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Rising Wedge Breakout Spells Decline Continuation For GUFX:GBPUSD delivered a Breakout of A Rising Wedge to end the week last week! Next, we should suspect a Retest of this Breakout @ the 38.2% Retracement level around 1.31864. This level proved to hold price below it through the formation of the pattern and would serve as a great area of opportunity to short the pair and ride Price down! If the Retest of the Breakout is successful, Price would next find Support at the April Lows around the 1.28 - 1.27 area! Fundamentally its a heavy week for USD with events for GBP littered throughout so keep a close eye on how the results end up affecting the markets!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Bitcoin Bear Market 2026 | Macro Cycle & Rising Wedge BreakdownBitcoin Macro Cycle Analysis (2013–2029) | Rising Wedge Breakdown • 2026 Bear Market Targets • Historical % Drops & Next Accumulation Zone Bitcoin historical data strongly follows multi-year macro cycles , where each bull market has been followed by a deep bear market correction: 📉 2nd Cycle (2017–2018) Top: 19,666 (17 Dec 2017) Bottom: 3,122 (15 Dec 2018) Correction: –84.23% 📉 3rd Cycle (2021–2022) Top: 68,997 (8 Nov 2021) Bottom: 15,479 (9 Nov 2022) Correction: –76.64% 📉 4th Cycle (2025–2026 – Ongoing) Top: 126,272 (6 Oct 2025) Rising Wedge + Distribution Phase breakdown confirms bearish structure shift Based on historical cycle behavior and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin has entered the 4th major bear market 📍 Projected Bottom Zone (2026) Primary Support Zone: ➡️ $40,000 – $42,000 – $45,382 (Aligned with Wedge Breakdown + Macro Support) Percentage-Based Targets: –68.16% drop: → ≈ $40,000 –74% historical drop scenario: → ≈ $31,000 (max capitulation zone) 📅 Expected Bottom Window: September – October 2026 → Historically the strongest long-term buying opportunity . 📈 5th Cycle Expectations (2026–2029) Bitcoin has been following a Long-Term Rising Wedge (Bearish Continuation / Reversal Pattern) since 2021. This pattern is expected to fully complete by April 2029 → leading into a new long-term top and then the 5th bear market . ⭐ Why This Analysis Matters Combines **cycle history**, **on-chain metrics**, **pattern analysis**, and **macro support zones** Helps identify high-probability long-term Bitcoin accumulation levels Useful for swing traders, long-term investors, and cycle-based portfolio strategies 🔔 If You Find This Analysis Helpful 👍 Like • 💬 Comment • ⭐ Save It motivates me to share more high-quality Bitcoin cycle research!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Houseofcryptokings
HTZ | Falling Wedge Reversal Setup - Breakout Toward $10Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) is currently trading at the lower boundary of a well-defined falling wedge pattern, a structure that often signals a potential bullish reversal. The price has once again touched the wedge’s support line, showing early signs of reacting from this level. This repeated defense of support suggests that sellers may be losing momentum as the range continues to narrow. If HTZ maintains support at this lower trendline and begins to push higher, the next key level to monitor is the upper wedge resistance. A confirmed breakout above that level may trigger a shift in trend, opening room for a measured move toward the $10 target area, which aligns with previous highs and the projected wedge breakout objective. While the trend is still technically down, the structure of the wedge combined with the current bounce setup provides a constructive environment for a possible reversal. Confirmation and healthy volume on the breakout will be essential to validate the move. (This idea is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.)
