This is a continued short from where I published the alert of the right shoulder of this massive Head and Shoulders pattern playing out. The H&S is actually sitting on top of a long rising trend line (orange) in the chart. As you can see, that trend line has been breached. Look for a slow grind to $102. Gold is being challenged as a store of value, by that other...
Opened a 'poor mans covered call' on GLD.
Going long on this alternative asset class to diversify the portfolio. My overall bias is higher gold based on the technical price trend since 2016 and expect we'll soon see a reversion towards the mean/median price range.
Bought the OCT 112 CALL at 86 deltas, 105 days to expiration as a stock replacement for 8.12
and...
The final e circle wave of the triangle should have just ended at within a few dollars of my target based on the relationships of the earlier waves. The next move up should be a sudden thrust C that would equal A in the minor fractal ABC. Supporting this oncoming thrust is the 94% bears reading this week...all those short positions will have to be covered...
Eyeballing past cycles, the bottom, marked at halfway point aka 80days from now,
---good--resistance at the midline, reverses* alot or a little, then heads to the top with the last balancing green volume spike, balancing out the trend as interest rates lower.
Gold has been getting hammered in recent weeks. But now could be the time for GLD to get off the mat.
The big glaring point is a three pointed bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Other indicators are also oversold, and have the whole road available to travel.
Also, previous behavior in GLD is that it often forms these V-bottom patterns when it...
Looks like B of primary ABC correction is developing into a running triangle. The current wave "e" of triangle B should end around a .618 retracement of A, so approximately 109. Then primary C will kick in for a nice long ride until C equals A at/near primary 4 in price, around 140.
At that point, the cycle degree correction of the last few years should...
The recent bearish feeling around gold has pushed prices back down to an interesting level. This is a long-term trade with a good risk-reward ratio. Also, as always, a good way to diversify a portfolio heavy in equities.
Clear floor being set with volume on GLD, the test of lows brought in demand again and straight line move off bottom. Someone is buy the lows with vigor and using this range to cover shorts from spring highs and accumulate. Bears need to go on vacation or take profits before MM does. FOMC or JOBS numbers could set off the rocket. Cheers
My recent posts on GLD focused on the dimensions of Momentum and Price.
This post focus is on the Time dimension.
The metals markets will sometimes have significant turns at Lunar and Solar Eclipses.
7/27/18 there will be a total Lunar Eclipse.
If GLD can make a marginal new low this could be a fantastic buying opportunity.
Mark
