Hi folks! The market seems untradeable right now imo - we are in no mans land in terms of technicals (trends, horisontal support/resistance, MACD/RSI etc.) I still believe we will go way further down in the long term, and we have a lot of both immediate and longer term risks in the market. However, a crash/big correction almost always happen over a very long...
Hi folks! A fourth real test of the long-term trend line from 2020 right now - in what seems to yet another red day for all financial markets around the globe. Technically, BTC actually looks very tempting in isolation, but almost every stock index looks terrible. I will be shorting for 37k at least if the trend line breaks, and fill up my longs on a New bounce...
Hi folks! Just a short take on the VIX: During the last weeks, we have seen some volatility, but the VIX has barely moved (in VIX-scale, that is). This is not a good sign for the market - as the market usually do the unexpected thing. The Fear and Gread index is also neutral, so the market is not afraid at all of a further dump. Every single period of...
Hi folks! Not much to say - extremely critical support at apx. 41.3k - along the long term trend line since 2020. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are not yet on their daily supports, so this CAN be ugly, but we might also have a crazy bounce - just watch the market closely today (and potentially during the week if we end up in a narrow consolidation pattern in a couple...
Hi folks! The market just feels untradeable at the moment - there has been significant correlation between BTCUSDT and the stock market in the last couple of months, and that generally holds in periods of fear. Now, the stock market itself seems untradeable ATM (although the overall picture seems bearish): - Intraday Bounce in american stocks during friday. -...
Hi folks! As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only: All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!). Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of...
Hi folks! As I stated in my last two posts about BTCUSDT (see linked), I bought at the long-term trend line (purple), as we saw buy signals in the MACD, RSI (not shown), Bollinger and the Money Flow Index. However, the volume was still very low on the bounce and the pullback larger than expected - in addition to the apparent bull trap in the stock indexes...
Hi folks! I really think that the bullish trend is broken and that the market will soon realize that the pricing is built on easy money and Bigger Fool bets very soon - tight movie theatre door etc etc. The end of a market cycle is always a fool's game - the smart money is gone and only those in denial are left trading for the great honor of holding the bags. I...
Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with...
vixy failed to pullback. Full short Volatility will die next days.
Target for the ratio are 0.8 and 0.5 The idea is vix is cheap relative to the real cpi outcome and russian risk coming, Sell corporate bonds too.
#stonks & #cryptocrash The filthiest markets in the history of mankind. Echochamber Ponzi Poggers #storytelling their own crypto TO TAKE FEES FROM. @dogefather & Jack Dorsey and Zuck. Libra coin anyone?????? Twitter Facebook I mean meta TikTok Simpcoin Tip Tip Crypto flop. Over 14K cryptos to choose from now. What a joke. Elon can't even keep SPACEX...
Hi folks! See my linked posts for more information regarding the macro state - I am just mentioning the arguments in bulletts it here: - The Chinese property crisis in getting worse by the minute - although mainstream media does not care. - Margin Debt in U.S. accounts is almost 1 Trillion (apx. 4% of GDP !!!!) - Real income down over 2% so far in 2021 due to...
Hi folks! Please see my linked post for a much more thorough argumentation for my positions - both technical and (the much more important) fundamental ones. An update on the current since my last post: - SPY still snuggling on the resistance that is the broken trendline from march/april 2020. - The Fear and Greed index just turned "extremely bullish"...
Hi folks! See my Previous post for more information - in short, I believe it is really about time to start hedging long exposure to the broad U.S. Stock market. T.A. Arguments: - SPY tested both the massive broken trend line from march 2020 yesterday and got rejected. - This Coincided with a rejection off the upper 1D Bollinger Bands. - The insane long term RSI...
Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since...
Breaking our last low is just a game changer for a while we will see a new ATH if we do that we stand at it to the point therefore this move of VIX is just another validation for this Bullish move and more to come if VIX stays here below 50d MA .
Hi folks! First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature: I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL...