ZBvUS10Y 5/20/24Please read descriptions in chart on analysis.
overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's data
ZBZ2018 trade ideas
Bonds - Bearish - First Week of JuneContinued bearishness, expecting MMSM to continue here. Bonds have filled & closed below Weekly Fair Value with equal lows on ZF. Although there was SMT at the lows, SMT on the highs printed shortly after followed by bearish order flow on the weekly chart.
Will 50/50 Funds have to Dump the NDX and SPX Friday?Funds that keep a portfolio of 50 percent bonds an 50 percent stocks are now too long the equities. Many times at the end of the month, these funds will have to rebalance. That could lead to big equity sell-offs.
$ZB/$TLTvUS10Y - Daily ChartBonds look to have a relief rally look to them.
However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower
- This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS
- With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates
- However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields
HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈
COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
$TLT/US10Y Bonds look to have a relief rally look to them.
However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower
- This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS
- With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates
- However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields
HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈
COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
ZB1! - Correlation With Yields Align It was tricky to outline bias for this week due to the in-alignment in price action between yields and bonds but with more price action printed for me to analyse, it’s a clearer picture for next weeks trading.
Rangebound throughout the week with Monday and Wednesday being the days price action traded as a ‘inside day’, inside of a weekly fair value gap and macro EQ.
Area of interest is 115.24 and 115.05
ZB1! - Double Bottom MatrixSimilar to yield, we have had a one sided approach in regards of price action with the weekly highs being made @ 116.18.
My projection for short term bonds is 114.25 double bottom sweep.,
Short Sweet Simple
ZB1! - Pending Explosion In The CardsBeautiful price action throughout last week!
Weekly range spans from 115.05 - 112.27 and we have failed to see a run in sellstops even though we have been in a continued bear trend. 113.10 was the area of interest as well as the weekly bullish order block that was mentioned last week and price action bounced of 112.27 like gang busters!
We have opened the new week bullish with intraday Buyside @ 114.10 bagged and tagged but I think there is further bullish price action in the cards, with 115 psychological number being daily bearish order block looming ahead.
115 is my first point of interest with the mean threshold @ 115.10 being the second point of interest.
Sweet Short & Sharp!
Understanding the Decline in ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures)ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures) has witnessed a notable downtrend recently, prompting traders to seek insights into the underlying reasons for this decline. In this analysis, we will delve into various factors contributing to ZB1!'s downward trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
Breakdown of Support Levels: ZB1! has breached critical support levels on the price chart, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment. This breakdown suggests increased selling pressure and a potential shift in market dynamics towards bearishness.
Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover pattern known as the "death cross." This technical signal often suggests a prolonged downtrend, as short-term momentum weakens relative to longer-term trends.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator is indicating oversold conditions, implying that ZB1! may be due for a temporary rebound or consolidation. However, traders should exercise caution, as oversold conditions can persist during strong downtrends, and the RSI alone may not signal a reversal.
Fundamental Analysis:
Rising Interest Rates Expectations: Expectations of rising interest rates can exert downward pressure on bond prices. As interest rates increase, existing bonds with lower yields become less attractive to investors, leading to selling pressure in the bond market. Traders should monitor central bank communications and economic data releases for clues regarding future interest rate policy.
Inflation Concerns: Elevated inflation expectations can negatively impact bond prices. Investors demand higher yields to compensate for the eroding purchasing power of fixed-income investments in an inflationary environment. Any indications of rising inflation or hawkish comments from central banks may contribute to the decline in ZB1!.
Improving Economic Outlook: A robust economic outlook can diminish the appeal of safe-haven assets like bonds. Positive economic data releases, such as strong GDP growth, declining unemployment rates, or improving consumer confidence, may prompt investors to rotate out of bonds and into riskier assets, resulting in downward pressure on ZB1!.
Conclusion:
In summary, multiple factors, both technical and fundamental, are influencing the decline in ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures). Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly, considering short-term trading opportunities and long-term investment perspectives. Additionally, risk management is paramount in navigating volatile market conditions and mitigating potential losses.
30YR BOND vs US10YDivergence with ZB showing strength suggests that yields could push lower to start the week before FOMC Wed
ZB showing strength comparatively with the Yields, which can suggest a retracement higher in bonds and reduction in yields before FOMC
More evidence of specifically ZB 30yr Note strength with it refusing to be repriced lower with the ZN/ZF. Suggests ZB can see higher price this week atleast in the beginning of the week
BONDSZB showing strength comparatively with the Yields, which can suggest a retracement higher in bonds and reduction in yields before FOMC
More evidence of specifically ZB 30yr Note strength with it refusing to be repriced lower with the ZN/ZF. Suggests ZB can see higher price this week atleast in the beginning of the week
Bonds "Bull Flag" Break Could Accelerate Downside QuicklyI find the position of Bonds very precarious going into this week. I've heard it said that Bonds are are in total "hands off" mode or "anything but bonds" is said right now. Nobody wants them... and if they fall fast it could literally cause a "Bond Crisis." So this is going to be an important watch.
