With Yields and bonds having a reverse correlation, I am expecting bonds to continue trading higher, targeting the 121.02 EQ range.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
-...
With projected longs in the yields markets, I was anticipating a continue in the reverse correlated pair, bonds in which I wanted to see us run on daily sell stops, stretching for the 116.17, 50% equilibrium.
What we got was a sweep of daily buy stops with the possibility of a continuation up to the psychological number 120 which I would be awaiting a rip through...
ZB is a beautiful asset to be long, price action is up 10 and 20 MA and the simple MACD has a crossover signal below the 0 line, ultra bullish for the bond market!!!
This chart of long term treasury bond futures indicates an impulsive move off of the October 2023 low. Since that impulse topped out in a first wave (or an A wave), price has retraced very nicely into the expected depth of correction guideline of the fourth wave of lessor degree. The correction unfolded as a double zigzag that met a the alternate wave guideline of...
TVC:US10Y and CBOT:ZB1! are strong reverse correlation between each other and with last weeks price action proving to be mainly bearish, I do not believe the pain to the downside has ended...
With TVC:US10Y Thursday's daily bearish hammer forming @ the bullish order block created on Monday, we witnessed a bullish shooting star in CBOT:ZB1! , Thursdays candle...
Next in line is the T-Bond Futures market with the chances of this asset doing the complete opposite of US10Y 98% of the time.
Observing my bias, the biggest risk I face is the ZB1! repricing sharply next week to capitalise on the buy stops above all the short term and intermediate term highs up to 121.10.
Moreover, the overall sentiment on bonds is bearish...
We saw 6 high impact news released to the market yesterday and it gave me the volatility needed in order for deep liquidity pools to be tested, namely CME_MINI:ES1! daily bullish orderblock located @ 4976 since I was anticipating shorts yesterday to sellside levels.
Any day that has more than 3 high impact news releases, expect some form of volatility. If not,...
The 30-Year Bond seems to have found support at the 89 EMA aligning with a trend line, it seems that demand for this maturity will pick up soon which would result in the 30-year Yield dropping to around 3.5%. I do however think this drop in yields will be temporary, but the move down in 30 year yields and the move up in the 30-Year Bond Futures will likely be...
Many funds that hold 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds have to get their ratios back by the end of the month. With stocks outperforming bonds all month, funds held too much stock relative to bonds. They had to sell stock and buy bonds yesterday.
30-year Bond Futures are currently trading in proximity to crucial support levels, with particular
emphasis on the 200-Day EMA, which has consistently served as a support level since the
beginning of the trading year.
Key Developments:
As 2024 commenced, the markets found themselves at a crossroad regarding interest rate
expectations. There were concerns about...
Currently ZB futures are in the buy zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the sell phase.
Bonds don't matter all the time with equities. But if the /ZB breaks down, it would show a solid divergence with stocks. That would provide a big headwind for the SPX to make all-time highs.
