VXN at the 4 hour. I realized what I did wrong. It's been so long since I updated the VXN that I forgot to add in another channel line below. Whoops. Well, this means that either a volatility jump (more like a bunny hop) will either be within the next two days... That's if the VXN can reclaim that first support. If the first support is not reclaimed, then the...
Last time we got a volatility spike we had this signal sequence: June 3rd: LL VVIX June 5th: Small Buy VVIX, LL UVXY/VIX/VXN (4 x LL, 1 x SB) June 9th: SB VXN, Large Buy VVIX, SB VIX (4 x LL, 2 x SB, 1 x LB - enough signals at all levels, possible entry confirm) June 10th: SB UVXY (add'l confirm) June 11th: LB UVXY (your money is probably good) June 12th: HH...
The VXN right now is priming up for a small jump. The projected jump should be within the next 2 days. Maybe Thursday. That said, if it cannot retake that support above, then the projected jump may be delayed until next week. It's why I have multiple support lines. The VXN acts as my "hourglass" of how long do I have before I exit my long positions. High...
VXN at the 4 hour view. It's been a while since I've done the VXN. It's no coincidence that when the VXN was sitting on supports, then NQ was primed for a pullback. From where the wedge is now and where the supports are, the projected volatility jump for the VXN is around August 17-19. If this sounds familiar, it's the same projected date range for the VIX and...
This is the NQ's VIX (VXN) at the 4 hour view. The VXN is still trapped in its wedge and finally moving on to the lower supports. That said, the VXN is also playing the volatility dance. It's making several small volatility jumps to build up for a bigger one. With the VVIX closing above 105, the VXN and VIX are saying that they're not done quite yet. The...
This is the VXN at the 4 hour. The VXN's minor support is still holding much stronger than I anticipated. I was expecting the second support. We are nearing the end of this wedge. The VXN is warning that a pullback may be imminent in the NQ. The NQ might get one last pre-earnings hype bounce. However, the VXN is providing clues that a pullback will happen...
VXN at the 4 hour view. The VXN was stopped due to high liquidity in the markets right now. Unlike the VIX, I do not expect the VXN to reach flag support (dashed green line) any time soon. NQ has reached a top from July 13th. How long will this top last? Most likely for the rest of the summer. Will it be THE top? I don't know. There are so many calls in the NQ...
This is the VXN at the 4 hour view. Okay. I was wrong. I thought the volatility run would be early next week. The VXN tested support early this morning and then found that support. It created a double bottom pattern and started running. It's fighting against the high liquidity. Personally, I am happy that volatility is coming back. Chaos and panic to a group of...
As I mentioned in my VIX post, liquidity is high. There is so much available cash now that it's drowning volatility runs. It sucks because volatility provides opportunities. Fear provides discounts on stocks and ETFs. Chaos in the market brings more opportunities. Judging by the price action, the VXN is about to test support again. Volatility will most likely be...
This is the VXN at the 4 hour. The VXN found support once again in that green zone of mine. It shouldn't be that big of a surprise. The P/C ratio for the NQ was at 0.37 this morning. That means there were so many calls from small traders that it was exhausting the supply of buyers. That aggravated the VXN at first. When the supply of buyers ran out, the...
NQ's VIX (VXN) closed higher today. Usually, if the NQ goes up, then VXN goes down. That's the usual method. The other reason why a VIX would rise is because there are SO many calls by retail traders at a lightning fast rate. The VXN would recognize this as a buying climax. The NQ entered into a pre-earnings hype rally. This seems like a good set up for a decent...
This is the VXN at the 4 hour. It seems that the NQ is getting ready for a move. I am not expecting the first support to hold for very long. However, if the VXN bounces off the second or third support, then the NQ may be getting the pullback that's been long overdue. Hence, I said pullback and not collapse. The VXN provides clues of when it's safe to enter longs...
This is the VXN at the hourly. My VXN channels were a success... so far. You cannot trade the VXN normally. However, you can use the VXN to figure out when the NQ pulls back. When the VXN approaches a major support (bottom 2 green lines), that is the time to exit QQQ/TQQQ. The VXN acts like the VIX. It rises either due to traders ordering too many calls/longs at...
Keep in mind, the higher we go here the more expensive products will be for americans.
This is the VXN at the 4 hour view. This is the volatility index for the NASDAQ. Recently, I discovered that the VIX and VXN are in an angle since February. Knowing where their volatility indices will bounce would help with exiting longs. Remember, VIX and VXN are not purely inverse indices. They also go up when retail traders are buying calls/longs at a...
The VIX measures volatility and option pricing for the S&P 500. The VXN measures volatility and option pricing for the Nasdaq-100. That's what this chart shows. Volatility has been subdued since the Coronavirus first broke out. And now, it's time to watch how long that lasts. It may just keep dropping from here. Volatility dropped at the end of the Dot Com...
I quickly look at the risk potential going into tomorrow markets. I am 98% Cash with a small position in CVX calls. I am also not trading tomorrow. I see lots of potential downside risk.
VXN closed <2 S.D again ~ BB moving downward so it is sign market seeing no tailrisk (SKEW/VIX), however VXN rebounded at extreme in the past. interestingly, price will trade below the top of the bar at least once eventually ~ so watch for more extreme next week