Italian Law & Eur Affect the MIBToday, the European market started lower, strongly influenced by the rise in global bond yields. This has affected confidence ahead of the release of long-awaited inflation data at the end of the week. Yesterday Wall Street showed some weakness coupled with the Asian market also closing in losses, partly under pressure from rising US Treasury yields as inflation concerns are influencing talk of keeping interest rates higher for longer than desired and expected by analysts. This kept the 10-year bond near its lowest level in recent weeks.
German consumer prices released yesterday rose more than the market forecast in May, so this ensures that attention will be even more focused on the eurozone tomorrow. Expectations are for eurozone inflation to rise by 2.5% year-on-year in May, up from 2.4% in April, which would prompt the ECB to react by cutting rates next week, but this moment of uncertainty is making investors and speculators alike nervous.
During the first hour of European trading, the market has turned around recovering those lost positions and Europe is currently in “thinking green”. This may be related to the fact that the ECB may not have to worry about the dollar for a while and may concentrate on finding a path to stability as they believe the EURUSD will remain sideways as a carry-on-trade currency, which was a very strong focus of concern as a 1% drop in the euro against the dollar according to Swiss Re means about 12 basis points of inflation in the euro zone, hence this could be felt as a risk to European prices. With a defensive dollar, this risk has softened. The May meeting has greatly tempered the waters of a Jerome Powel looking to cut interest rates.
Focusing our attention on the Milan Stock Exchange, already on the 27th the Italian parliament has supported a bill to shore up its stock exchange trying to attract investors and trying to compensate for the losses of important companies that were listed on it due to other markets and acquisitions that have taken place. This plan, although it may seem counterproductive and discourage foreign investments, allows companies to issue shares that increase up to 10 times the voting rights of old investors, while Italy seeks to curb relocations to the Netherlands, which seems to be the country of choice for companies that make it easier for established shareholders to maintain tight control over companies. This provision has infuriated large funds that are pro: “one share, one vote”, which prevents the concentration of power in the hands of a few. Although there are lawyers arguing about the ambiguity of the bill, the government has committed to review a possible law amendment by the end of the year.
Looking at the chart, since the publication of the amendment, the index has lost -2.65% until today's opening. The European trend has meant that today the FTSE MIB (Ticker AT: ITA40) has recovered 0.90%.
What is clear is that if this uncertainty continues to be sustained, it is possible that an oversold situation will exist throughout the summer until this law is corrected.
In a one-hour chart, at this moment, the price formation has a mono-bell disposition with a checkpoint price around 34,846 points.
Currently the current range is between 34,876.19 and 33,988.40 so it could be said that it is exactly in the middle of the channel. The RSI is currently around 47% so there is hardly any imbalance. It is very possible that we will see the index fluctuating around that price average for a season.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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ITA40 trade ideas
Borsa Italiana tp $48KA return move to previous high's
is what the inverse head 7 shoulders is forecasting.
Which is likely to happen in the next couple years.
30 years to get back to those levels!
An entire generation!
It's why deep capital markets , technology, having the reserve currency $, some financial doping, an entrepreneurial workforce, and degen investor base all combined to push the US market to dizzying heights.
ITALY 40 Bearish Heist Plan Down SideHola Ola Smart Traders,
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ITALY PREPARING FOR NEXT LEG TO THE BULL MARKETThe Italy 40 index, or the FTSE MIB, is considered the benchmark for the national Italian stock exchange, the Borsa Italiana. The index consists of the 40 most capitalized and liquid stocks that are listed on the Borsa Italiana.
The IT40 now seems to have begun rising in what is expected to be the wave iii of 3 for the index. This particular wave is expected to take the index towards the 40K mark from the current 29k mark(a hefty 40% move).
The index of the European country is one more global index to be added to list of several others on the move in a bull market that can go on for several more years to come(of course with regular corrections and pauses on the way).
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only
SELL ITA40 - S-tier setupWe have to wait for the zone. Keep in mind that this index always respects the zones, but if you want to be safe,I recommend taking an early entry with a 3% deviation of my entry point.
Mib rising wedgeWhen a pattern like that shows, it never ends well. Mib is facing overhead resistance in 28.000. A quick move downwards would be a buying opportunity.
