I have been giving it some thought and I have a feeling that there will be a rate hike on February 1st and I will list my reasons. #1) We are currently in the micro wave 5 which wont last until the March 14th Fed meeting. 2) The CME group has a FED Watch tool that gives a percentage for the likelihood for a rate hike for this year.....and for Feb 1st we are at...
I believe we are completing our minor wave 5 up to about 2300 2310 range in this bigger wave three. The FOMC rate hike estimation for February 1st is at 97%. I do believe they will hike again on that date being that the last one did nothing. This would also coincide with an overdue DCL. But if we are in fact in a bigger wave 3 then this correction should not...
SP500 Daily Chart
It appears that we are in our micro wave 5 move to complete this bigger wave 3. That's how I see it anyways. And I think we can make it to almost 2300 before the DCL rollover. It just never seems to be able to make it all the way through those milestones marks the first time. If you zoom out you will see my little cycle indicators and if you...
Daily chart for SP500
So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the...
Tvix is almost out of room in this descending triangle. I obviously don't need to talk about being oversold on the Vix and in a long long rally in the market. I see some analysts are talking about no sell off until after the 1st of the year due to lower taxes under Trump, just like I had suggested a few days ago. Only a few more days to prove that theory wrong...
2HR Chart
At this point I do not believe that we will get a sell off before the end of the year. I know that usually happens for tax purposes but I have an alternative theory. I think a lot of people will not sell until after the 1st due to not wanting to have Obamas high tax rate affect them versus Trumps tax cuts next year. I think it will be difficult to...
An interesting article on shorting the VIX and VIX derivatives: www.marketwatch.com
In a nutshell, backwardation occurs (which only applies to VIX derivatives, not to the VIX itself) and this can "derail" a short VIX derivative play that is not given enough time to play out and for contango to kick in and start its inevitable erosion of the underlying, whether it...
TVIX Daily Chart
SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful...
Nothing too difficult here. I think that Italy will vote to leave the EU and we will have a little correction. BUT, I just don't think it will be that great. I am aiming for the blue box. In other words, a retracement to the 38% to 50% then bounce right before the rate hike. I do not think this vote will be as great as the Brexit because it appears to have...
After the elections, the stock rose back to 40$, the same price it was about a month ago. The stock was denied to go higher and is now going back down. If you look at the RSI, it's making lower highs even though the stock is back up at 40$. The markets rose after Donald Trump's election and that was really weird, i think it was a bubble and it's about to pop.
If the stock breaks below the 100MA, there is nothing left to support it. My bet is that it's going to go in the 31$ area. On top of that the elections are coming very quickly and this creates a lot of fear in the market. So if it breaks below the 100MA, I will be buying TVIX and VXX
There is an important resistance level in the area of 40$ and the stock can't seem to break it. It tried many times but it remained unsuccessful. On top of that, we can see an important RSI divergence which can give us a hint on which way the breakout will be. The fear of the elections will also drag the price down below the triangle.
4 hour chart for S&P 500
So as promised, here is my take on the S&P 500 and where I see things moving in the next two months.
I feel very confident that we have just completed the 4th corrective wave of this 5 wave impulse. As you can see, this 4th wave is shallow and complicated. And the 2nd wave (Brexit) is deep and cleaner. So all that is left is the 5th...
In almost every instance that VXX closed above 20 MA, market sold off and VXX had ~20% gain.
Success probability of the trade is really high.
Having said that, today's market price action was not in favor of this trade!
