Polkadot: Short-Term Rally Before Potential Drop into Target ZonDOT is currently expected to move toward the high of wave iv in orange, according to our primary scenario. We continue to anticipate that this move will remain below the resistance level at $3.78. Afterward, we are primarily preparing for a wave v sell-off into the orange Target Zone ($1.66 – $0.70). In this range, we expect to see the low of wave in magenta, which should signal a potential long-term trend reversal to the upside. There is still a 30% probability that the correction low has already been completed as wave alt. in magenta. However, this alternative would only be definitively confirmed by a significant breakout above the $3.78 level.
Wave Analysis
UGP: Unlocking 76% Undervaluation UGP: Unlocking 76% Undervaluation – SWOT and Intrinsic Value Deep Dive
Introduction
📊 As of October 24, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP), a diversified Brazilian conglomerate operating in fuel distribution, chemicals, and logistics, is navigating a broader market environment characterized by an oversold rebound amid emerging market volatility. Recent macroeconomic factors, including milder-than-expected U.S. CPI data supporting global equity gains, have contributed to a positive shift in investor sentiment.
In the energy and industrials sectors, dynamics such as stabilizing commodity prices and Brazil's economic recovery post-inflation pressures are influencing performance. Public data from recent filings indicate UGP's resilience, with quarterly revenue growth of 5.3% year-over-year, positioning it for potential stabilization in a dip-driven market. This overview draws from verifiable metrics without endorsing any trading action.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths 💹
UGP demonstrates robust financial health through key metrics. Its latest quarterly earnings growth surged 148.5% year-over-year as of June 30, 2025, reflecting operational efficiency in its core segments like Ipiranga fuel distribution and Ultragaz. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a book value per share of $15.03, significantly above its current market price, indicating asset-backed stability. Revenue growth of 5.3% underscores sustainable expansion, supported by diversified operations across Brazil's infrastructure needs.
Weaknesses ⚠️
High leverage remains a concern, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 102.97%, potentially amplifying risks in interest rate-sensitive environments. Exposure to Brazil's economic fluctuations, including currency volatility, could pressure margins if inflation reaccelerates. Additionally, the trailing twelve months EPS of $0.49, while improved, reflects past underperformance relative to peers in more stable markets.
Opportunities 🚀
UGP's undervalued metrics, such as a P/E ratio of 11.56 and a price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.26, present acquisition appeal for value investors. Opportunities lie in market expansion, particularly through consolidation like the recent Hidrovias integration, enhancing logistics capabilities amid Brazil's infrastructure boom. Analyst projections forecast 3.1% revenue growth for 2025, reaching an average of 137.63 billion BRL, driven by sector tailwinds in energy transition and export growth.
Threats 🛑
Regulatory risks in Brazil's oil and gas sector, including environmental policies and antitrust scrutiny, pose challenges. Competition from global players like Petrobras could erode market share, while geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices add uncertainty. Currency devaluation threats further complicate international debt servicing.
Intrinsic Value Calculation
💰 In value investing, estimating intrinsic value helps assess whether an asset trades below its fundamental worth, incorporating a margin of safety to buffer uncertainties. A balanced approach weights tangible assets and earnings potential. Here, we use a formula: Intrinsic Value = (Book Value per Share × Weight) + (EPS × Growth Multiplier), where the book value weight (e.g., 0.7) emphasizes asset backing, and the growth multiplier (e.g., 12) reflects conservative earnings capitalization based on sector averages.
Using recent data: Book Value per Share = $15.03, Trailing Twelve Months EPS = $0.49. Assume a 5% growth rate inferred from revenue trends (5.3% quarterly yoy), adjusting the multiplier downward for sustainability.
Calculation:
- Book component: $15.03 × 0.7 = $10.521
- Earnings component: $0.49 × 12 = $5.88
- Intrinsic Value ≈ $10.521 + $5.88 = $16.401
Compared to the current price of $3.885, UGP appears undervalued by over 76%, offering a substantial margin of safety (e.g., 30-50% discount recommended by value principles to account for risks like high debt). 📉 Debt flags are notable at 103% D/E, but positive earnings momentum (178% estimated growth for 2025) supports long-term sustainability if leverage is managed. Annotate intrinsic value lines in green on the chart, with current price in red for visual comparison.