FTSE MIB Faces the EMA 100: A Dance of Bulls and Bears🔥 **Burning Point of Interest:**
The FTSE MIB, Italy's premier market barometer, has gracefully touched the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). For those in the know, this is not just a number but a *trend-defining moment*. Let’s dive deep and see what this rendezvous means for traders.
**Stats Don't Lie:**
In the past 6 months:
- 3 times the FTSE MIB kissed the EMA 100 and rebounded with an average gain of 5.7%.
- The 2 times it broke below, a downturn of approximately 4.3% followed.
**What’s Next? Buckle Up!**
1. **Green Lights Ahead (Bullish Scenario):** A spirited bounce off the EMA 100 could be a call to action for the bulls. If the FTSE MIB steers north and holds firm above this level, traders might be cruising on the profit highway.
2. **Red Flags Waving (Bearish Scenario):** Should the index dip below, the bears might have their day in the sun. For those with a risk-averse appetite, it's a cue to tread carefully or even consider temporary exits.
**Mark Your Calendars: Economic Events To Watch!**
1. **Italian Industrial Production Data:** Historically, a 1% swing here has correlated with a 2% move in FTSE MIB.
2. **ECB’s Big Day:** A whisper of rate hikes or cuts can send shockwaves across European indices.
3. **Consumer Pulse – Italian Style:** The last spike in consumer confidence translated to a 3-week bullish trend for FTSE MIB.
4. **Eurozone’s GDP Play:** With Italy playing a pivotal role, a 0.5% change in GDP growth can make or break market sentiments.
**1D Trading Goldmine:**
Use the EMA 100 as your compass. Staying above? Chart bullish territories. Sinking below? Adjust your sails for bearish waters.
**In a Nutshell:**
It’s not just about the numbers; it's the story they weave. As FTSE MIB flirts with the EMA 100, traders have a thrilling chapter ahead. However, always keep a keen eye on the economic horizon and political tension🚀📉📈
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40
Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.
The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.
Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.
Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;
- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)
Lets see what happens.
PUKA
ITALIAN ECONOMY AS REQUESTED BY A VIP SUBThe decrease in consumer price inflation in Italy could potentially have a positive impact on the country's economy, as it may help alleviate some of the pressures on households and businesses caused by high inflation. However, the impact on the overall economy may be limited, as inflation is only one of many factors affecting economic growth.
The performance of the Italian stock market, as reflected by the FTSE MIB index, is likely to be influenced by a range of factors beyond inflation, including global economic conditions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. The recent losses experienced by the banking sector could be a concern for the economy, as banks play a critical role in providing credit to businesses and households.
In terms of the euro currency, the projected decline in HICP inflation in 2023 and beyond could potentially be viewed as a positive development by investors, as it may alleviate some of the concerns about inflation and reduce the likelihood of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. However, the euro's performance will also be influenced by a range of other factors, including global economic conditions, political developments, and the outlook for monetary policy in other major economies.
It's been an exciting week for the Italian economy as stocks continue to rise further. The European Commission's Winter Interim Forecast has lifted the growth outlook for this year to 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area, which is great news for those invested in the region. Additionally, the decrease of inflation target in Europe in 2023 is expected to provide even more upward momentum for the economy. While the recent positivity has brought the Italian stocks up to a key resistance zone at 28,000, some experts are cautioning that it looks overbought in the short-term. However, there could be a big appreciation on the horizon, making now an excellent time to consider investing in the Italian and euro economy after we get the pullback to level out price action.
Short Ftse MibHi,
I shorted FtseMib at $24542. I'm reloading my short at this level $24225.
My Final targets at $21225 & $20250.
SL at $25200
Reasons: ECB raising rates, recession incoming: less production and less consumptions --> lower dividends.
FTSEMIB had a rally recently, that it's not driven by FA. So, I'm expecting a correction during the first semester of 2023.
In Addition, Italy will be the most exposed country to recession in the Euro zone. (recent IMF and ECB analysis claims).
FTSE MIB (short Idea)Hi,
I have in mind 2 scenarios.
Currently INDEX:FTSEMIB is at the upper band of the BB, very close to its resistance level. I think it will be rejected and approach the support (1st rectangle area).