NASDAQ:HTZLong
by paisakkaran
2
Iluniam: Stablecoins 2.0 — 8–15 % APY with Zero Volatility RiskWhile the broader crypto market is going through one of its sharpest corrections of the entire cycle — Bitcoin down 17 %, Ethereum down 22 %, and most major altcoins bleeding 30–45 % in just two weeks — there exists an asset class that not only refuses to drop, but is currently paying the highest real, predictable yield we have seen in the past 26 months. We are talking about the new generation of stablecoins and proven classics (USDT, USDC, DAI, USAT, USDY, USDe, USDM) that in November 2025 are delivering 8–15 % annualised returns completely insulated from price volatility. This is not marketing hype. This is cold, hard, on-chain verifiable income that is being paid out daily and weekly to millions of wallets right now — while the rest of the market is red. The reason is simple: The November correction has driven massive capital flight into safety → lending protocol volumes surged +38 % in the last 14 days alone. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated (3-month T-bills ≈ 4.9–5.1 %), and every protocol backed by treasuries or repo agreements is mechanically passing that yield straight to users. Centralised exchanges and DeFi platforms are in a fierce liquidity war — they are temporarily boosting rates to historic highs to attract stablecoin deposits before year-end. In short: right now stablecoins are the highest-yielding truly risk-free asset class in the entire crypto and traditional finance space. Top 7 Stablecoin Yield Opportunities Right Now (Iluniam data, 18 November 2025) USAT (Ampleforth Treasury) — 14.7–15.3 % APY Backing: 100 % short-term treasuries + repo Platforms: Pendle (USAT pool), Morpho Blue Risk level: minimal (1:1 overcollateralized) USDY (Ondo Finance) — 13.1–14.4 % APY Backing: treasuries + BlackRock BUIDL integration Platforms: Ondo direct, Pendle, Sky (ex-Maker) Bonus: Coinbase listing confirmed for December USDe (Ethena) + sUSDe staking — 11.8–13.2 % APY Strategy: delta-neutral (spot + perpetual short) Platforms: Ethena, Symbiotic Risk: medium, but covered by a $400 m insurance fund USDC on Coinbase Advanced — 11.2 % APY Simple deposit, no lock-up, instant withdrawal FDIC insurance up to $250 k on fiat portion USDT on Bybit Earn — 10.5–11.8 % (flexible + 30-day locked) Up to 15 % bonus for new deposits until 30 November USDM (Mountain Protocol) — 10.1–10.9 % APY Backing: 100 % treasuries, fully regulated (Bermuda) Platforms: Mountain + Curve DAI in Sky (ex-Maker) + Spark — 8.4–9.8 % APY The most decentralised option, DSR + Spark lending Risk vs Reward Comparison (Iluniam Risk Score 1–10) StablecoinAPYRisk (1–10)LiquidityBacking / InsuranceUSAT14.7–15.3 %2High100 % treasuries + repoUSDY13.1–14.4 %2HighBlackRock BUIDL + treasuriesUSDe11.8–13.2 %5High$400 m insurance fundUSDC (Coinbase)11.2 %1InstantFDIC + Circle reservesUSDT (Bybit)10.5–11.8 %4HighTether reserves Iluniam Recommendation for November–December 2025 Conservative capital (70–100 %): USAT + USDY + USDC → average 12.8–14.1 % APY at near-zero risk Aggressive slice (20–40 %): USDe + Pendle PT-USAT (fixed 16–18 % until March 2026) Why this beats simply holding BTC/ETH right now Yield is guaranteed and compounds daily/weekly Zero exposure to downside volatility (you earn while the market bleeds) Full liquidity — exit anytime and buy assets 10–20 % cheaper when the dip ends Final Word from Iluniam November 2025 is not a time to panic over red charts. It is the best moment in the past two years to park part of your capital in Stablecoins 2.0 and collect 8–15 % real yield while waiting for the next leg up. We have already allocated 68 % of our clients’ free cash into these exact protocols — and they are earning every single day. Want the same result without wasting time searching? The complete “Stablecoins 2.0 — Where and How to Earn 15 % in November” guide is already available in the private Iluniam channel.
CRYPTOCAP:STABLE.C.DShort
by CryptoLifeone
NZDUSD: Bearish Trend Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸 NZDUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. The market finally completed a correctional movement yesterday, forming a bearish imbalance candle and setting a new lower low lower close with a confirmed BoS. We can expect another wave lower. Next support will be 0.56. Look for selling after a completion of a pullback. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
CADJPY - Overbought at Resistance… Correction Ahead?⚔️CADJPY is approaching a major rejection zone around 111.00 , which aligns perfectly with the upper bound of the rising channel. Price is also showing clear overbought behavior, making this area a critical decision point for the next move. For now, the pair remains overall bullish, trading inside a clean ascending structure. However, the current location leaves CADJPY vulnerable to a corrective move as long as the 111.00 resistance continues to hold. If the bulls manage to break and hold above 111.00, the momentum could extend toward higher highs. But if the resistance rejects price again, we can expect a move back toward the lower trendline of the channel to reset the structure.📉 The market is now at a key inflection zone… will 111.00 act as a ceiling or fuel the next breakout? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Short
by TheSignalyst
1
DXY 1D - dollar waking up, but patience is keyOn the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is showing the first signs of recovery: a falling wedge breakout and trendline breach hint that bulls are slowly reclaiming control. Price has moved above the EMA, a short-term bullish signal. Still, MA200 remains above, reminding us that the broader trend is not yet flipped. The ideal play here - wait for a retest of the breakout trendline to confirm buyers’ strength before jumping in. If price holds above 99.70, the next upside targets sit around 100.19, 101.31, and 102.63. But keep in mind - DXY loves to test patience. False breakouts are its favorite sport. Right now, the dollar looks ready to wake up, but maybe hit the snooze button one last time before the real move begins.