Entry Strategy Insights
🔍 Institutional investors often seek bottom-extreme zones periods of oversold conditions based on historical support levels for unleveraged, long-term entries. A dollar-cost averaging (DCA) framework mitigates timing risks by scaling in gradually during dips. For UGP, monitor zones around recent lows (e.g., 52-week range) amid rebound trends, prioritizing fundamentals over short-term noise.
Risk Management
⚠️ Effective risk management emphasizes position sizing at 1-5% of portfolio capital to limit drawdowns. Diversification across sectors reduces exposure to Brazil-specific risks, while long-term holding aligns with UGP's fundamental strength in recurring revenue streams. Monitor sustainability metrics like debt reduction in quarterly filings, and set predefined exit criteria based on deteriorating macros.
Conclusion
This analysis highlights UGP's strengths in earnings growth and asset value, offset by leverage concerns, with opportunities in undervaluation amid sector expansion. The calculated intrinsic value suggests significant upside potential for patient investors, but always verify independently using latest filings and consult professionals.
Elliot Waves on $OTSKY (Otsuka Holdings / Pocari Sweat)Potential 3rd wave beginning for OTC:OTSKY / 4578 (TSEJ).
Idea would be invalidated with a break below ~$22.
Expected confirmed move to be ~$50+.
Watching for a strong upward break above ~$29 to confirm move.
Could come from upcoming earnings results.
Additionally, IBD MarketSurge is showing a Cup & Handle with pivot @ $28.93.
DIA 1H Swing Short Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade
+ short impulse
- resisting bar level below BUI
+ resistance zone
+ 1/2 correction
+ volumed 2Ut-
Bought a put
1 to 2 R/R take profit
1D CounterTrend
"- short balance
+ biggest volume expanding CREEK
+ volumed 2Ut+
+ weak test"
1M CounterTrend
"- long impulse
- neutral zone
+ exhaustion volume?"
1Y CounterTrend
"- long impulse
+ beyond rotation point
- neutral zone"
BNB forms bearish flag after double topBNB is moving in an ascending channel, which could turn into a bear flag at any moment. The chart has already completed a double top pattern. A bear flag pattern has formed locally; recent news about CZ has provided upward momentum, but the movement has remained within the local bearish pattern
Current price: $1,134
Probable movement according to the pattern to the nearest level of $1080 . If the lower channel of the corridor is broken, then with a high probability we can continue the movement to $1000
A speculative breakdown of the bearish scenario is likely if the upper channel is broken at $1225
Important!
This coin is extremely overheated, please be careful with it
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More detailed analysis, additional charts, and key levels to watch are available on our site
EURUSD 2H | SMC + Elliott WaveKeeping it simple 💚
This chart blends Smart Money Concept with Elliott Wave structure to show how institutional zones align with wave corrections.
Currently expecting price to tap the 1.164–1.171 zone (seller’s area) before a possible wave 5 decline toward 1.150.
No signals — pure analysis to educate and share thought process 📚
Stay patient, follow structure, not emotions ⚡
#Forex #EURUSD #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #ForexEducation #PriceAction
4Th wave triangle has ended wave 5 22140 nNYAThe posted is my top wave structure as you can the chart what looks to be a contracting triangle and we have now entered the UPTHRUST . I have a target of 22140 the with of the triangle .But we could see an OVER SHOOT I am waiting to enter PUTS SOON ,Best of trades WAVETIMER
4/USDT Analysis. Long Setup
For this asset, we’ve noticed strong buyer activity, while during the pullback volumes are almost absent, suggesting a momentum-based decline rather than active selling.
Below the current price lies a strong volume zone at $0.106–$0.096 — a bullish reaction from this area could trigger a long setup with an initial target at $0.16.
This publication is not financial advice.
BTC/USDT Analysis. Testing a Key Support Point
Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics trader-analyst, and here’s your daily market review.
