Smart Money Volume Activity [AlgoAlpha]🟠 OVERVIEW
This tool visualizes how Smart Money and Retail participants behave through lower-timeframe volume analysis. It detects volume spikes far beyond normal activity, classifies them as institutional or retail, and projects those zones as reactive levels. The script updates dynamically with each bar, showing when large players enter while tracking whether those events remain profitable. Each event is drawn as a horizontal line with bubble markers and summarized in a live P/L table comparing Smart Money versus Retail.
🟠 CONCEPTS
The core logic uses Z-score normalization on lower-timeframe volumes (like 5m inside a 1h chart). This lets the script detect statistically extreme bursts of buying or selling activity. It classifies each detected event as:
Smart Money — volume inside the candle body (suggesting hidden accumulation or distribution)
Retail — volume closing at bar extremes (suggesting chase entries or panic exits)
When new events appear, the script plots them as horizontal levels that persist until price interacts again. Each level acts as a potential reaction zone or liquidity footprint. The integrated P/L table then measures which class (Retail or Smart Money) is currently “winning” — comparing cumulative profitable versus losing volume.
🟠 FEATURES
Classifies flows into Smart Money or Retail based on candle-body context.
Displays live P/L comparison table for Smart vs Retail performance.
Alerts for each detected Smart or Retail buy/sell event.
🟠 USAGE
Setup : Add the script to any chart. Set Lower Timeframe Value (e.g., “5” for 5m) smaller than your main chart timeframe. The Period input controls how many bars are analyzed for the Z-score baseline. The Threshold (|Z|) decides how extreme a volume must be to plot a level.
Read the chart : Horizontal lines mark where heavy Smart or Retail volume occurred. Bright bubbles show the strongest events — their size reflects Z-score intensity. The on-chart table updates live: green cells show profitable flows, red cells show losing flows. A dominant green Smart Money row suggests institutions are currently controlling price.
See what others are doing :
Settings that matter : Raising Threshold (|Z|) filters noise, showing only large players. Increasing Period smooths results but reacts slower to new bursts. Use Show = “Both” for full comparison or isolate “Smart Money” / “Retail” to focus on one class.
Sentiment
Market Regime IndexThe Market Regime Index is a top-down macro regime nowcasting tool that offers a consolidated view of the market’s risk appetite. It tracks 32 of the world’s most influential markets across asset classes to determine investor sentiment by applying trend-following signals to each independent asset. It features adjustable parameters and a built-in alert system that notifies investors when conditions transition between Risk-On and Risk-Off regimes. The selected markets are grouped into equities (7), fixed income (9), currencies (7), commodities (5), and derivatives (4):
Equities = S&P 500 E-mini Index Futures, Nasdaq-100 E-mini Index Futures, Russell 2000 E-mini Index Futures, STOXX Europe 600 Index Futures, Nikkei 225 Index Futures, MSCI Emerging Markets Index Futures, and S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)/Low Beta (SPLV) Ratio.
Fixed Income = US 10Y Treasury Yield, US 2Y Treasury Yield, US 10Y-02Y Yield Spread, German 10Y Bund Yield, UK 10Y Gilt Yield, US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate, US 10Y TIPS Yield, US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, and US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread.
Currencies = US Dollar Index (DXY), Australian Dollar/US Dollar, Euro/US Dollar, Chinese Yuan/US Dollar, Pound Sterling/US Dollar, Japanese Yen/US Dollar, and Bitcoin/US Dollar.
Commodities = ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, COMEX Gold Futures, COMEX Silver Futures, COMEX Copper Futures, and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Futures.
Derivatives = CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), ICE US Bond Market Volatility Index (MOVE), CBOE 3M Implied Correlation Index, and CBOE VIX Volatility Index (VVIX)/VIX.
All assets are directionally aligned with their historical correlation to the S&P 500. Each asset contributes equally based on its individual bullish or bearish signal. The overall market regime is calculated as the difference between the number of Risk-On and Risk-Off signals divided by the total number of assets, displayed as the percentage of markets confirming each regime. Green indicates Risk-On and occurs when the number of Risk-On signals exceeds Risk-Off signals, while red indicates Risk-Off and occurs when the number of Risk-Off signals exceeds Risk-On signals.
Bullish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) > (ATR × ATR Margin)
Bearish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) < –(ATR × ATR Margin)
Market Regime = (Risk-On signals – Risk-Off signals) ÷ Total assets
This indicator is designed with flexibility in mind, allowing users to include or exclude individual assets that contribute to the market regime and adjust the input parameters used for trend signal detection. These parameters apply to each independent asset, and the overall regime signal is smoothed by the signal length to reduce noise and enhance reliability. Investors can position according to the prevailing market regime by selecting factors that have historically outperformed under each regime environment to minimise downside risk and maximise upside potential:
Risk-On Equity Factors = High Beta > Cyclicals > Low Volatility > Defensives.
Risk-Off Equity Factors = Defensives > Low Volatility > Cyclicals > High Beta.
Risk-On Fixed Income Factors = High Yield > Investment Grade > Treasuries.
Risk-Off Fixed Income Factors = Treasuries > Investment Grade > High Yield.
Risk-On Commodity Factors = Industrial Metals > Energy > Agriculture > Gold.
Risk-Off Commodity Factors = Gold > Agriculture > Energy > Industrial Metals.
Risk-On Currency Factors = Cryptocurrencies > Foreign Currencies > US Dollar.
Risk-Off Currency Factors = US Dollar > Foreign Currencies > Cryptocurrencies.
In summary, the Market Regime Index is a comprehensive macro risk-management tool that identifies the current market regime and helps investors align portfolio risk with the market’s underlying risk appetite. Its intuitive, color-coded design makes it an indispensable resource for investors seeking to navigate shifting market conditions and enhance risk-adjusted performance by selecting factors that have historically outperformed. While it has proven historically valuable, asset-specific characteristics and correlations evolve over time as market dynamics change.
Multi-Currency Price Comparison[nakano]# Multi-Currency Price Comparison
## Description
A comprehensive Pine Script indicator that displays multiple cryptocurrency prices in different currencies (USD, JPY, KRW) on a single chart. Perfect for traders who want to compare how their base asset performs across different markets and currencies.