TVC:DXYLong
by TotoshkaTrades
ETH About to Explode or Collapse?Yello Paradisers! Are you prepared for what’s coming next on ETHUSD? Because right now, Ethereum is sitting on the edge of a critical structure that could lead to a major breakout—or trap unsuspecting traders in another fake move. The setup is developing quickly, and what happens next will determine the short-term direction in a big way. 💎ETHUSD is currently forming a textbook falling wedge pattern, a structure often seen at the end of corrective phases and typically followed by strong bullish breakouts. What adds more weight to this scenario is the clear bullish divergence forming on both the MACD histogram and the Stochastic RSI. These indicators suggest that bearish momentum is weakening and bulls may be getting ready to take control. 💎For traders who prefer confirmation, the ideal move is to wait for a decisive breakout above the wedge. That would significantly increase the probability of a sustained bullish move and reduce the risk of being caught in a fakeout. However, for more aggressive traders, there may already be a reason to act. A bullish engulfing candle has formed directly at a key support level—an early signal that buyers are starting to step in with strength. 💎That said, we cannot ignore the invalidation scenario. If the price breaks down and closes candle below the defined invalidation level, the entire bullish outlook will be off the table. In that case, it will be crucial to stay patient and wait for a clearer price action setup to form before considering new positions. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
2
CADJPY: Ending Diagonal + RD(_) = Downtrend StartingToday, I’d like to share a Short positioning opportunity on the CADJPY pair . In the current scenario, CADJPY is moving within a Resistance zone(112.100 JPY-109.500 JPY) and is close to a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) as well as the upper line of the ascending channel. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that CADJPY is completing the microwave 5 of the microwave C of the main wave Y , and the microwave 5 appears to be forming an Ending Diagonal . Additionally, we can observe a negative Regular Divergence (RD-) between the peaks. Fundamental analysis : Considering the above analysis, and also taking into account the fundamental conditions, Canada’s core inflation came in softer than expected, reinforcing the BoC’s easing path, while JPY benefits from the current risk-off tone. Fundamentally, CADJPY remains biased to the downside. Finally, based on all the above, I expect that CADJPY will begin its downward trend, with a First target at 109.103 JPY Take Profit(2): 108.543 JPY Stop Loss(SL): 118.820 JPY(Worst) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Canadian Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analysis (CADJPY), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
15
Bitcoin: Extreme support 91k! Big pump soon (easy, watch this)Bitcoin is in a critical situation because the price broke the falling wedge, and instead of a bullish breakout, we see a bearish breakdown! I expected this price action, please look at my previous posts. The falling wedge in general is a bullish pattern, but in bear markets they are bearish patterns. But soon Bitcoin will hit a key support level, and this is great hopium for the bulls! The key support level is 91k! Why? We have a very strong confluence to buy Bitcoin here, at least for a short-term bounce. First of all, there is an unfilled CME futures GAP on the daily chart. Second, there is an unfilled FVG (Fair Value Gap) between 91660 and 85320 on Binance. The next is the Fibonacci 0.618 FIB level on the LOG scale. This fibo is exactly at 91122. What is the plan? Now you know that there is very strong support at 91k, and that's a good upcoming trade! What you want to do is to put your limit order here and wait for the price to come to you and then take profit a little bit higher! Where to take profit? Don't forget to follow my TradingView account because I will inform you about a good level to sell/short BTC. What to do now? I would wait for Bitcoin to come to 91k, then I expect a bounce to higher levels! I think we will see a pretty nice pump in November/December, but be patient and wait for 91k. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
166