In the shortest time frame I see a potential Leading Diagonal down, which has a very small correction 50% maximum) already started. My stop is above 62% of this tiny decline. If the natural targets of this leading diagonal are hit that points to a very fast move of 3 points to the 123% - which will be a definitive break of the bull flag. And I think that will create the 1st wave of an extended 5th wave which could target 3.6 or 4.6 extensions for the larger 1-2. That would be a fall of 7 or 11 points and basically 5% yield.
...Which could be dubbed a crisis in the short term.
ZB1! - Cra$hed & BurnedLast week’s projection was short throughout the week and boyyy did we get shorts!
Monday got the ball rolling with a bearish decline of -1.67% with all further retracements not fulfilling the open of Monday’s trading, insinuating that the bulls are loosing strength. To confirm this bias, we can clearly see on Friday that smart money tried to sweep buystops and entice buyers to join in and take profit by the 116 equilibrium but it failed incredibly, sharply retracing in the inter-day timeframe and closing out as a bullish shooting star but below the bullish daily order block which signifies weakness by bulls.
Current market structure is rangebound throughout the overall week but 113.10 daily sellside is where I will have eyes fixed to. This is not 100% but if yields are to appreciate, there’s a very strong possibility that bonds will continue to decline.
Overall short target is 112.27 for the week as this coincides with the weekly bullish order block.
Would be in for a continued full run in the dollar index?
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
T-Bonds Down Trend ContinuationZB: We got a sell signal based on COT Data in direction of weekly down trend. The correction of weekly trend ended. On daily chart we are in a down trend again. I am waiting for my entry pattern to trade this market short in direction of weekly down trend and cot data.
ZB1! - Three Weeks Of Consistent DeclineNotice when bonds decline, yields appreciate?
Thats due to the inverse correlation in price action.
115.10 weekly OB was respected this week but price action failed to close below indicating some form of retracement in the cards next week.
112.27 is another weekly OB that i have in mind that the algorithm could reprice down to with bullish yields on upto the weekly fair value gap aiding my bias.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
ZB1 weekly analysis
ZB1 continues to trend lower, with a brief respite after finding support liquidity on Tue 03 Sep '13. This occurred alongside a favorable market environment following a drop in inflation. However, after Q1, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain fixed until 2025. This has led to a continuous decline in ZB1, targeting lower lows and aiming for short-term support liquidity around 107'05. The subsequent target, if the price continues to drop, would be 103'22.
In technical analysis, we observe the market absorbing liquidity before rallying to reach the order block for a liquidity purge.
Sell June Bond limit at 119.11 buy stop 120.23. TP 117.07Looking to sell March 30 year bonds ahead or during NFP report tomorrow
U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Correction Potentially Complete
I decided to mark up this chart for entertainment purposes as I do with all other of my ideas.
Since I firmly believe that the markets are due for a major correction, Bond prices(less risky assets) should rise.
In my humble opinion..............
ZB Bonds Down TrendI will be looking for a false break reversal sell around NY session time to poke above the high a tad and continue in the down direction.
This market is in a downtrend and is making lower highs and lower lows.
I will expect a deeper pullback at some time to retest the 200sma again.
This of course depends on how it plays out tomorrow
ZB1! - Slippery Slope Of DeathThursday is the only day throughout the week that the bulls showed their strength. Overall Sentiment has been bearish throughout 2024 with things not looking to change anytime soon, especially if the long term highs @ 120.20 is not taken care of by the bulls.
116.21 daily liquidity void is where I have my eyes set to if we are to see yields continue it's bull run.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
ZB1! - Usually Correlation is Tight With Yields...After Monday's sell-off, bonds continued to trickle higher, running through the weekly highs @ 120.06 closing for the week @120.14.
Last week, I set out two bullish projections; 120.08 being T1 and 121.01 (now updated to 121.02) for T2. This weeks first target is 121.02 with a possibility for a continued bullish run up to the daily liquidity void starting from 122.11.
This bias goes hand in hand with yields continuing to sell-off, enticing short traders to continue to pile buy stops above recent highs increasing the likelihood for smart money to capitalise from.
Trading below Monday's bullish order block @119.06 will bring me back to the drawing board.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
ZB1! - Playing It Safe With LongsWith bonds 90%* of the time doing the opposite to yields, its safe to say the bond market has a higher possibility of continuing the rally up to weekly swing high/low equilibrium @ 120.08 with a stretch target of 121.02.
Playing safe this week and only aiming for low hanging fruits as the overall price action for the tickers I analyse does not give me all the signatures I need to spread my wings.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Sell US Bonds 118.18 limit. Stop 120.01, target 117.23Looking to sell US Bonds at 118.18 limit, technical patterns showing possible resumption of downward pressure. Stop will be 120.01, target will be 117.23