複数の通貨（USD、JPY、KRW）での暗号通貨価格を単一チャート上に表示する包括的なPine Scriptインジケーター。異なる市場や通貨でのベースアセットのパフォーマンスを比較したいトレーダーに最適です。
**Features / 機能:**
- **Multi-Currency Display / マルチ通貨表示**: Show USD, JPY, and KRW price lines simultaneously / USD、JPY、KRW価格ラインを同時表示
- **Flexible Display Modes / 柔軟な表示モード**: Line, Bars, or Candles rendering / ライン、バー、ローソク足での描画
- **Custom Ticker Support / カスタムティッカー対応**: Use any base symbol (BTC, ETH, etc.) instead of current chart / 現在チャート以外の任意のベース銘柄（BTC、ETH等）を使用可能
- **Exchange Selection / 取引所選択**: Choose from multiple exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, etc.) / 複数の取引所（Binance、Coinbase、Kraken等）から選択
- **Price Labels / 価格ラベル**: Display original prices with optional deviation percentages / 元の価格を表示、オプションで乖離率も表示
- **Exchange Rate Table / 為替レートテーブル**: Show real-time USD/JPY/KRW exchange rates / リアルタイムのUSD/JPY/KRW為替レートを表示
- **Performance Optimized / パフォーマンス最適化**: Only fetches data when needed / 必要な時のみデータを取得
- **K/M Notation / K/M表記**: Large numbers displayed as 1.5K, 2.3M for better readability / 大きな数値を1.5K、2.3Mとして表示し、可読性を向上
**Use Cases / 使用例:**
- Compare Bitcoin performance in USD vs JPY markets / ビットコインのUSD市場とJPY市場でのパフォーマンス比較
- Monitor altcoin prices across different currency pairs / 異なる通貨ペアでのアルトコイン価格の監視
- Analyze currency impact on crypto valuations / 通貨が暗号通貨評価に与える影響の分析
- Track exchange rate correlations with crypto prices / 為替レートと暗号通貨価格の相関関係の追跡
## Settings
### Currencies / 通貨設定
- **USD**: Toggle USD/USDT line display, choose color and exchange / USD/USDTラインの表示、色、取引所を設定
- **JPY**: Toggle JPY line display, choose color and exchange / JPYラインの表示、色、取引所を設定
- **KRW**: Toggle KRW line display, choose color and exchange / KRWラインの表示、色、取引所を設定
### General / 一般設定
- **Display Mode**: Choose Line, Bars, or Candles rendering / 表示方法を選択（ライン/バー/ローソク足）
- **Plot Style**: Line rendering style (only applies to Line mode) / 価格ラインの描画スタイル（Display ModeがLineの時のみ適用）
- **Use Custom Ticker**: Enable to use custom base symbol / カスタムベース銘柄の使用を有効化
- **Show same-quote currency lines**: Display lines for chart's quote currency / 現チャートと同一通貨建てのラインも表示
- **Show Price Labels**: Display original prices as labels / 最新バーに元の価格をラベルで表示
- **Show Deviation (%)**: Show deviation percentage from current chart price / ラベルに現在チャート価格からの乖離率を表示
### Table / テーブル設定
- **Show Price Table**: Toggle info table display / 価格情報テーブルの表示を切り替え
- **Show Exchange Rates**: Display USD/JPY/KRW exchange rates row / テーブルに為替レート行（USD/JPY/KRW）を表示
- **Position**: Table position (9 positions available) / テーブルの表示位置（9箇所から選択可能）
- **Text Size**: Table text size / テーブルの文字サイズ
## Support
For issues or feature requests, please contact the developer.
問題や機能リクエストについては、開発者にお問い合わせください。
---
**Version**: 1.0
**Author**: nakano
**Pine Script Version**: 6
**Last Updated**: 2025.10.07
MTF RSI Heatmap)# MTF RSI Heatmap — v2.7.2
**Hybrid Higher-TF Trend + Intraday Impulse Detection + Smart Counters & Alerts**
Turn your lower pane into a **multi-timeframe market bias dashboard**. This heatmap blends classic RSI momentum with a **hybrid Daily/Weekly MA-stack trend** and an **intraday impulse override** that flags fast moves *as they happen*. Clean, configurable, and built for real trading flow.
---
## What it shows
* **6 stacked rows = 6 timeframes** (bottom → top).
* **Colors**: Green = Bull, Red = Bear, Yellow = Neutral.
* **Header counter**: `Bull X/6 | Bear Y/6` = live agreement across visible rows.
* **Impulse markers** ▲/▼ on intraday rows (5m/15m/60m/240m) when a shock move triggers.
* **Signal bar**: A thin column above the top row when at least **N of 6** rows align (configurable).
---
## Why it’s different
* **Impulse Override (intraday)**
Detects sharp moves using % change over the last *N* bars, optionally gated by **volume > SMA × multiplier**. This catches dumps/pops earlier than RSI alone.
* **Hybrid D/W (structure over noise)**
Daily/Weekly rows can use an **MA stack (8/21/55)** instead of RSI for a more stable higher-timeframe trend read. Optional **price > fast MA** filter for stricter confirmation.
* **Intrabar option**
Flip rows **during the bar** for early reads (accepting repaint on TF close), or keep it close-only for no surprises.
---
## Key features
* 🌈 **Theme**: Classic or High-Contrast colors.
* 🧠 **RSI thresholds**: Bull above 55, Bear below 45 (editable).
* 🧲 **RSI smoothing** (EMA) for intraday rows to reduce flicker.
* 🧰 **Compact left legend** with adjustable text size & opacity.
* 🚨 **Alerts**:
* **Impulse-only** (per TF and “any intraday”)
* **N-of-6 confirmation** (bull/bear)
---
## Recommended settings (fast opens & news)
* **Impulse**: `Bars = 1–2`, `Threshold = 0.25–0.35%`, `Vol confirm = ON`, `Multiplier = 1.3–1.5`.
* **Hybrid D/W**: `ON`, `EMA 8/21/55`, `Price filter = ON`.
* **Intrabar**: `ON` if you want intra-bar updates (repaints at TF close).
---
## How to read it
1. **Row scan**: Are the bottom (fast) rows aligning first? That’s early momentum.
2. **Header counter**: Look for 4+/6 agreement as momentum broadens.
3. **Signal bar**: Acts as a “go/no-go” confirmation when your threshold is met.
4. **Impulse ▲/▼**: Use as a **heads-up** for acceleration; then watch if rows cascade in that direction.
---
## Alerts (exact names)
Create alerts with these built-ins:
* **Impulse UP — any intraday**
* **Impulse DOWN — any intraday**
* **Impulse UP — TF1 / TF2 / TF3 / TF4**
* **Impulse DOWN — TF1 / TF2 / TF3 / TF4**
* **Bull confirmation** (N-of-6)
* **Bear confirmation** (N-of-6)
Tip: Use **Once per bar** or **Once per bar close** depending on whether you enabled *Intrabar*.
---
## Inputs overview
* **Timeframes & visibility** per row.
* **RSI**: length, bull/bear thresholds, optional EMA smoothing (intraday only).
* **Impulse**: bars, %, volume confirm, SMA length, multiplier, markers.
* **Hybrid D/W**: MA type (EMA/SMA/HMA), 8/21/55 lengths, price filter.
* **Theme & Legend**: color theme, label size (Tiny/Small/Normal), legend opacity.
* **Signal**: N required for confirmation (default 4).
---
## Pro tips
* Combine with **session opens**, **VWAP**, and **liquidity levels**.
* If you trade breakouts, let **impulse triggers** cue attention, then wait for **N-of-6** confirmation.
* For swing bias, lean on **Hybrid D/W**—it changes slower, but with intent.
---
## Notes & limitations
* **Intrabar = repaint expected** on higher-TF closes—by design for earlier context.
