private-credit stress adding further pressure.
Private-credit redemption concerns have spread from Blue Owl and Blackstone to Morgan Stanley (MS) and JPMorgan (JPM). MS's NorthHaven fund received redemption requests of 10.9% of 1Q assets but held to its 5% cap to avoid distressed asset sales. The Financial Times reported that JPM had written down collateral values o
S&P500 fell on oil-driven inflation fears and weaker labor data
US equities weakened over the week as Middle East tensions and the resulting surge in oil prices revived inflation concerns. The downturn was compounded by slowing Feb employment and persistent anxiety around private credit markets.
Airline stocks also fell sharply as surging oil prices pushed jet fuel costs higher. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that elevated oil prices could significantly impact first-quarter earnings.
JPMorgan (JPM) noted that US equities have held up relatively w
Dow Jones [US30] heading to bullish POIThe US indices, which have been relatively bearish for some time, could be headed for a pivotal bullish momentum. We highlight the Dow Jones in particular.
Technicals:
1) The Dow Jones is heading towards a bullish 62% to 79% daily retracement zone.
2) Inside that zone (the blue area) lays a daily fvg which is an area where we could take a LowerTF long if bullish confluences align.
Fundamentals:
3) We await Nonfarm tomorrow, amongst other major US economic news.
Opportunities may be foun
US500 retreated on a hawkish Fed shift and a tech-sector fall
September nonfarm payrolls rose by 119k (cons. 51k), but August was sharply revised down to -4k from 22k, while continuing jobless claims increased by 28k from the prior week. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% (prev. 4.3%, cons. 4.3%), the highest in four years, further weighing on sentiment.
Fed commentary added to the pressure. Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that, despite signs of labor-market cooling, inflation remains elevated. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also cautioned that
AI-bubble fears dragged USTEC lower.
Alphabet (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai added to the cautious mood, noting that the current AI boom shows signs of irrationality and warning that no company would be immune if the bubble bursts.
Meanwhile, ADP data showed private-sector jobs falling by roughly 2.5k per week over the four weeks to Nov 1, fueling worries about a labor-market slowdown. Fed Governor Waller reiterated his support for a December rate cut, citing ongoing softness and stagnation in the labor market.
This week’s NFP relea
US500 slipped on AI-bubble fears and the Hawkish Fed
Stocks weakened last week as the Fed’s revived hawkish tone and mounting concerns over stretched AI valuations outweighed strong earnings from major AI names.
Despite upbeat 3Q results, fears of an AI bubble continued to build. AMD CEO Su highlighted insatiable demand for AI chips, projecting the data-center market to reach 1tln USD by 2030 and forecasting an average annual growth rate of 35% for AMD over the next five years.
Morgan Stanley warned of an impending power shortage within a yea
The S&P500 paused on AI valuation concerns and trade fears
The US equity rally, driven by optimism over AI momentum, Fed rate-cut expectations, and solid consumer data, lost steam after President Trump’s combative remarks toward China. Delta Air Lines beat 3Q estimates with profit up 4.1% YoY and EPS at 1.71 USD, while Costco’s (COST) Sep sales rose 8% YoY, underscoring resilient US consumption. However, Trump’s threat of steep tariff hikes triggered the S&P; 500’s sharpest one-day drop in three months.
US500 extended its sharp decline, briefly te
Despite AI valuation pressures, US500 outlook remains positive.
Robust US data tempered Fed rate-cut bets, dragging equities lower for a third day, though investors expect the pullback to be short-lived. Nvidia’s (NVDA) 100 bln USD investment in OpenAI has raised questions over vendor financing risks, deepening worries over elevated valuations. Still, institutions expect US equities to hold a tactical bullish stance. JPMorgan (JPM) projected that while a government shutdown and fragile sentiment may trigger midweek weakness, solid economic growth, a resili
US30 hits new all-time high amid robust AI fever
US equities rallied to fresh record highs, fueled by the Fed’s rate cut, resilient US economic data, and optimism over progress in US-China trade negotiations. Ongoing enthusiasm for AI also boosted technology stocks.