At this point,
IF global market conditions will be good and expected (and I mean SPX + Eurozone Interest rate), then INDEX:FTSEMIB may rebounce from this area and try to break the resistance line. [ scenario A ]
IF global market conditions will NOT be good and SPX will be rejected from its trendline, then INDEX:FTSEMIB may retest the 2nd support area.
events noted: Today Lagarde's speech and on 2nd Feb the Eurozone monetary policy
FTSE MIB SHORTIt will at least go back to previous lows then we will see based on how the government is working
Italy40 Bear trendItaly soared today based on mere positive unemployment data regarding Spain (due to the countries having more or less same situation/economical foundation).
But these data does not have anything to do with Italy.
As the ADX shows, the Italian index goes up today but without an indication of a strong trend. This could show us, that the index will go down again.
If the Italian index will go down tomorrow, this week or the coming week is not important, IT WILL GO DOWN - ITS THAT SIMPLE.
The Italian economy simply can't handle the increasing interest rates from ECB + the situation regarding inflation.
An economy based on tourism will suffer when all the tourists have to save on travels and use that money on electricity bills instead.
Again... IT WILL GO DOWN - ITS THAT SIMPLE.
it40 short selling my idea is it 40 short selling hammer selling candels and volumes low and low divergens make not new high and still markete will sell
Italy FTSE MIB index analysis: Draghi out, worst yet to come? Ten years after rescuing the euro with the iconic "Whatever it takes", Mario Draghi resigns as Italian Prime Minister, as the political parties that formed his majority no longer backed him.
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election reigns supreme, and the political crisis in Italy risks putting further downward pressure on the Italian FTSE MIB ( IT40 ) index due to widening yield spread between Italian (BTP) and German Bunds.
The BTP-Bund spread, measured as yield difference between IT10Y and DE10Y is now at 2.34 percent (or 234 basis points). Historically, the FTSE MIB index has had a strong and inverse link with the yield spread between Italy and Germany. The FTSE MIB index saw increased volatility as a result of BTP-Bund spread spikes, since they reflect a gauge of credit conditions and country risk in Italy.
Draghi's departure along with the announcement of early elections with populist parties on the rise, could now push the BTP-Bund spread above 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised warning bells and resulted in significant sell-off in the FTSE MIB index.
Technically, the major trend remains bearish, and the 14-day RSI has been trading below the 50 level for the previous month and a half. However, the momentum indicator is not showing oversold conditions.
If the BTP-Bund spread increases beyond 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised concerns in Italy, the FTSE MIB might suffer a more serious selloff in the coming weeks, possibly breaking below the 20.000 mark.
Large correction -34% will see investors dumping the FTSEMIBThe FTSEMIB will see a further large correction -34% retracing to FTSEMIB 14200 points. Stocks listed on the index have small capitalization, low dividends and awful Returns. The Italian economy could be tipping into a Recession in future, thereby lowering growth prospects, stock returns and profitability.
FTSEMIB chart on a larger time scale, already highlights an ongoing drawdown in the index, with an Inverse Cup & Handle pattern, that will continue with a further -34% drawdown onto FTSEMIB 14200 points.
IT40:The real excuse for more strict restrictions in ItalyHi everyone!
As showed in my previous analysis on Dow Jones Industrial index(US30),also on the Italian major index we can see shaping a strong reversal trend patter(Head&Shoulder) on monthly timeframe.
Also,we can notice that the bull trend started last year in April,due to huge injections of liquidity made by ECB given by a so called tool named Quantitative Easing,it's running out of steam...
Technically we could say that,but in reality the end of this run is the result given by the fact that ECB will finish soon to inject money in the market(QE),and big speculators knowing so are starting to take off their profits.
With the actual pattern given by market structure I can see the value of the Italian index dropping to next strong support level,which is around 22000/22500 €.
Please feel free to share the idea or add a comment below :)
Hot winter is coming........
IT40- Long potential , indices reversal?Going into the next few trading sessions i see a long on IT 40 as a viable position.
From technicals we have potential to move lower by a further 200 points, i however see a reversal from the current region potentially sending the index higher.
TP and SL are on screen.
This is not financial advice.
it40 INDEX SHORT 15mibmy idea for this index ! t will hit this resistant point and bounce back making new low!
Global Markets Overview, Section 1Global Markets Overview, Section 1 - Japan, China, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy.
Global Markets Overview, Section 1Global Markets Overview, Section 1 - Japan, China, UK, Stoxx 50, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy.
Global Markets Overview, Section 1Global Markets Overview, Section 1 - Japan, China, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy,
