Sorry to leave you guys hangin! Felt like my UVXY shitposting was ultimately doing more harm than good. I was thinking far to linearly with my predictions and have simplified my buy in and cash out ranges. Gonna trust my indicators and RSI more too in conjunction with this. If you were following along the past couple months while I was hammering this thing out...
I see these a lot in crypto charts. Look for a steep and rapid ascent in volatility with a sharp point and fast breakdown after the tip is formed. In simple language, short the market and buy the dollar thru the end of November, and anticipate a steep drop in volatility into December.
That was a fast drop right back to the major support trend line. Will it drop lower or rally off?
$VVIX is underappreciated leading indicator of volatility. The fact $VVIX is down today while $VIX is elevated supports thesis $VIX dies after election...
VVIX is the mother of volatility. It's already elevated, the initial shock and awe stage is done. SPX has to go down from here (which equates to more shock, awe and disbelief) for VVIX to rise substantially and for VIX futures & VIX options to behave accordingly. Expecting a pullback (similar to my last $VIX chart) before rocketing much higher (March levels)....
Last updates after yesterday's action. Really likes to respect those trend lines I have.
Odds still in favor of a big downward movement but timing is the tricky part. Between election uncertainty and COVID 19 Wave 2 a lot of sht could go down soon and quick!
📌 Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. ...
I should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise...
VXX still bouncing off that support line. Close up Larger view for trend line origins
The leveraged nature makes the wedge particularly thin... just a matter of time!
Still hang around the S/R level. This were I got the S/R levels from.
VXX hang in there and staying right on the support level. MACD starting to move from green to red, which means a drop may be coming. I am still have this gut feeling that it wants to drop to the bottom of the trading channel before we see it make a big rally. Just in case you care where my trend lines originate from. Not a good view for seeing details. Getting...
Update after Tuesday's trading. It may have found a bottom. Be interesting to see if it is ready to break out. Close up