GOLDUSDThe commodity is in down trend. after taking some breath and priting a HH the commodity made a bearish flag pattern which is continuation pattern. Short can be taken once the price break the LL.Shortby kiki_crypto2
Real-Time Trade Alerts & Analysis🔹 Live Trading Expert | Gold, Forex, Crypto 🔹 Daily Market Insights & Profitable Strategies 🔹 Real-Time Trade Alerts & Analysis 🔹 Helping You Master the Markets 🔹 Follow for Exclusive Tips & UpdatesShort00:58by muntishabuilderUpdated 114
NQ - trading session no.234:00pm - 5:00pm good session today - price action was very good today (trendy and not too choppy) - also many good trades today PnL: +3 RRby GRBmlr1
Euro to Weaken as the ECB Pushes Rate Cuts ForwardCME: Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ) On June 6th, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the official Interest Rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points from 4.00% to 3.75%. This was the first ECB key rate reduction in five years, signaling a major shift in monetary policies in the 20-nation Euro Zone. The ECB rate decision was widely anticipated and has already been priced in the financial markets. On June 7th, the Euro-USD exchange rate was unchanged at $1.080 per Euro. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.83 points to settled at 104.94. In my opinion, the ramifications of ECB rate cuts are underappreciated. This significant event marks the policy divergence between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Their differing rate trajectories could lead to the Euro weakening against the Dollar. How are Exchange Rates determined? In economics, Interest Rate Parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. The formula for IRP is: F0=S0 × ((1+ ic)/(1+ib)) , where: F0 = Forward Rate, S0=Spot Rate; ic = Interest rate in country c; ib = Interest rate in country b In the IRP formula, “b” stands for base currency where "c" is the currency to quote. As Euro-USD exchange rate is expressed as number of Euro per 1 Dollar, i(b) is US interest rate, where i(c) is ECB interest rate. Let’s examine a hypothetical situation where the ECB cuts interest rates three times but the Fed only implements one cut. All rate cuts are in the 25bp increments. Inputs: The ECB cut rates from 4.00% to 3.25% (new ic), and the Fed Funds rate will be lowered to 5.25% (new ib) from 5.50%. Before the cuts, the Euro/USD spot rate was 1.0800 (S0). Output: Plugging the data into the IRP formula, we get a forward rate of 1.0595 (F0), which is computed as 1.800 x (1.0325/1.0525). The IRP suggests that the Euro exchange rate would be lowered by 205 pips, or 1.9%, if the above assumptions hold true, all else being equals. This calculation is remarkedly simple, but nonetheless it describes what drives the value of any currency going up or down. Let’s explain this in plain English: An investor has the option of investing in either U.S. dollar or Euro. The market currently expects the ECB to lower rates more frequently than the Fed would, resulting in the interest rate spread between the dollar and the euro widening in the coming months. As a result, dollar assets would produce a higher return relative to the euro. In the currency market, arbitrageurs will buy up the dollar and dump the euro and attempt to lock in a return generated by the interest rate spread. This would result in the euro depreciating against the dollar. An equilibrium in Euro-USD exchange rate will be reached where holding assets by either currency generates the same return. This is the logic behind the IRP. It is called the Law of One Price. Many factors impact exchange rates. A framework using the IRP is a simplified but very insightful approach to project exchange rate movement over the medium- to long-term. Other factors, including but not limited to inflation, employment, consumer spending and corporate profit, can be viewed as variables influencing the central bank rate decisions. Asides from the mathematical approach, we could consider a country’s currency being reflective of its economic strength. In the early 2000s, the European Union (EU) grew at a faster pace than the US in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). • Between 2000 and 2007, US GDP grew 41.2%, from $10.25 to $14.47 trillion. • Meanwhile, EU GDP nearly doubled, growing 98.8%, from $7.28 to $14.73 trillion. • The EU economy grew from about 2/3 of the US to matching to the same size. • Backed by a strong economy, the Euro gained in value, from 90 cents to over $1.50. However, the trend has been reversed in recent years. • In 2023, US GDP grew to $27.36 trillion, up 167% from 2000, where EU was up 152% to $18.35 trillion. The size of the EU economy is now down to 67% of the US economy. • Since peaking at $1.22 in December 2020, the Euro has been in a multi-year decline, currently trading at around $1.08. More recently, the EU has been hit hard by the global pandemic and geopolitical conflict. Its economy slows and unemployment rises, while inflation becomes sticky. Compared to the Fed, the ECB has more urgency to lower rates and provide relief to the economy of its member nations. When examining the long history of the ECB rate setting behavior, I find its preference in ultra-low rates. In fact, the ECB maintained a negative key rate (-0.5%) for years, before being forced to align with the Fed in a rate-hike journey to fight high inflation. Another observation: The Fed is an independent central bank and has the power to set monetary policy independently. Neither the President nor the Congress could exercise direct influence on the Fed interest rate decisions. The ECB, on the other hand, gets tremendous pressure from political leaders in the 20 governments within the Euro Zone. Rate cuts appeal to both political demand and public sentiment. Therefore, low rates will be a comfort zone for the ECB to fall back into. Unrealistic Market Expectations on the Fed This morning before US market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US consumer price index was unchanged for the month of May, lower than the 0.1% market estimate. On an annualized basis, the US CPI increased 3.3%, which also came in below expectations and represented a slowing from the prior 3.4% pace. Investors cheer for this good news. The three major US stock indexes jumped between 1%-2% in mid-morning. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield slid 140 bps to 4.264%. The Fed will release its June FOMC rate decision at 1:00pm, followed by a speech by the Fed Chair. The market currently expect no rate change in June, but the consensus is moving towards to 2 rate-cuts from 1 rate-cut by the end of the year. While the global markets would react strongly in the short term to any hint the Fed gives out on future rate trajectory today, the dust will settle once investors calm down. I still hold the opinion that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates with inflation above 3%. The US economy is on solid ground. Cutting rates too soon would jeopardize the hard work of combating the out-of-control inflation in the past two years. Trading with CME Euro-FX Futures A short position in CME Euro-FX futures (6E) is a way to express this bearish view on Euro. The September (6EU4) contract is quoted at 1.08605 on June 12th. Each contract has a notional value of €125,000. CME requires an initial margin of $2,100. For a short futures position, a decline (increase) of 1 pip (0.0001%) in the exchange rate will result in $12.50 in gain (loss) in your account balance. Our earlier example suggests that the Euro-USD spot rate could be lowered to 1.0595, if the ECB pushes rate cuts forward. For illustration purpose, if 6EU4 price drops to 1.0595, the price change will be 265.5 pips (1.08605-1.0595=0.02655). And the gain in the short futures account would be $3,318.75 (= 265.5 x 12.50). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Shortby JimHuangChicago5
CPI surprises to the downsideGold and silver were trading in positive territory for most of this morning, but prices were constrained within tight price ranges. Most traders are sitting on their hands ahead of today’s key US inflation update and the Fed’s rate decision. Yesterday saw gold end higher while silver was lower, which was a fair summation of what has been happening since Friday’s unexpectedly sharp decline in both. While gold found some decent support yesterday, spending most of the session north of $2,300, silver’s position appeared more fragile. Silver’s daily MACD remains in overbought territory, although this situation is getting closer to resolving. Silver came close to breaking below $29.00 on several occasions, but in each instance the buyers came in to defend the line. Both metals exploded higher following the release of lower than expected CPI data. Both the Core and Headline readings slipped back from the previous months’ numbers. Stock indices also flew higher while the US dollar slumped. Bond yields fell sharply and, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probabilities rose of two rate cuts this year, with the first coming in September. Gold and silver pulled back from their best levels as the afternoon wore on. While this is undoubtedly positive news for precious metals, and risk assets in general, traders will now focus on tonight’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. Key to this will be the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). These will be studied for significant changes from the previous update in March. by TylerNorcross0
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling. Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.Shortby Sober_Trading116
Can Gold go below 2,300? Despite gold targeting prices as high as 2,600, the buys are taking a brief stop just to grab some liquidity around 2,300. We have seen Accumulation phase, Manipulation phase, and with the weakening of the dollar due to a negative CPI, Gold has come back to fill the sell side inefficiency, hence we expect Distribution phase to begin from within the region. Shortby skylinefabulous3
$ES minimize riskIF you want to minimize risk (name of the game) and trade before FOMC; wait until we get a pullback into 5,432.50-5422.50. If you're trading a prop firm account you can expect at least a 16 point tick move bounce. Longby SimpleJackTrading0
VIX futures consolidation periodI think VIX futures either consolidate for a period before breaking out again or gets crushed lower so SPY can go higher.Shortby OptiPulseUpdated 0