Yesterday, Bitcoin fully followed the scenario we outlined earlier. As selling pressure weakened, buyers stepped in, pushing the price toward the strong resistance area with major volume anomalies we mentioned before.
At the moment, expectations are tilted toward short positions — the first test of this zone has already shown a spike in volume followed by an immediate pullback. The buyer’s price action looks weaker, suggesting a higher probability of further decline.
The nearest target is support at $108,700–$107,500, while the main target remains the $105,600–$104,500 zone (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
$108,700–$107,500 (volume zone)
$105,600–$104,500 (volume anomalies)
$97,000–$93,000 (volume zone)
Sell Zones:
$111,800–$113,000 (strong volume anomalies)
$114,400–$115,600 (local volume zone)
$120,900–$124,000 (volume zone)
This publication is not financial advice.
$HYPE (12-HOUR): LONG set-up nearly RIPE after BULL MS changeIf you remember me for always being a GETTEX:HYPE bear, well that is in the past. I was a bear when ELLIOT'S WAVE 5 ended in a spectacular McDONALD'S double top a month ago and my bearishness ended in a flash-crash that tagged all the technical targets, HEAD & SHOULDERS, ELLIOT'S WAVE C lowest target, etc.
All serious long-term leverage has been swept, the recent 2 weeks have built up a pocket of LIQUDITY between 33 and 34 dollars, enough liquidity up to 45 dollars to keep going for on the upside. And much more above $60 from the SEPTEMBER bears that never took profits.
The 12-HOUR chart has got BULLISH MARKET structure after the yesterday's close above $40. A combo of a regular + hidden BULLISH RSI divergences, always a strong sequence to have on your side before taking a position.
This looks like a strong LONG set-up to me.
On-chain data supports the bullish narrative, and SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:ASTER weak numbers post-Defillama.
All that's needed is a breakout 3% above the 40 dollar mark.
Will post my 4-HOUR chart next, with a harmonic pattern that is an obstacle before the continuation upwards.
👽💙
USDCHF Forming An Elliott Wave Ending DiagonalUSDCHF has made a nice and interesting recovery since September, but so far only in three waves, with a recent reversal down from around the 0.8070 area, so recovery might have been just another corrective rally within an incomplete downtrend. As we know, if we don’t see five waves up from the lows, then the bottom is likely not in place yet. In fact, if current prices break the channel support and move through 0.7940, we should be aware of a possible retest of the 2025 lows, which could be the final leg within a higher-degree ending diagonal. Also keep in mind that USDCHF could still move lower even in a risk-off mode, as the Swiss franc tends to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. However, if we see a sudden and very strong franc in the weeks ahead, the Swiss National Bank could step in and take action to prevent it from rising too far, as they already expressed some concern about that in recent statements.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Long Setup: Rebound from Critical Demand ZoneSymbol: XAUUSD Timeframe: 30 Minute (30M) Date: October 23, 2025
Technical Analysis & Trade Plan
The XAU/USD chart on the 30-minute timeframe shows the price completing a sharp corrective move following a strong downtrend. We are anticipating a significant bounce from a major structural support area.
1. Key Demand Zone Identified:
The price has landed precisely into a major Demand/Support Zone (highlighted in grey).
This zone spans approximately from $4,025.00 to $4,060.00 and represents a historical support level coinciding with a critical underlying long-term trendline (the lower purple line).
2. Confirmation Pattern: Falling Wedge:
A classic reversal pattern, the Falling Wedge, has formed during this correction. This pattern typically signals an imminent bullish reversal after a bearish move.
The actual entry trigger will be the breakout and close above the upper boundary of this wedge pattern (the dashed purple trendline).
3. Precise Trade Details (Long Position):
Our structured long trade is set up as follows:
Entry Price $4,082.298
Stop Loss (S/L) $3,981.607
Take Profit 1 (TP1) $4,174.875
Take Profit 2 (TP2) $4,444.373
4. Risk Management:
This setup offers an excellent Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R) greater than 4:1, making it a high-probability trade worth pursuing.
