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The S&P 500 has gone 43 trading days without a 1% daily move, up or down.
which is the equivalent of two months and one day in trading days.
During this stretch, the S&P has gained more than 4%,
and it has notched a 52-week high recently as well.
Since 1952, there were nine other precedents. All of
these went 42 trading days without a 1% move, all of
them saw the S&P gain at least 4% during their streaks,
and all of them saw the S&P close at a 52-week highs.
***There was consistent weakness a week later, with only three
gainers, and all below +0.5%.
***After that, stocks did better, often continuing an Extraordinary move higher.
Charts can sometimes give us a better nuance than
numbers from a table, and from the charts we can see a
general pattern -
***if stocks held up well in the following
weeks, then they tended to do extremely well in the
***If stocks started to stumble after this two-
month period of calm, however, then the following months
tended to show a lot more .
We already know we're seeing an exceptional market
environment at the moment, going against a large number
of precedents that argued for weakness here, instead of
the rally we've seen. If we continue to head higher in
spite of everything, these precedents would suggest that
we're in the midst of something that could be TRULY EXTRAORDINARY.
In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.
//Created by ChrisMoody on 6-19-2014 //Plots the % of the closing price based on the close of the previous day. study("_CM_Range_Percent", overlay=false) thr = input(1, minval=0, title="Threshold Percentile, 1=1% - 1.5=1.5%, etc.") tspcy = input(60, minval=0, title="Transparency Fill, 100 = No Fill, Default = 60") upday = close > close downday = close < close rnge_UpDay = close - close rnge_DownDay = close - close rnge_pct_upday = upday ? (rnge_UpDay/close)*100 : na rnge_pct_DownDay = downday ? -(rnge_DownDay/close)*100 : na col = rnge_pct_upday > thr ? lime : rnge_pct_DownDay < -thr ? red : yellow plot(rnge_pct_upday, style=histogram, linewidth=3, color=col) plot(rnge_pct_DownDay, style=histogram, linewidth=3, color=col) p1=plot(thr, title="Upper Threshold Line", style=line, linewidth=3, color=white) p2=plot(-(thr), title="Lower Threshold Line", style=line, linewidth=3, color=white) fill(p1, p2, color=silver, transp=tspcy)