XAUUSD: Bullish Rebound Setup as Price Holds Above Wedge SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis XAUUSD is currently maintaining a bullish market structure after rebounding from the key Wedge Support Line, which continues to act as a major dynamic support for the ongoing uptrend. The chart shows that Gold previously formed a broad Range at the top, followed by a sharp rejection from the Resistance Area near $4,170–$4,200, where strong sellers stepped in. This zone remains the primary supply region and aligns closely with the Wedge Resistance Line, creating a strong confluence barrier. After the rejection, price moved back into a correction phase, retesting both the Support Zone around $4,040–$4,070 and the ascending wedge structure. Notably, the recent bullish reaction inside this zone indicates that buyers are still defending this area effectively. Multiple breakouts and a prior fake breakout highlight that sellers are struggling to maintain downward momentum, while buyers continue to accumulate at lower levels. Currently, XAUUSD is stabilizing just above the Support Zone, forming early signs of a potential upward continuation. As long as the price respects the wedge support and holds above $4,070, the bullish structure remains intact. The market behavior suggests increasing buyer interest, especially during retests of lower support. My Scenario & Strategy I expect Gold to continue its upward movement from the current support area and retest the $4,170–$4,200 Resistance Zone once again. This level will be the next major decision point; a successful breakout above this zone could open the path toward higher highs and potentially signal a continuation of the broader bullish trend. However, if XAUUSD breaks below the Wedge Support Line, the bullish outlook would weaken, and the price could revisit deeper support levels before buyers attempt another recovery. For now, bullish continuation remains the most probable scenario as long as the support structure holds. Pullback-based long entries remain the best approach while price continues to trade above the key support zone and upward trendline. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
19
USDJPY Near Major Resistance – Rising Wedge Signals Reversal1. What Happened Recently After the gap up above resistance in early October, USDJPY has continued to climb, recently breaking above the 155.00 psychological level. However, the entire advance of the past weeks is developing inside a rising wedge pattern — a structure that usually signals loss of momentum and often precedes a bearish reversal. 2. Current Market Context It is also important to note that if USDJPY rises above 156.50, it enters a major resistance zone, historically triggering significant pullbacks. So while the trend is still technically up, the risk-reward for new longs is deteriorating rapidly. 3. Technical Outlook Key levels to watch: - 156.50 → strong resistance; break above it creates a fade-the-rally opportunity - Rising wedge support → a break below confirms a reversal signal - 158.00 → invalidation; strong buying above this level cancels the bearish scenario Downside target: - 150.00 → main objective for a completed wedge breakdown 4. Trading Plan I am currently preparing two sell plans: - Break above 156.50 → fade rallies If price spikes above this zone but fails to hold, I will look to sell. - Break of the wedge support → trend reversal setup A clean breakdown from the wedge would confirm that the uptrend is exhausted, offering another shorting opportunity. 5. Conclusion Although USDJPY remains in an uptrend for now, the combination of a rising wedge, major resistance at 156.50, and weak bullish momentum makes a reversal increasingly probable. My target is 150, with invalidation only if strong buying appears above 158.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
GRAB 1D - picking phones off the market floor again?GRAB pulled back exactly into the 4.90–5.10 buy-zone, where the wedge retest aligns with the MA200 - a major technical cluster that previously launched strong impulses. Oscillators show deep oversold conditions, candles print buyer tails, and the first resistance sits at 5.35, matching the 0.618 retracement. A breakout above 5.35 opens the path toward 8.65 (1.618), and a move above 6.80 could initiate a larger rally toward 11.92 based on the 2.618 extension. Company: Grab Holdings is Southeast Asia’s largest super-app platform, combining ride-hailing, food delivery, fintech, payments, and micro-lending across Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Fundamentally , as of November 19, GRAB continues to strengthen: gross profit and GMV grow, operational efficiency improves, and both ride-hailing and delivery segments have reached sustainable profitability. Fintech is expanding at double-digit rates, margins improve as subsidies are reduced, and operating losses continue to shrink. Cash flow strengthens, the path to full profitability is visible, and the overall digital-services boom across Southeast Asia remains a long-term driver for growth. Competition cooled, monetization improved - exactly то environment the company needed. Technically , the bullish scenario holds as long as price stays above 4.90–5.10. A breakout above 5.35 activates the 8.65 target, and the major upside - 11.92 - becomes realistic once price gets above 6.80. A drop below 4.80 complicates the picture, but current structure still looks like a controlled reset rather than a trend break. Grab acting like usual: discounts first, acceleration later - Southeast Asia likes this script.
NASDAQ:GRABLong
by TotoshkaTrades
The Support Zone That Refused To Be IgnoredSome chart zones whisper. This one practically waved its arms. Price slid right into a hefty support area on the higher timeframe… and suddenly started behaving like it had forgotten how to move lower. Classic clue. Zoom in, and the daily chart shows price squeezing itself into a falling wedge — the market’s equivalent of someone pacing in a hallway, unsure whether to sit down or sprint. Sellers kept trying to push prices lower, but each attempt had less conviction than the last. When you stack those two pieces together — a big support zone from the monthly chart and a daily pattern running out of room — things start to get interesting. Not predictive, just… interesting. A breakout above the wedge (around 0.0065030) would basically say, “Alright, I’m done compressing.” A stop tucked below the lower support range (roughly 0.0063330) keeps the scenario clean. And a structural projection toward 0.0067695 gives the idea a tidy endpoint if momentum decides to stretch its legs. Of course, leverage cuts both ways, and traders working with the standard or micro contracts often choose size based on how much room they want between entry and invalidation. When traders choose between the standard and micro versions of this market, it usually comes down to scale. The bigger contract represents 12,500,000 units of the underlying with a $6.25 tick, while the micro mirrors the behavior at 1,250,000 units with a $1.25 tick. Estimated margins also differ — roughly $2,800 for the larger contract and about $280 for the micro. Same chart logic, just two very different footprints on the account. The real takeaway? When a major zone teams up with a compression pattern, it’s usually worth paying attention. Maybe it leads to a beautiful breakout. Maybe it fizzles. But structurally, this is one of those “save the screenshot” moments. And whatever the outcome, risk management keeps the whole thing sensible — size smartly, define failure points, and let the chart prove itself instead of assuming it will. Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
GBP/USD: Trouble Brewing for Bulls?A revisit of the November lows may be on the cards for cable, coiling within what resembles a rising wedge following its lurch lower in October. Sitting on uptrend support and showing little inclination to bounce meaningfully in recent days, traders should be on alert for a potential downside break. If we see a bearish wedge break, shorts could be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection, targeting 1.3100 initially. Unless the move is definitive, a close beneath the uptrend would be preferable before entering the position. As a bearish continuation pattern, convention suggests we may see the starting point for the wedge revisited, putting 1.3010 on the radar as a level to assess whether to hold, add or reverse should the price return there. There’s evidence that downside strength is building again, with RSI (14) breaking its uptrend before reversing away from the neutral 50 level. MACD remains in negative territory but has yet to cross the signal line from above. If that occurs, it will increase conviction in the trade. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREX.com
NATGAS Bearish Breakout! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS broke down from the bearish wedge, signalling displacement and a shift in order flow. After sweeping internal liquidity, price is expected to expand lower toward the marked target demand zone. Time Frame 4H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
2
Campbell's may be bottoming, reinvest those dividends!After a lengthy drawdown, NASDAQ:CPB may finally be grinding out a bottom. A small falling wedge, which tends to be a reversal pattern, appears to be forming. Analysts are dour on consumer staples companies, but few have the moat Campbell's does. The conventional wisdom in markets now is, the AI bubble has more room to inflate, so you may as well hold onto those positions and be one of the first out at the exit... Why not start building a position in some of these high quality left-for-dead value stocks and start averaging in with the dividends? In the case of NASDAQ:CPB the yield is now better than the yield you'll get on cash.