Disclaimer:
This is a personal technical perspective and is NOT financial advice. Always practice proper risk management and trade responsibly.
#GOLD #XAUUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSignal #Forex #Investing #TradeSetup
XRP Prepares to Resume Uptrend with an Inverted H&SH PatternXRP Prepares to Resume Uptrend with an Inverted H&SH Pattern
On the 60-minute chart, XRP confirmed a clear bullish pattern. The price has already broken out of the neckline of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, indicating that the bullish trend is emerging again.
If the price holds strong around this area, there is a good chance that XRP will perform well in this short-term trading setup, possibly reaching targets today or over the weekend.
Main targets:
2,500
2,570
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NEAR - Patience at the Pivot, Power at the Bounce!📦NEAR has been stuck within a big range for months. After failing at the mid-range, price is grinding lower, and I’d prefer one more liquidity sweep into the blue support zone to reset late longs and load smart risk.
⚔️If buyers defend 2.00 and we then reclaim 2.20 → 2.30 (H4 close back above the pink structure), I’ll look for trend-following longs toward 2.70, then 3.10–3.40 (major resistance).
Plan:
🏹Wait for the dip into support, hunt for a wick + strong close/reclaim, and let the squeeze do the heavy lifting back into the range highs.
📚All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
USD/JPY 30-Min — Volume Buy & Sell Reversals TriggeredTime Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
Bullish Reversal - 152.250
Bearish Reversal 153.000 Zone
🆚 Reasons To Enter The path
————
➕ Volume Engaged & Confirmed
➕ Time Zone Aligned (London / NY)
➕ Liquidity Cleared Below
➕ Cluster Shield Active
➕ Delta Shift Showing Buyer Control
➕ Reversal Formation Detected
➕ Price Below POC – Ready for Retrace
➕ Entry Prepared with Zero Emotion
Gold, Silver Outlook: Haven Sentiment, Reversal Patterns on HoldFollowing the heated headlines on gold and silver — driving long lines outside jewelry stores and fueling intense media coverage and momentum — a contrarian signal has emerged. This signal was confirmed by classic reversal patterns, triggering the 300+ point selloff we witnessed this week.
Gold Outlook:
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have formed a double-top pattern near the $4,380 peak, pulling back toward $4,000 support — a level that now defines two potential scenarios:
A sustained move below $4,000 — the double-top target and key support — could trigger another 300-point decline, with the next support zones around $3,920 and $3,780.
As price action remains above the target but below the neckline, the bearish bias persists. A clean break above $4,200–$4,240 would be required to reignite upside momentum toward $4,300–$4,380, after which new record highs could extend toward $4,900–$5,000.
Silver Outlook
On the 4-hour chart, silver has traced a head and shoulders reversal pattern, targeting the $47.30 level. If prices close back above the neckline at $50.80, gains may resume toward record levels, with key targets at $52.40, $54.40, and $56.60. Holding below $47 could extend losses toward $44.40 and $42.90, aligning with the trendline connecting consecutive higher highs between January 2023 and October 2024, setting up a potential bullish rebound.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
$AVNT (4-HOUR): SPOT (65c) buy done 3 days ago, 21% UP today.NYSE:AVNT SPOT buy at 65c doing pretty well, 3 days and 20%+ up. My TAKE PROFIT levels stay the same, BULLISH momentum intact.
89.5c is the next expected solid resistance, and also a likely reversal back to the downside, due to this current wave up potentially being a WAVE A move, which would likely reach 89.5c, fib 0.618, a key horizontal resistance (former support).
I'm tempted to take profits early as a lot of LIQUDITY has built up below (55-64c), but sticking with the original strategy for the time being.
BULLISH market structure in place, no divergences, likely continuation, happy to hold.
💙👽
BTC: Breakout or a deeper dip into 105–102k?__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is pinned just below 112.0–112.5k, with 12H/1D still trending up but capped by a risk‑off macro backdrop. Volatility is compressing and flows are mixed, favoring catalyst‑driven moves.
Momentum: 📉 Neutral‑to‑bearish tactically below 112.0–112.5k until a clean daily breakout confirms.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF): 112.0–112.5k (key pivot), 114.6–115.0k, 115.8–116.6k.