* Colors/thresholds are general guidance, not signals by themselves.
* Past performance ≠ future results; **this is not financial advice**.
---
If you enjoy this, drop a ⭐ and tell me what you want next: background shading on confirmation, tooltips with RSI/ROC per row, or a MACD/RSI hybrid mode. Trade sharp! ✨
Crypto Exchange PremiumDescription: Crypto Exchange Premium
The Crypto Exchange Premium indicator is designed to quantify and visualize price disparities between different types of crypto markets — specifically between spot and perpetual futures markets, or between any two customizable sources of price data. By consolidating live data from multiple major exchanges, it creates a unified, cross-market measure of premium (or discount), helping traders identify institutional activity (i. e. by comparing exchanges with high institutional activity against others), arbitrage opportunities, and shifts in market sentiment before they become visible in price action alone.
Concept and Purpose
In cryptocurrency markets, price divergence between spot and perpetual pairs reflects the real-time interaction of demand and liquidity across market segments.
When perpetual prices trade above spot, it implies aggressive long positioning or bullish leverage (positive funding expectations).
Conversely, when spot trades above perps, it may reflect net selling pressure in futures or strong spot accumulation.
Unlike most tools that rely on funding rates or open interest alone, this indicator measures the actual traded price spread dynamically across exchanges. This allows traders to visualize the “premium curve” of the crypto market in a clear, data-driven format.
How It Works
The indicator aggregates real-time prices from a wide selection of exchanges, normalizes them into groups, and computes the difference (“premium”) between two chosen reference markets.
1. Exchange Aggregation:
Users can toggle individual exchanges for both spot and perpetual aggregation groups.
The script automatically calculates group averages by dividing the sum of all enabled exchange prices by the number of valid feeds.
Non-USD exchanges (e.g., KRW pairs on Upbit or Bithumb) are automatically converted into USD using live FX data (USDKRW) for accurate normalization.
2. Flexible Comparison Logic:
Each leg of the comparison (First vs. Second Source) can be chosen as one of:
Local chart symbol
Custom symbol
Aggregated Spot group
Aggregated Perpetual group
This allows users to compare, for example:
Binance Spot vs. Global Perp Average
Coinbase Spot vs. Binance Perp
BTCUSD vs. BTCUSDT.P (or any cross-exchange combination)
3. Premium Calculation:
The final value is computed as:
Premium = First Source Price − Second Source Price
and is plotted as a histogram (positive = green, negative = red). This visual instantly shows whether the first source trades at a premium or discount relative to the second.
How to Use
Select Data Sources:
Configure the “First Symbol” and “Second Symbol” in the settings. For most use cases:
First Symbol → Perps (Aggregated)
Second Symbol → Spot (Aggregated)
Adjust Exchange Selection:
Enable or disable individual exchanges to fine-tune your data set. For instance, disabling Korean exchanges filters out regional FX distortions.
Originality and Value
While many exchange difference or “premium indicators” track one or two exchanges, this script introduces multi-exchange aggregation, cross-market normalization, and user-configurable pairing, resulting in a more holistic and accurate reflection of market structure.
It bridges a gap between macro market breadth and microstructural price dynamics, empowering traders to:
Detect arbitrage inefficiencies between spot and perps.
Track regional price dislocations (USD vs. KRW).
Gauge the intensity of speculative leverage over time.
Anticipate funding rate shifts and liquidation clusters before they happen.
Ajay R5.41🔻 Ajay Gold 3H Sell Power Indicator 🔻
Precision-Based Smart Sell System for Gold (XAU/USD)
💡 Overview
This indicator is specifically designed for Gold (XAU/USD) and delivers best results on the 3-Hour Timeframe (3H TF).
It is a Smart Money Logic-based Sell Confirmation System, combining institutional structure and candle behavior to generate highly accurate bearish signals.
⚙️ Technical Foundation
The indicator uses multiple advanced confirmations:
📉 EMA Trend Filter → Confirms downtrend
💪 RSI Overbought Rejection → Momentum reversal signal
📊 MACD Bearish Cross → Confirms trend strength
🕯️ Bearish Candle Structure → Price action validation
When all conditions align, a clear 🔻 Sell Signal is plotted on the chart.
💎 Hidden Feature
This indicator includes a hidden feature that activates only when the correct market structure forms.
It helps reduce false signals and increases accuracy without being visible on the chart — fully automated internal logic.
📆 Recommended Settings
Symbol: XAU/USD (Gold)
Timeframe: 3-Hour (3H)
Market: Forex / Commodity
Mode: Sell-Only Confirmation Indicator
Performance: Best precision and consistency on 3H TF
📈 How to Use
Select XAU/USD on chart and set 3H timeframe.
Add the indicator to the chart.
Wait for the 🔻 Sell Signal and confirm the market structure after candle close.
Take entry according to your risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only.
No system is 100% accurate — always backtest and demo trade before using in real trading.
💬 Credits
Developed by Ajay Sahu (India)
Based on Institutional & Smart Money Logic
Best results on 3H TF
Hidden Algorithm for XAU/USD traders
Ajay R5.41🔻 Ajay Gold 3H Power Indicator 🔻
Precision-Based Smart Sell System for Gold (XAU/USD)
💡 Overview
This indicator is specifically designed for Gold (XAU/USD) and delivers best results on the 3-Hour Timeframe (3H TF).
It is a Smart Money Logic-based Sell Confirmation System, combining institutional structure and candle behavior to generate highly accurate bearish signals.
⚙️ Technical Foundation
The indicator uses multiple advanced confirmations:
📉 EMA Trend Filter → Confirms downtrend
💪 RSI Overbought Rejection → Momentum reversal signal
📊 MACD Bearish Cross → Confirms trend strength
🕯️ Bearish Candle Structure → Price action validation
When all conditions align, a clear 🔻 Sell Signal is plotted on the chart.
💎 Hidden Feature
This indicator includes a hidden feature that activates only when the correct market structure forms.
It helps reduce false signals and increases accuracy without being visible on the chart — fully automated internal logic.
📆 Recommended Settings
Symbol: XAU/USD (Gold)
Timeframe: 3-Hour (3H)
Market: Forex / Commodity
Mode: Sell-Only Confirmation Indicator
Performance: Best precision and consistency on 3H TF
📈 How to Use
Select XAU/USD on chart and set 3H timeframe.
Add the indicator to the chart.
Wait for the 🔻 Sell Signal and confirm the market structure after candle close.
Take entry according to your risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only.
No system is 100% accurate — always backtest and demo trade before using in real trading.
💬 Credits
Developed by Ajay Sahu (India)
Based on Institutional & Smart Money Logic
Best results on 3H TF
Hidden Algorithm for XAU/USD traders
First Passage Time - Distribution AnalysisThe First Passage Time (FPT) Distribution Analysis indicator is a sophisticated probabilistic tool that answers one of the most critical questions in trading: "How long will it take for price to reach my target, and what are the odds of getting there first?"
Unlike traditional technical indicators that focus on what might happen, this indicator tells you when it's likely to happen.