NASDAQ:CPBLong
by quickshiftinn
3
A High-Impact Support Zone Meets a Breakout StructureIntroduction Markets occasionally compress into areas where structure, momentum, and historical buying pressure align with surprising precision. When that compression occurs at a major higher-timeframe floor, traders often pay closer attention—not because the future is predictable, but because the chart reveals a location where price behavior typically becomes informative. The current case study centers on a market pressing into a high-impact support zone visible on the monthly chart, while the daily chart displays a falling wedge pattern that has gradually narrowed the range of movement. This combination often highlights moments where the auction process is nearing a decision point. The purpose here is to dissect that confluence using multi-timeframe structure, pattern logic, and broad order-flow principles—strictly for educational exploration. Higher-Timeframe Structure (Monthly) The monthly chart shows price approaching a well-defined support area between 0.0065425 and 0.0063330, a region that has acted in the past as a base for significant reactions. These areas often develop because markets rarely absorb all buy interest in a single pass; pockets of unfilled orders may remain, leading to renewed reactions when price returns. This type of zone does not guarantee a reversal. However, historically, when price reaches such levels, traders tend to monitor whether selling pressure slows or becomes less efficient. In this case, the structure suggests a recurring willingness from buyers to engage at these prices, forming a foundation that has held multiple swings. The presence of a clear, higher-frame resistance at 0.0067530 anchors the broader range. When price rotates between such boundaries, the monthly context often acts as a roadmap: major support below, major resistance above, and room in between for tactical case-study exploration. Lower-Timeframe Structure (Daily) Shifting to the daily chart, price action has carved a falling wedge, a pattern often associated with decelerating downside movement. In wedges, sellers continue to push price lower, but with diminishing strength, as each successive low becomes less effective. This type of compression structure can provide early evidence that the auction is maturing. Traders studying such patterns often watch for: tightening of the range, shorter waves into new lows, initial signs that buyers are defending intraday attempts to drive price lower. The daily wedge in this case sits directly on top of the monthly support zone—an alignment that strengthens its analytical relevance. The upper boundary of the wedge sits near 0.0065030, and a break above that line is often interpreted as price escaping the compression phase. Multi-Timeframe Confluence Multi-timeframe confluence arises when higher-frame structure provides the background bias and lower-frame patterns offer the tactical trigger. In this case: The monthly chart signals a historically responsive support zone. The daily chart shows structural compression and slowing downside momentum. The interaction between them creates a scenario where educational case studies tend to focus on breakout behavior, as the daily timeframe may provide the first evidence that higher-frame buyers are engaging. This confluence does not imply certainty. It simply highlights a location where structure tends to become more informative, and where traders often study the transition from absorption to response. Order-Flow Logic (Non-Tool-Specific) From an order-flow perspective, strong support zones typically develop where prior buying activity left behind unfilled interest. When price returns to that region, two things often happen: Sellers begin to encounter difficulty driving price lower, as remaining buy orders absorb their activity. Compression patterns form, as the market oscillates in a tightening range while participants test whether enough liquidity remains to cause a directional shift. A breakout of the daily wedge represents a potential change in the auction dynamic. While sellers are still active inside the wedge, a breakout suggests their pressure may have become insufficient to continue the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Traders studying market transitions often use such moments as part of hypothetical scenarios to understand how imbalances evolve. Forward-Looking Trade Idea (Illustrative Only) For educational purposes, here is how a structured case study could frame a potential opportunity using the discussed charts: Entry: A hypothetical entry could be placed above the falling wedge, around 0.0065030, once buyers demonstrate the ability to break outside the compression structure. Stop-Loss: A logical invalidation area in this case study would be at or below the monthly support, around 0.0063330, where failure would indicate the higher-timeframe zone did not hold. Target: A purely structural wedge projection would suggest a target near 0.0067695, aligning closely with the broader resistance region on the monthly chart. These price points yield a reward-to-risk profile that is measurable and logically linked to structure, though not guaranteed. This case study exists solely to illustrate how support-resistance relationships and pattern logic can be combined into a coherent, rules-based plan, not as an actionable idea for trading. Yen Futures Contract Context The larger (6J) and micro-sized (MJY) versions of this futures market follow the same underlying price but differ in exposure and margin scale. The standard contract generally carries a greater notional value and therefore translates each price movement into a larger monetary change. The micro contract mirrors the same structure at a reduced size, allowing traders to adjust position scaling more precisely when navigating major zones or breakout structures such as the one discussed in this case study: 6J equals 12,500,000 Japanese Yen per contract, making it suitable for larger, institutional players. (1 Tick = 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25. Required Margin = $2,800) MJY equals 1,250,000 Japanese Yen per contract, making it suitable for larger, institutional players. (1 Tick = 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25. Required Margin = $280) Understanding margin requirements is essential—these products are leveraged instruments, and small price changes can result in large percentage gains or losses. Risk Management Considerations Strong support zones can attract interest, but risk management remains the foundation of any structured approach. Traders studying these transitions typically: size positions relative to the distance between entry and invalidation, maintain clear exit criteria when structure fails, avoid adjusting stops unless the market has invalidated the original reasons for the plan, adapt to new information without anchoring to prior expectations. These principles emphasize the importance of accepting uncertainty. Even at major support zones, markets can remain volatile, and scenarios may unfold differently than anticipated. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv