Se analisarmos os 3 mercados, Títulos americanos da divida pública de 10 anos (no topo), Ações (linha verde) e Commodities(linha amarela), perceberemos como está se formando um novo ciclo de 10 anos de baixa, assim que os títulos começarem a cair, iniciará esse novo ciclo. Este tipo de ciclo de mercado se dá quando as ações são as primeiras a cair e há um aumento...
the bond market is right. this is likely to get worse before it gets better.
yea. watch the 10 and 2 year cross. weeeeeee
Erm?! Powell reigns from the school of hard knocks he's conditioned/ a Paul volcker fan boy. Traditionally when inflation is the problem yes there's a time to tilt hawkish in this scenario disinflation is the problem. If they come out swinging in the mins.. it'll be a drastic mistake. If they don't suggest a rate cut as the fed funds rates are suggesting this will...
theres a short amount of time to defuse the bomb. bonds and fic are reflecting the reality of the situation in china ie. when china devalues they import inflation and export deflation. hawkish retoric needs to calm down if anything we need dovish language, the pboc needs to step in and get their currency below the red line, and the 10 year note auction needs to go...
bullard coming out hawkish, brainard uncertain about uncertainty. yea should be a fun ride
this spike in treasury vol is due to repricing of rate cut expectations. yesterday post powell rate cut expecations for sept were roughly 30%. post trump/repricing. we're at 70-80% odds for another quarter point cut in sept. congrats el 'presedente you did it
both speakers will have a push and pull between the bund vs 10 year. this push and pull in my opinion will cause a lot of uncertainty in the 10 yr note/"the move" likely equities are to go lower when the move moves. move move move move. be sure to hedge and have fun
so exciting. muhahahaha
aweeee. yea 10 year note auction one of the lowest ive seen in a while awaiting the mins to strike the match. retail can play by going long TLT
based on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally....
growth concerns still looming large, just lurking in the background. eurozone data and FOMC language may drive bond volatility higher. eurozone M3 showing the printing press is on in order to weaken the euro participants are likely to buy DXY. in order to buy DXY theyre likely to buy bonds. we're in for weird awkward times where everyone trips over their...
this is a realized volatility moment similar to december's move, but this time dovish tones may work in opposite fashioned. the fomc has placed themselves on the sides, however interest rate differentials will play a pivotal role on the months ahead. many have noticed rates, and currencies fluctiating like trump-coin.. and the expansion of velocity in the 10 year...
Buckle your seatbelts we're gearing up for a realized volatility rollercoaster ride. As I've been mentioning in past posts what we need to worry about isn't equity volatility but macro driven bond volatility that can spark contagion in equities. The levers of risk on risk off can be extreme (December melt down), but here's a basic premise of how the game works....
welcome to the year of the pig. we're now in the later stages of the expansion. it may be scary but inflationary assets may shine and shimmer as the yield curve steepens. this chart shows the contraction/expansion of overall credit. FIC, entitlement reform, political uncertainties, and deflationary pressures will play an ongoing part. the question is will the...