Mathematical Foundation: First Passage Time Theory
What is First Passage Time?
First Passage Time (FPT) is a concept in stochastic processes that measures the time it takes for a random process to reach a specific threshold for the first time. Originally developed in physics and mathematics, FPT has applications in:
Quantitative Finance: Option pricing, risk management, and algorithmic trading
Neuroscience: Modeling neural firing patterns
Biology: Population dynamics and disease spread
Engineering: Reliability analysis and failure prediction
The Mathematics Behind It
This indicator uses Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), the same stochastic model used in the Black-Scholes option pricing formula:
dS = μS dt + σS dW
Where:
S = Asset price
μ = Drift (trend component)
σ = Volatility (uncertainty component)
dW = Wiener process (random walk)
Through Monte Carlo simulation, the indicator runs 1,000+ price path simulations to statistically determine:
When each threshold (+X% or -X%) is likely to be hit
Which threshold is hit first (directional bias)
How often each scenario occurs (probability distribution)
🎯 How This Indicator Works
Core Algorithm Workflow:
Calculate Historical Statistics
Measures recent price volatility (standard deviation of log returns)
Calculates drift (average directional movement)
Annualizes these metrics for meaningful comparison
Run Monte Carlo Simulations
Generates 1,000+ random price paths based on historical behavior
Tracks when each path hits the upside (+X%) or downside (-X%) threshold
Records which threshold was hit first in each simulation
Aggregate Statistical Results
Calculates percentile distributions (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th)
Computes "first hit" probabilities (upside vs downside)
Determines average and median time-to-target
Visual Representation
Displays thresholds as horizontal lines
Shows gradient risk zones (purple-to-blue)
Provides comprehensive statistics table
📈 Use Cases
1. Options Trading
Selling Options: Determine if your strike price is likely to be hit before expiration
Buying Options: Estimate probability of reaching profit targets within your time window
Time Decay Management: Compare expected time-to-target vs theta decay
Example: You're considering selling a 30-day call option 5% out of the money. The indicator shows there's a 72% chance price hits +5% within 12 days. This tells you the trade has high assignment risk.
2. Swing Trading
Entry Timing: Wait for higher probability setups when directional bias is strong
Target Setting: Use median time-to-target to set realistic profit expectations
Stop Loss Placement: Understand probability of hitting your stop before target
Example: The indicator shows 85% upside probability with median time of 3.2 days. You can confidently enter long positions with appropriate position sizing.
3. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Larger positions when probability heavily favors one direction
Portfolio Allocation: Reduce exposure when probabilities are near 50/50 (high uncertainty)
Hedge Timing: Know when to add protective positions based on downside probability
Example: Indicator shows 55% upside vs 45% downside—nearly neutral. This signals high uncertainty, suggesting reduced position size or wait for better setup.
4. Market Regime Detection
Trending Markets: High directional bias (70%+ one direction)
Range-bound Markets: Balanced probabilities (45-55% both directions)
Volatility Regimes: Compare actual vs theoretical minimum time
Example: Consistent 90%+ bullish bias across multiple timeframes confirms strong uptrend—stay long and avoid counter-trend trades.
First Hit Rate (Most Important!)
Shows which threshold is likely to be hit FIRST:
Upside %: Probability of hitting upside target before downside
Downside %: Probability of hitting downside target before upside
These always sum to 100%
⚠️ Warning: If you see "Low Hit Rate" warning, increase this parameter!
Advanced Parameters
Drift Mode
Allows you to explore different scenarios:
Historical: Uses actual recent trend (default—most realistic)
Zero (Neutral): Assumes no trend, only volatility (symmetric probabilities)
50% Reduced: Dampens trend effect (conservative scenario)
Use Case: Switch to "Zero (Neutral)" to see what happens in a pure volatility environment, useful for range-bound markets.
Distribution Type
Percentile: Shows 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% levels (recommended for most users)
Sigma: Shows standard deviation levels (1σ, 2σ)—useful for statistical analysis
⚠️ Important Limitations & Best Practices
Limitations
Assumes GBM: Real markets have fat tails, jumps, and regime changes not captured by GBM
Historical Parameters: Uses recent volatility/drift—may not predict regime shifts
No Fundamental Events: Cannot predict earnings, news, or macro shocks
Computational: Runs only on last bar—doesn't give historical signals
Remember: Probabilities are not certainties. Use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading plan with proper risk management.
Created by: Henrique Centieiro. feedback is more than welcome!
Customizable Dashboard (SIMPLE)This is a custom table where you can track any ticker and it's daily change. color coded to make things easy.
Intraday Trading Master - Institutionthis is a momentum indicator where you will find the big player entry and exit
Square Root Price Calculator By ABPinescript to Calculate Square root of Price usefull for Gann Lover
CoT Bias Tracker [DOSALGO]Unlock a powerful new dimension in your market analysis with the CoT Bias Tracker . This advanced tool goes beyond price charts to reveal the positioning of the market's largest players, allowing you to track the "smart money" and make more informed trading decisions.
By harnessing the weekly Commitment of Traders (CoT) report, this indicator automatically fetches, processes, and displays the net positioning of Commercials (Hedgers), Non-Commercials (Large Speculators), and Retail traders. Its standout feature is the unique dual-asset analysis for Forex pairs, which automatically breaks down a pair like EURUSD into its Base (EUR) and Quote (USD) components, giving you a crystal-clear view of the capital flows driving the market.
Stop guessing the trend and start tracking the institutional bias that truly matters.
Key Features
📈 Complete CoT Data Analysis: Automatically fetches and displays the latest weekly net positions for three key market participants: Commercials, Non-Commercials, and Retail Traders.
🌍 Unique Forex Pair Analysis: The only tool you'll need for Forex. It intelligently separates pairs (e.g., AUDJPY) into their Base (AUD) and Quote (JPY) currencies and displays a full CoT analysis for each, revealing which currency is truly in demand.
📊 Advanced Bias Dashboard: A comprehensive and fully customizable dashboard provides an at-a-glance summary of the market's sentiment, including current positions, weekly changes, and both short-term and long-term bias readings.
🧠 Conviction Analysis: This indicator goes deeper than just net positions. By analyzing the relationship between positioning changes and Open Interest, it gauges the conviction behind a move, distinguishing between a "Strong Long" (new money entering) and a "Weak Long" (short covering).
🚀 POIV Metric: Includes the Position x Open Interest Volume (POIV) metric, an advanced tool for measuring the cumulative force behind positioning changes over time.
📉 Historical Data Plotting: Visualize the net positioning data and its moving average directly on your chart's indicator pane. This is perfect for identifying historical extremes, divergences, and long-term trends in positioning.
⚙️ Automatic Symbol Recognition: The indicator intelligently detects the asset on your chart—from Forex pairs to indices like the S&P 500 and commodities like Gold—and automatically fetches the correct CoT data.
🎨 Full Customization: Tailor the entire tool to your workspace. Control the dashboard's position, size, and colors. Toggle the visibility of any data row or plot to focus only on what matters to you.
The Dashboard Explained
The dashboard gives you a complete, multi-faceted view of the market's positioning.
Participant Groups:
Commercials: Often considered the "smart money." They use futures to hedge their business operations and typically fade trends, buying into lows and selling into highs.
Non-Commercials: Large speculators like hedge funds and institutions. They are typically trend-followers, and their positioning is a powerful indicator of the current dominant trend.
Retail Traders: Small, non-reportable speculators. They are often seen as a contrarian indicator.
Net Positions & Change: See the raw net long or short positions from the current and previous week's report, along with the net change to understand the weekly capital flow.
S-Term Bias (Short-Term): Based on the weekly net change, this tells you who was buying and who was selling since the last report.
L-Term Bias (Long-Term): Compares the current net position to its moving average to define the dominant positioning trend. (Note: This reading is most effective on the Weekly chart timeframe.)
Conviction (via Open Interest): Found in the "Open Interest" row under the L-Term Bias column, this powerful metric tells you how positions are changing:
Strong Long: New buyers are entering the market with conviction.
Weak Long: Existing shorts are covering their positions.
Strong Short: New sellers are entering the market with conviction.
Weak Short: Existing longs are closing their positions.
Use Cases & Strategy
Trend Confirmation: Use the positioning of Non-Commercials to confirm the strength and direction of a trend you've identified with technical analysis.
Reversal Signals: Look for extreme net positioning levels or divergences between Commercial and Non-Commercial sentiment, which can often precede major market reversals.
Forex Strength Analysis: When trading a pair like GBPJPY, use the dashboard to see if Non-Commercials are strongly bullish on GBP while being bearish on JPY. This "double confirmation" can highlight high-probability trade setups.
Important Notes
Understanding CoT Data: The Commitment of Traders report is released by the CFTC every Friday afternoon (~3:30 PM ET). Crucially, it reflects the positions that were held on the preceding Tuesday. It is a tool for gauging medium- to long-term sentiment, not for intraday signals.
Disclaimer: This tool is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All forms of trading involve risk. Always conduct your own research and apply robust risk management.
Bias Table-manualIt is just at tabular column to manually update Bullish/Bearish for multiple timeframes. Provided date option which is also manual, to denote when the analysis was done and table updated. This will be helpful for multiple stocks/securities analysis on regular basis
Multi-Market Trend-Pullback Alerts (EMA20/50 + RSI) [v6]//@version=6 replaces 5
Some functions (like label.delete) need to be called as methods
Minor syntax tightening around string concatenation and label management
All alertcondition() and table logic still works, but must be explicitly version 6 compatible
TurtleTrader Intraday Extended by exp3rts🐢 TurtleTrader Intraday Extended by exp3rts
A modern intraday adaptation of the classic Turtle Trading strategy, optimized for short-term breakout trading with built-in risk management, pyramiding, and optional trend filters.
This strategy captures strong directional moves by entering breakouts from price channels, using ATR-based stop losses and controlled position scaling.
🔑 Key Features:
📈 Channel Breakout Entries: Buy/sell on breakout of highest highs or lowest lows
🛑 Dynamic ATR Stop Loss: Automatically calculated from market volatility
🔁 Pyramiding: Adds up to 4 positions as price moves in your favor
🔄 Directional Mode: Choose Long-only or Short-only mode
🧠 Skip After Win Option: Avoid overtrading by skipping the next entry after a profitable trade
📊 Optional EMA Display: Plot up to 3 EMAs for trend filtering or visual confirmation
📉 On-Chart ATR Label: Displays real-time ATR metrics (including ½N size used in classic Turtle rules)
⚙️ Strategy Inputs:
Entry/Exit channel length
ATR multiplier and period
Entry delay (bar offset)
Optional trade filter after profitable trades
Show/hide EMAs and ATR label
🧪 Best For:
Intraday breakout traders (works well on 5m–1h timeframes)
Traders who prefer mechanical rules and structured risk
Anyone testing volatility-based entries and exits
Inspired by the original Turtle Trading system — redesigned for modern markets with more intraday flexibility and visual enhancements.
Delta Bubbles by exp3rtsDelta Bubbles is a powerful volume-based order flow tool that detects aggressive market activity, highlights trapped traders, and visualizes key liquidity zones on your chart — perfect for scalpers, intraday traders, and anyone trading momentum or reversals.
🧠 What It Does:
📈 Buy/Sell Bubbles: Detects aggressive buying/selling pressure using a volume delta approximation.
🟩 Trap Zones: Highlights areas where traders likely got trapped (buying in downtrends or selling in uptrends).
⚠️ Potential Traps: Shows lighter “setup” zones for trades that may become traps.
🟥🟩 Colored Bars: Optional trend coloring for visual clarity (based on 50 EMA).
📉 Zone Liquidation: Automatically removes zones once price revisits them.
🧩 Customizable Settings:
Bubble sensitivity and size thresholds.
Trap zone width and minimum bubble size.
Toggle trap liquidation, potential zones, colored bars, and bubble visibility.
📌 How to Use It:
Look for trap zones forming against the trend (e.g., bearish bubble in an uptrend → green trap zone).
Watch for retests of zones — these can be key levels for fades or breakouts.
Combine with price action, support/resistance, VWAP, or other confluence tools.
🚀 Best For:
Scalping and reversal trading on intraday timeframes (5m, 15m).
Futures, indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500), crypto, or any liquid market.
Macro Momentum – 4-Theme, Vol Target, RebalanceMacro Momentum — 4-Theme, Vol Target, Rebalance
Purpose. A macro-aware strategy that blends four economic “themes”—Business Cycle, Trade/USD, Monetary Policy, and Risk Sentiment—into a single, smoothed Composite signal. It then:
gates entries/exits with hysteresis bands,
enforces optional regime filters (200-day bias), and
sizes the position via volatility targeting with caps for long/short exposure.
It’s designed to run on any chart (index, ETF, futures, single stocks) while reading external macro proxies on a chosen Signal Timeframe.
How it works (high level)
Build four theme signals from robust macro proxies:
Business Cycle: XLI/XLU and Copper/Gold momentum, confirmed by the chart’s price vs a long SMA (default 200D).
Trade / USD: DXY momentum (sign-flipped so a rising USD is bearish for risk assets).
Monetary Policy: 10Y–2Y curve slope momentum and 10Y yield trend (steepening & falling 10Y = risk-on; rising 10Y = risk-off).
Risk Sentiment: VIX momentum (bearish if higher) and HYG/IEF momentum (bullish if credit outperforms duration).
Normalize & de-noise.
Optional Winsorization (MAD or stdev) clamps outliers over a lookback window.
Optional Z-score → tanh mapping compresses to ~ for stable weighting.
Theme lines are SMA-smoothed; the final Composite is LSMA-smoothed (linreg).
Decide direction with hysteresis.
Enter/hold long when Composite ≥ Entry Band; enter/hold short when Composite ≤ −Entry Band.
Exit bands are tighter than entry bands to avoid whipsaws.
Apply regime & direction constraints.