Nvidia (NVDA) drove the strongest market reaction after announcing a \$5 bln purchase of more than 4% of Intel (INTC). Sentiment was further buoyed by reports that Chinese regulators halted their antitrust probe into Google (GOOGL), ending a long-running investigation into Androi
Nasdaq100, DJIA & S&P500 - Quick technical analysisThe top three US indices are near their all-time highs. Will we see new all-time highs?
Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:US100
MARKETSCOM:US30
MARKETSCOM:US500
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Rate-cut optimism fueled risk-on mood, lifting US equities
July CPI showed little inflationary impact from tariffs, amplifying expectations for a September Fed cut. Optimism also returned for small-cap firms, previously seen as most vulnerable to tariff pressures. Headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY in July, 0.1% lower than a year earlier, with a 1.1% MoM drop in energy prices contributing to the overall decline.
BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder noted that shelter costs, the largest CPI component, slowed to their lowest since 2021, significantly boosting the odds of
Russell 2000 - C wave to complete correction?I have been bearish on the Russell for a long time. nothing has changed. the wave count is getting clearer... at least for now.
price action as of late has been like watching paint dry on the wall, still waiting for a catalyst... coming soon, i believe.
this count would only be invalidated with a sustained break above resistance zone.
**minor change from my previous charts - i have simplified the wave counts from a (WXYZ) to (ABC).
Russell 2000 - Sell till late May & Buy in Early June?
Wave (ii) is still in progress. Slight update to the primary wave count from the previous one below.
200 & 100 SMA's are sloping firmly to the downside therefore I will continue to keep selling at technical levels. Late May or early June would be a good time to go long...
Support levels are shown in green.
Russell 2000 - one more drop to complete the correction?Looking for the double zig zag correction to complete (Y) leg in the blue zone. Will be looking for five waves to the downside for the target.
Updated the wave count from my previous chart below...
This drop from the 25th November 2024 to the expected target zone would be more or less similar to the Covid drop in terms of percentage.
Russell 2000 - time to Buy pullbacks...Shorts were good while it lasted... looks like a good time to buy pullbacks.
It would be wise to wait for a clear 3 wave correction though.
Elliot Wave Analysis shows a larger degree wave IV was completed in March 2020.
Since then, the Russell 2000 has been nesting within a bullish rectangle chart pattern, possibly working its way up to the larger degree wave V.
Seasonality Chart shows a bullish April with a possible correction in May.
Nevertheless, I will not commit to long trades till the
The Nasdaq 100 nears a big breaking pointThe Nasdaq 100 has continued declining, attempting to find some support after breaking below the August 2024 lows on 4 April. The next obvious support levels lie around the late 2021 and 2022 highs, which, for now at least, are offering some stability. It would not be surprising to see the index test that region during the trading session.
However, a break below support at 16,700 could be a negative signal for the Nasdaq, suggesting the index may head even lower. The next level of technical sup
S&P500 - Possible Short Term Top in. OANDA:SPX500USD is looking like its in the end of the move higher. Thursday/Friday were very slow after the early week rally even with NFPs giving things a spike.
now we look for Monday to give us some clues for the next move.
Option 1 - We get a move down to 5320 before one more high up to 5400 area.
Option 2 - The top is in on this run from the April low and we get a deeper PB down towards 5200 followed by another ATH around 5500.
Option 3 - But less likely, it holds Fridays lows and we ge
DOW JONES - Completed Pattern. OANDA:US30USD While the OANDA:SPX500USD & OANDA:NAS100USD have been hitting new highs the DOW has struggled and has completed a Double ABCD Gartley pattern on friday and sold off into the close.
Setting up potential downside targets of 38300, 37800 & to complete the bigger pattern @ around 37k.
If we start heading lower on Monday then that could put the wheels in motion for the bigger correction.
Big data out mid week will send it one way or the other.
Enjoy the week.
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