Even today’s giants have at some point dropped more than 90%“Our favorite holding period is forever.”
– Warren Buffett
Even today’s giants have, at some point, dropped more than 90%.
The guru and super-investor Warren Buffett has delivered many well-known investment quotes. But the truth is that most stocks underperform the index.
Only 4% of all stocks—an incredibly small share—are responsible for the entire long-term return of the stock market.
If you look at that small percentage of stocks driving long-term returns, many of them have also fallen more than 90% from their peak at some point early in their development.
It’s very common for new technologies to get heavily hyped during the early years, only to crash when profitability fails to materialize.
What is extremely rare and unique is when a stock drops >90% and then goes on to make a new all-time high.
A rough estimate suggests that less than 0.1–0.5% of all listed stocks on, for example, the NYSE or Nasdaq, have historically managed this.
Some of those rare cases are found among the 4% of stocks that pull the market upward. Here are a few examples:
1. Apple
Fell more than 90% from its peak around the turn of the millennium (dotcom bubble).
Recovered in the early 2000s and has since increased by thousands of percent to new all-time highs.
2. Amazon
Dropped approximately 95% after the dotcom crash (from $113 to $5.97).
Reached a new all-time high around 2007 and later climbed above $3,000 before its stock split.
3. Netflix
Dropped more than 90% twice, once around 2003 and again in 2011.
Recovered each time and went on to hit new record levels.
4. Booking Holdings
Fell over 99% from its dotcom-era peak (from $990 to $6).
Recovered over several years and eventually surpassed $2,000 before the pandemic.
The crash in green energy can be compared to the dotcom crash.
Most companies dropped 90–99%, and many disappeared entirely.
A few (Amazon, Apple, etc.) had the right vision and survived. The overhyped technology combined with massive capital inflows fueled their rise.
Similarly, many companies in green energy—like Minesto—have attracted large amounts of capital from investors, shareholders, and through substantial grants from both the EU and national governments.
This led to companies being pumped up to unrealistic valuations. Without proven profitability a few years after the hype, nearly all have fallen over 90%, and some have vanished from the market entirely.
Even though things look bleak for green energy—and Minesto in particular—there are strong similarities to today's giants like Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and others.
If you compare Amazon to Minesto, Amazon fell -95.12% from December ’99 to October ’01.
Minesto has dropped -96.39% from its peak in July 2020 to April 2025.
What would it take for Minesto to stage a similar comeback as Amazon?
Those who managed to recover after the dotcom crash had four things in common:
Amazon
Technological edge – Amazon had a scalable platform.
Financing – Survived a capital drought.
Timing – A new internet breakthrough around 2005–2007.
Patience from the market – The stock remained dormant for a long time.
Minesto
Technological edge – Unique technology for harvesting energy from underwater currents.
Financing – Requires strong support and investment appetite (both public and private).
Timing – The green transition and the EU’s energy shift between 2025–2035.
Patience from the market – Investors must be willing to wait several years.
What’s the difference between Amazon and Minesto?
The internet market was digital and could grow exponentially with nearly zero marginal costs.
For Minesto, scaling is much harder as it requires heavy infrastructure, long lead times, and significantly more capital.
However, once a solution like this gains commercial traction in the green energy sector—when the technology is proven and recognized as a crucial component in the energy transition—the returns could be massive, just like they were for today’s giants such as Amazon.
Warren Buffett’s well-known investment advice, mentioned at the beginning, applies only to a very small subset of stocks.
And more likely than not, it means that as an investor, you will need to endure a drop of more than 90% before witnessing the company evolve into a giant within its sector.