Optional Long-only above 200MA (chart symbol) and/or Short-only below 200MA.
Global Direction control (Long / Short / Both) and Invert switch.
Size via volatility targeting.
Realized close-to-close vol is annualized (choose 9-5 or 24/7 market profile).
Target exposure = TargetVol / RealizedVol, capped by Max Long/Max Short multipliers.
Quantity is computed from equity; futures are rounded to whole contracts.
Rebalance cadence & execution.
Trades are placed on Weekly / Monthly / Quarterly rebalance bars or when the sign of exposure flips.
Optional ATR stop/TP for single-stock style risk management.
Inputs you’ll actually tweak
General
Signal Timeframe: Where macro is sampled (e.g., D/W).
Rebalance Frequency: Weekly / Monthly / Quarterly.
ROC & SMA lengths: Defaults for theme momentum and the 200D regime filter.
Normalization: Z-score (tanh) on/off.
Winsorization
Toggle, lookback, multiplier, MAD vs Stdev.
Risk / Sizing
Target Annualized Vol & Realized Vol Lookback.
Direction (Long/Short/Both) and Invert.
Max long/short exposure caps.
Advanced Thresholds
Theme/Composite smoothing lengths.
Entry/Exit bands (hysteresis).
Regime / Execution
Long-only above 200MA, Short-only below 200MA.
Stops/TP (optional)
ATR length and SL/TP multiples.
Theme Weights
Per-theme scalars so you can push/pull emphasis (e.g., overweight Policy during rate cycles).
Macro Proxies
Symbols for each theme (XLI, XLU, HG1!, GC1!, DXY, US10Y, US02Y, VIX, HYG, IEF). Swap to alternatives as needed (e.g., UUP for DXY).
Signals & logic (under the hood)
Business Cycle = ½ ROC(XLI/XLU) + ½ ROC(Copper/Gold), then confirmed by (price > 200SMA ? +1 : −1).
Trade / USD = −ROC(DXY).
Monetary Policy = 0.6·ROC(10Y–2Y) − 0.4·ROC(10Y).
Risk Sentiment = −0.6·ROC(VIX) + 0.4·ROC(HYG/IEF).
Each theme → (optional Winsor) → (robust z or scaled ROC) → tanh → SMA smoothing.
Composite = weighted average → LSMA smoothing → compare to bands → dir ∈ {−1,0,+1}.
Rebalance & flips. Orders fire on your chosen cadence or when the sign of exposure changes.
Position size. exposure = clamp(TargetVol / realizedVol, maxLong/Short) × dir.
Note: The script also exposes Gross Exposure (% equity) and Signed Exposure (× equity) as diagnostics. These can help you audit how vol-targeting and caps translate into sizing over time.
Visuals & alerts
Composite line + columns (color/intensity reflect direction & strength).
Entry/Exit bands with green/red fills for quick polarity reads.
Hidden plots for each Theme if you want to show them.
Optional rebalance labels (direction, gross & signed exposure, σ).
Background heatmap keyed to Composite.
Alerts
Enter/Inc LONG when Composite crosses up (and on rebalance bars).
Enter/Inc SHORT when Composite crosses down (and on rebalance bars).
Exit to FLAT when Composite returns toward neutral (and on rebalance bars).
Practical tips
Start higher timeframes. Daily signals with Monthly rebalance are a good baseline; weekly signals with quarterly rebalances are even cleaner.
Tune Entry/Exit bands before anything else. Wider bands = fewer trades and less noise.
Weights reflect regime. If policy dominates markets, raise Monetary Policy weight; if credit stress drives moves, raise Risk Sentiment.
Proxies are swappable. Use UUP for USD, or futures-continuous symbols that match your data plan.
Futures vs ETFs. Quantity auto-rounds for futures; ETFs accept fractional shares. Check contract multipliers when interpreting exposure.
Caveats
Macro proxies can repaint at the selected signal timeframe as higher-TF bars form; that’s intentional for macro sampling, but test live.
Vol targeting assumes reasonably stationary realized vol over the lookback; if markets regime-shift, revisit volLook and targetVol.
If you disable normalization/winsorization, themes can become spikier; expect more hysteresis band crossings.
What to change first (quick start)
Set Signal Timeframe = D, Rebalance = Monthly, Z-score on, Winsor on (MAD).
Entry/Exit bands: 0.25 / 0.12 (defaults), then nudge until trade count and turnover feel right.
TargetVol: try 10% for diversified indices; lower for single stocks, higher for vol-sell strategies.
Leave weights = 1.0 until you’ve inspected the four theme lines; then tilt deliberately.
GoldenJet - Cumulative Volume DeltaCumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Indicator - Understand Market Sentiment
Overview
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator will help traders decode market sentiment through volume trends. It provides clear visuals and real-time metrics to reveal the strength and direction of market forces.
Benefits for Traders
Gauge Sentiment: CVD uses colored candlesticks to display buying or selling pressure, making it easy to identify bullish or bearish market moods.
Spot Momentum Shifts: Tracks changes in volume flow to highlight emerging trends or weakening momentum.
Flexible Timeframes: Adjust analysis periods (e.g., intraday or daily) to suit your trading approach.
Real-Time Insights: A table shows live volume flow and its changes, offering a quick view of market dynamics.
Key Features
Customizable Display: Set table position and size (small, medium, large) for a clear chart setup.
Intuitive Visuals: Green (buying) or red (selling) candles for instant sentiment recognition.
Trend Metrics: Indicates rising or falling volume trends and their speed for deeper context.
How to Use
Apply CVD to your TradingView chart for any asset.
Configure timeframe and table settings to match your analysis needs.
Interpret candle colors and table data to assess market sentiment.
Combine with other indicators to validate trend direction.
Why It Helps
CVD empowers traders by revealing volume-driven market sentiment, helping you understand whether buyers or sellers are in control. This insight supports better decision-making across various trading strategies.
Synthetic Implied APROverview
The Synthetic Implied APR is an artificial implied APR, designed to imitate the implied APR seen when trading cryptocurrency funding rates. It combines real-time funding rates with premium data to calculate an artificial market expectation of the annualized funding rate.
The (actual) implied APR is the market's expectation of the annualized funding rate. This is dependent on bid/ask impacts of the implied APR, something which is currently unavailable to fetch with TradingView. In essence, an implied APR of X% means traders believe that asset's funding fees to average X% when annualized.
What's important to understand, is that the actual value of the synthetic implied APR is not relevant. We only simply use its relative changes when we trade (i.e if it crosses above/below its MA for a given weight). Even for the same asset, the implied APRs will change depending on days to maturity.