!!! GOLD !!! - Simple ... "BUY & SELL" !!!Hi, We have entered a region seen before... it seems to be a good opportunity to follow the indicated trend lines. Be careful, This is just an idea!by rogvirtualmoney1
Gold possible sell After cpi news, price tend to open an opportunity for a sell, liquidity was created and news made a successful liquidity cleared, while entry limit has been activated,1:3 RR has been setby MadsTheGoldminer3
GOLD BUY OPPORTUNITYIn today's Gold Spot (XAU/USD) trading setup, we're eyeing a buy opportunity as the price approaches the 71.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2318.5, which also aligns with a previous resistance turned support. This confluence zone offers a robust entry point, anticipating a bullish rebound. Our targets are set at the -27.20% retracement level of 2348.20, promising a significant upside. To manage risk effectively, place a stop loss below the previous low at 2310.00, ensuring a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5. This setup provides a strategic entry with a high potential return, making it an attractive opportunity for traders.Longby akumjoel4
Gold Market Poised for Volatility Amid CPI and Fed Rate DecisionTechnical Analysis: Gold The price reached our target from yesterday and still trades at the same zone. Current Outlook: The price is expected to reach 2302 and then push up again. Stability above 2321 would indicate a bullish trend. Generally, the price will consolidate between 2321 and 2302 until a breakout occurs. Market Volatility: Today's market will be influenced by the CPI release and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, leading to increased volatility. Bullish Scenario: If CPI is less than 3.4%, the price should break above 2321 to continue the bullish trend towards 2344 and 2357. Bearish Scenario: If CPI is more than 3.4%, the price may drop to 2302. Stability below 2311 for a 15-minute candle would indicate bearish pressure. A break below 2302 on a 4-hour candle close would target 2292 and potentially 2260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2302 - Resistance Levels: 2333, 2357, 2377 - Support Levels: 2302, 2292, 2260 Today's Expected Range: The price is expected to move between the support at 2292 and the resistance at 2357. Our previous Prediction: Longby SroshMayiUpdated 8
GOLD (XAUUSD) BUY TRADEIn today's trading session, Gold Spot (XAU/USD) showcased a significant price action movement, surging from the 2,312.876 support level to break above the key resistance at 2,336.046, reflecting a substantial intraday bullish momentum. The price reached an impressive 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend before encountering selling pressure. Despite the pullback, the bullish trend remains intact, with strong buying interest evident around the 2,312.876 mark. Traders should keep an eye on the 2,335.980 resistance, as a break above this level could signal further upside potential. Stay tuned for potential breakout opportunities and manage your risk accordingly. Longby akumjoel1
Gold → bottom line reject the pricehello guys... as you can see in the details, OANDA:XAUUSD made an ascending channel, and the bottom line contrary to my imagination rejected the price! the price started an upward movement to reach the descending channel perfectly! I think the touching between the order block and the trendline is perfect for getting a short position until the blue area. ___________________________ ✓✓✓ Always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and commentby melikatrader94Updated 1119
SPX Hourly Cypher Pattern - Long DrawHello traders, Today, I am releasing my observation of a Cypher pattern on the hourly for ES. I believe another extension wave push-up is due before retracing into previous pattern zones. Among the chart are target areas, entry areas, and a stop loss I will be using for this trade. As always, keep in mind the possibility of this trade failing to materialize. None of this analysis is intended to be used as a financial guideline, or as advice to any individual(s). Thank you all for viewing! best, Richie Shortby FatmanRichardUpdated 1
BANKNIFTYBANKNIFTY closed below va 1. gapup 50080 long till 50300 2. 50080-49750 trade reversal 3. gapdown 49750 shortby subhankarsahoo0
xauusdhello beautiful people hope you are well here is XAUUSD chart which is i am sharing with you how i am looking i am looking still buy market already pumped from nearest prices but i still hope market trigger my price hope for the bestLongby WiKiFX1
Free Entry by Contest Winning - Signals Provider :)Good Evening, I hope you find this entry helpful in your trading journey. Gold Sell Entry using my personally developed system! This is a potential active cycle to account flipping using my 5 years of experience, historic results have proven 25+ win streaks. Note: It is not guaranteed that every trade will be profitable. Shortby Extrq111
XAUUSD 1H Long Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: XAUUSD Action: Buy RRR: 1:6 SL: 2296.63 TP: 2433.82 Indicators: EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction. MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend. Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.Longby panjikadar3
NIFTYNIFTY closed below va 1. gapup 23400 long till 23450 2. 23400-23300 trade reversal 3. gapdown 23300 shortby subhankarsahoo5