- Supports (HTF): 109.5–110.0k (demand block), 107.0–107.5k, 105.0–102.0k (ISPD staircase: 105.0 → 103.5 → 102.6–102.0k).
Volumes: Moderate to normal, no notable extremes (mainly intraday).
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = Up, 2H/4H = Down, 15/30m = Up; this mix warrants clear confirmation at key gates (112.5k up, 109.5k/107k down).
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE — a headwind that contradicts the HTF uptrend and argues for caution on break attempts.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic stance: HTF trend remains constructive, but we favor patient, opportunistic execution while price sits below 112.5k.
Global bias: Neutral‑cautious (NEUTRE VENTE) while < 112.5k; bullish invalidation on a daily close above 112.5k.
Opportunities:
- Breakout buy: Buy a confirmed close/retest above 112.5k targeting 114.6k then 116.5k.
- Tactical sell: Fade a firm rejection at 111.9–112.5k with volume, target 110.0k then 107.0k.
- Buy‑the‑dip: Scale in on clean reversal within 105.0–102.0k (ISPD), add on hold above the reclaimed floor.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- Break below 109.5k opens 107.0k; losing 107.0k can accelerate toward 105.0–102.0k.
- Failed follow‑through after >112.5k breakout = trap; invalidate on a close back below 111.9k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- US CPI ahead: a hotter print revives “higher for longer” and weighs on breakouts.
- US spot ETF flows: 7‑day average negative — headwind until it improves.
- Fed: 2025 cut cycle started but split views — volatility remains elevated.
Action plan:
- Breakout long: Entry 112.6k (validated retest) / Stop 111.9k / TP1 113.2k, TP2 114.6k, TP3 116.5k (R/R ≈ 1.8–2.0).
- Fade short: Entry 112.2k (confirmed rejection) / Stop 112.6k / TP1 110.0k, TP2 107.0k, TP3 105.0k (R/R ≈ 2.0).
- Dip long (scales): Entry 105.0–102.0k on ≥2H reversal candle / Stop below hit floor / TP1 107.0k, TP2 110.0k, TP3 112.5k (R/R ≈ 2–3).
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
In sum, higher timeframes are constructive, but mid‑TF weakness still caps upside attempts.
1D/12H: Uptrend, yet 112.0–112.5k is the breakout “gate”; moderate volumes → demand a clean close/follow‑through before adding risk.
6H: Recovery stalls below 112.7–113.0k; watch 105.0k (6H ISPD) for a quality reversal‑buy trigger.
4H/2H/1H: Corrective bias; rallies fade near 112.9–113.4k while 109.3–110.0k holds — loss exposes 107.0k.
30m/15m: Micro uptrend inside the range; momentum trigger above 112.25–112.3k, but macro headwind argues for smaller size and confirmed follow‑through.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro is event‑driven (CPI, ETF flows), while on‑chain/derivatives point to a hedged, cautious regime.
Macro events: US CPI in focus (a “hot” print would weigh on breakouts); US spot ETF 7‑day average flows negative (risk‑off tone); the Fed started a 2025 cut cycle but remains split — volatility risk persists.
Bitcoin analysis: Range framed by 112k (daily close needed) and ~106–107k; volatility compression lifts breakout odds, but cooled flows argue for selectivity.
On-chain data: BTC below STH cost basis (~113.1k) and ~108.6k quantile; options put‑skew and elevated IV — a hedged transition regime.
Expected impact: Technical bias stays “neutral‑sell” until a daily close > 112.5k or a strong reversal on clustered floors at 105–102k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC trades a liquidity‑heavy range below 112.5k with stepped supports toward 107k and 105–102k.
- Overall trend: neutral with a slight downside skew at resistance.
- Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112.5k or quality reversal buy within 105–102k.
- Key macro factor: US CPI and persistently soft ETF flows shape timing and conviction.
Stay disciplined: wait for validation or quality dips before deploying risk.






