How it calculates
The synthetic implied APR is calculated with these steps:
Collects premium data from perpetual futures markets using optimized lower timeframe requests (check my 'Predicted Funding Rates' indicator)
Calculates the funding rate by adding the premium to an interest rate component (clamped within exchange limits)
Derives the underlying APR from the 8-hour funding rate (funding rate × 3 × 365)
Apply a weighed formula that imitates both the direction (underlying APR) with the volatility of prices (from the premium index and funding)
premium_component = (prem_avg / 50 ) * 365
weighedprem = (weight * fr) + ((1 - weight) * apr) + (premium_component * 0.3)
impliedAPR = math.avg(weighedprem, ta.sma(apr, maLength))
How to use it: Generally
Preface: Funding rates are an indication of market sentiment
If funding is positive, generally the market is bullish as longs are willing to pay shorts funding
If funding is negative, generally the market is bearish as shorts are willing to pay longs funding
So, this script can be used like a typical oscillator:
Bullish: If implied APR > MA OR if implied APR MA is green
Bearish: If implied APR < MA OR if implied APR MA is red
The components:
Synthetic Implied APR: The main metric. At current setting of 0.7, it imitates volatility
Weight: The higher the value, the smoother the synthetic implied APR is (and MA too). This value is very important to the imitation. At 0.7, it imitates the actual volatility of the implied APR. At weight = 1, it becomes very smooth. Perfect for trading
Synthetic Implied APR Moving Average: A moving average of the Synthetic implied APR. Can choose from multiple selections, (SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, VWMA, RMA)
How to use it: Trading Funding
When trading funding there're multiple ways to use it with different settings
Trade funding rates with trend changes
Settings: Weight = 1
Method 1: When the implied APR MA turns green, long funding rates (or short if red)
Method 2: When the implied APR crosses above the MA, long funding rates (or short when crosses below)
Trade funding rates with MA pullbacks
Settings: Weight = 0.7, timeframe 15m
In an uptrend: When implied APR crosses below then above the script, long funding opportunity
In an downtrend: When implied APR crosses above then below the script, shortfunding opportunity
You can determine the trend with the method before, using a weight of 1
To trade funding rates, it's best to have these 3 scripts at these settings:
Predicted Funding Rates: This allows you to see the predicted funding rates and see if they've maxxed out for added confluence too (+/-0.01% usually for Binance BTC futures)
Synthetic implied APR: At weight 1, the MA provides a good trend (whether close above/below or colour change)
Synthetic implied APR: At weight 0.7, it provides a good imitation of volatility
How to use it: Trading Futures
When trading futures:
You can determine roughly what the trend is, if the assumption is made that funding rates can help identify trends if used as a sentiment indicator. It should be supplemented with traditional trend trading methods
To prevent whipsaws, weight should remain high
Long trend: When the implied APR MA turns green OR when it crosses above its MA
Short trend: When the implied APR MA turns red OR when it below above its MA
Why it's original
This indicator introduces a unique synthetic weighting system that combines funding rates, underlying APR, and premium components in a way not found in existing TradingView scripts. Trading funding rates is a niche area, there aren't that many scripts currently available. And to my knowledge, there's no synthetic implied APR scripts available on TradingView either. So I believe this script to be original in that sense.
Notes
Because it depends on my triangular weighting algos, optimal accuracy is found on timeframes that are 4H or less. On higher timeframes, the accuracy drops off. Best timeframes for intraday trading using this are 15m or 1 hour
The higher the timeframe, the lower the MA one should use. At 1 hour, 200 or higher is best. At say, 4h, length of 50 is best
Only works for coins that have a Binance premium index
Inputs
Funding Period - Select between "1 Hour" or "8 Hour" funding cycles. 8 hours is standard for Binance
Table - Toggle the information dashboard on/off to show or hide real-time metrics including funding rate, premium, and APR value
Weight - Controls the balance between funding rate (higher values = smoother) and APR (lower values = more responsive) in the calculation, ranging from 0.0 to 1.0. Default is 0.7, this imitates the volatility
Auto Timeframe Implied Length - Automatically calculates optimal smoothing length based on your chart timeframe for consistent behavior across different time periods
Manual Implied Length - Sets a fixed smoothing length (in bars) when auto mode is disabled, with lower values being more responsive and higher values being smoother
Show Implied APR MA - Displays an additional moving average line of the Synthetic Implied APR to help identify trend direction and crossover signals
MA Type for Implied APR - Selects the calculation method (SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, VWMA, or RMA) for the moving average, each offering different responsiveness and lag characteristics
MA Length for Implied APR - Sets the lookback period (1-500 bars) for the moving average, with shorter lengths providing more signals and longer lengths filtering noise
Show Underlying APR - Displays the raw APR calculation (without synthetic weighting) as a reference line to compare against the main indicator
Bullish Color - Sets the color for positive values in the table and rising MA line
Bearish Color - Sets the color for negative values in the table and falling MA line
Table Background - Customizes the background color and transparency of the information dashboard
Table Text Color - Sets the color for label text in the left column of the information table
Table Text Size - Controls the font size of table text with options from Tiny to Huge
Market Structure DashboardThis indicator displays a **multi-timeframe dashboard** that helps traders track market structure across several horizons: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, H4, H1, M15, and M5.
It identifies the current trend (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral) based on the progression of **swing highs and lows** (HH/HL, LH/LL).
For each timeframe, the dashboard shows:
* The **current structure** (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) with a clear color code (green, red, gray).
* **Pivot information**:
* either the latest swing high/low values,
* or the exact date and time of their occurrence (user-selectable in the settings).
An integrated **alert system** notifies you whenever the market structure changes (e.g., "Daily: Neutral → Bullish").
### Key Features:
* Clear overview of multi-timeframe market structures.
* Customizable pivot info display (values or timestamps).
* Built-in alerts on trend changes.
* Compact and readable dashboard, displayed in the top-right corner of the chart.
This tool is ideal for traders who want to quickly assess the **overall market structure** across multiple timeframes and be instantly alerted to potential reversals.
Market Sentiment Trend Gauge [LevelUp]Market Sentiment Trend Gauge simplifies technical analysis by mathematically combining momentum, trend direction, volatility position, and comparison against a market benchmark, into a single trend score from -100 to +100. Displayed in a separate pane below your chart, it resolves conflicting signals from RSI, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and market correlations, providing clear insights into trend direction, strength, and relative performance.
THE PROBLEM MARKET SENTIMENT TREND GAUGE (MSTG) SOLVES
Traditional indicators often produce conflicting signals, such as RSI showing overbought while prices rise or moving averages indicating an uptrend despite market underperformance. MSTG creates a weighted composite score to answer: "What's the overall bias for this asset?"
KEY COMPONENTS AND WEIGHTINGS
The trend score combines
▪ Momentum (25%): Normalized 14-period RSI, capped at ±100.
▪ Trend Direction (35%): 10/21-period EMA relationships,
▪ Volatility Position (20%): Price position, 20-period Bollinger Bands, capped at ±100.
▪ Market Comparison (20%): Daily performance vs. SPY benchmark, capped at ±100.
Final score = Weighted sum, smoothed with 5-period EMA.
INTERPRETING THE MSTG CHART
Trend Score Ranges and Colors
▪ Bright Green (>+30): Strong bullish; ideal for long entries.
▪ Light Green (+10 to +30): Weak bullish; cautiously favorable.
▪ Gray (-10 to +10): Neutral; avoid directional trades.
▪ Light Red (-10 to -30): Weak bearish; exercise caution.
▪ Bright Red (<-30): Strong bearish; high-risk for longs, consider shorts.
Reference Lines
▪ Zero Line (Gray): Separates bullish/bearish; crossovers signal trend changes.
▪ ±30 Lines (Dotted, Green/Red): Thresholds for strong trends.
▪ ±60 Lines (Dashed, Green/Red): Extreme strength zones (not overbought/oversold); manage risk (tighten stops, partial profits) but trends may persist.
Background Colors
▪ Green Tint (>+20): Bullish environment; favorable for longs.
▪ Red Tint (<-20): Bearish environment; caution for longs.
▪ Light Gray Tint (-20 to +20): Neutral/range-bound; wait for signals.
Extreme Readings vs. Traditional Signals
MSTG ±60 indicates maximum alignment of all factors, not reversals (unlike RSI >70/<30). Use for risk management, not automatic exits. Strong trends can sustain extremes; breakdowns occur below +30 or above -30.
INFORMATION TABLE INTERPRETATION
Trend Score Symbols
▲▲ >+30 strong bullish
▲ +10 to +30
● -10 to +10 neutral
▼ -30 to -10
▼▼ <-30 strong bearish
Colors: Green (positive), White (neutral), Red (negative).
Momentum Score
+40 to +100 strong bullish
0 to +40 moderate bullish
-40 to 0 moderate bearish
-100 to -40 strong bearish
Market vs. Stock
▪ Green: Stock outperforming market
▪ Red: Stock underperforming market
Example Interpretations:
-0.45% / +1.23% (Green): Market down, stock up = Strong relative strength
+2.10% / +1.50% (Red): Both rising, but stock lagging = Relative weakness
-1.20% / -0.80% (Green): Both falling, but stock declining less = Defensive strength
UNDERSTANDING EXTREME READINGS VS TRADITIONAL OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
⚠️ Critical distinctions
Traditional Overbought/Oversold Signals:
▪ Single indicator (like RSI >70 or <30) showing momentum excess
▪ Often suggests immediate reversal or pullback expected
▪ Based on "price moved too far, too fast" concept
MSTG Extreme Readings (±60):
▪ Composite alignment of 4 different factors (momentum, trend, volatility, relative strength)
▪ Indicates maximum strength in current direction
▪ NOT a reversal signal - means "all systems extremely bullish/bearish"
Key Differences:
▪ RSI >70: "Price got ahead of itself, expect pullback"
▪ MSTG >+60: "Everything is extremely bullish right now"
▪ Strong trends can maintain extreme MSTG readings during major moves
▪ Breakdowns happen when MSTG falls below +30, not at +60
Proper Usage of Extreme Readings:
▪ Risk Management: Tighten stops, take partial profits
▪ Position Sizing: Reduce new position sizes at extremes
▪ Trend Continuation: Watch for sustained extreme readings in strong markets
▪ Exit Signals: Look for breakdown below +30, not reversal from +60
TRADING WITH MSTG
Quick Assessment
1. Check trend symbol for direction.
2. Confirm momentum strength.
3. Note relative performance color.
Examples:
▲▲ 55.2 (Green), Momentum +28.4, Outperforming: Strong buy setup.
▼ -18.6 (Red), Momentum -43.2, Underperforming: Defensive positioning.
Entry Conditions
▪ Long: stock outperforming market
- Score >+30 (bright green)
- Sustained green background
- ▲▲ symbol,
▪ Short: stock underperforming market
- Score <-30 (bright red)
- Sustained red background
- ▼▼ symbol
Avoid Trading When:
▪ Gray zone (-10 to +10).
▪ Rapid color changes or frequent zero-line crosses (choppy market).
▪ Gray background (range-bound).
Risk Management:
▪ Stop Loss: Exit on zero-line crossover against position.
▪ Take Profit: Partial at ±60 for risk control.
▪ Position Sizing: Larger when signals align; smaller in extremes or mixed conditions.
KEY ADVANTAGES
▪ Unified View: Weighted composite reduces noise and conflicts.
▪ Visual Clarity: 5-color system with gradients for rapid recognition.
▪ Market Context: Relative strength vs. SPY identifies leaders/laggards.
▪ Flexibility: Works across timeframes (1-min to weekly); customizable table.
▪ Noise Reduction: EMA smoothing minimizes false signals.
EXAMPLES
Strong Bull: Trend Score 71.9, Momentum Score 76.9
Neutral: Trend Score 0.1, Momentum Score -9.2
Strong Bear: Trend Score -51.7, Momentum Score -51.5
PERFORMANCE AND LIMITATIONS
Strengths: Trend identification, noise reduction, relative performance versus market.
Limitations: Lags at turning points, less effective in extreme volatility or non-trending markets.
Recommendations: View on multiple timeframes, combine with price action and fundamentals.
ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse – Ion JaureguiActivTrades Europe Market Pulse Indicator – Detailed Description
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse Indicator is a market analysis tool designed to assess overall risk sentiment in European financial markets. Unlike trading signals, it provides a clear view of market conditions, helping traders and analysts understand whether the market environment favors risk-taking or caution.
How it Works:
The indicator combines three key metrics to gauge European market sentiment:
1. Equity Index and Sector Performance:
o Compares the relative position of major European equity indices and sector ETFs to their 50-day moving averages.
o A performance above the moving average signals market strength, while below indicates relative weakness, reflecting investors’ appetite for risk.
2. German 10-Year Government Bond Yield:
o Monitors the level of the German 10-year bond yield relative to its 10-day moving average.
o Yields above the moving average indicate greater confidence and risk tolerance, while yields below suggest caution or risk aversion.
3. Point-Based Scoring System:
o Each instrument is assigned points depending on whether it is above or below its moving average.
o Points are combined to generate an overall Risk-On/Risk-Off score, which oscillates between -5 (Extreme Risk-Off) and +5 (Extreme Risk-On), providing a quantitative measure of European market sentiment.
Visual Output:
• The results are displayed as a colored histogram, allowing quick interpretation of market conditions.
• Labeled zones include:
o Extreme Risk-On: Indicates bullish conditions with high risk appetite.
o Extreme Risk-Off: Reflects heightened market caution or fear.
o Neutral Zone: Suggests mixed or balanced sentiment.
Purpose and Use:
• Provides investors, analysts, and traders with insight into the prevailing European market mood.
• Supports informed decision-making and risk management strategies without offering explicit buy or sell signals.
________________________________________
Disclaimer:
The information provided does not constitute investment research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and should be considered marketing communication.
All information is prepared by ActivTrades ("AT") and does not contain a record of AT’s prices or constitute an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation is made regarding its accuracy or completeness.
This material does not consider the specific investment objectives or financial situation of any individual. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. AT provides execution-only services. Any action taken based on this information is at the recipient’s own risk. Political and central bank risks are unpredictable. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Indicators Risk Advice: The indicator and publications do not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice. They are designed to provide trend guidance and filter market noise for international users and are not intended for use by users in Spain.
